CLIMATIC RISK ATLAS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLIES JOsEF SETTELE, OTAKAR KUDRNA, ALEXANDER HARPKE, INGOLF KUHN, CHRIS VAN SWAAY, RUDI VEROVNIK, MARTIN WARREN, MArTIN WIEMERS, JAN FH1ANSPACH, THOMAS HICKLER, ELISABETH KUHN, INGE VAN HALDER, KARS VELING, ALBERT VLIEGENTHART, IRMA WYNHOFF & OLIVER SCHWEIGER Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies by JOSEF SETTELE, OTAKAR KuDRNA, ALEXANDER HARPKE, INGOLF KUHN, CHRIS VAN SWAAY, RUDI VEROVNIK, MARTIN WARREN, MARTIN WIEMERS, JAN HANSPACH, THOMAS HICKLER, ELISABETH KUHN, INGE VAN HALDER, Kars VELING, ALBERT VLIEGENTHART, IRMA WYNHOFF & OLIVER SCHWEIGER Biorisk 1 (Special Issue) > PENSOFT. SOFIA—Moscow 2008 CLIMATIC Risk ATLAS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLIES Josef Settele', Otakar Kudrna’, Alexander Harpke', Ingolf Kithn', Chris van Swaay’, Rudi Verovnik’, Martin Warren’, Martin Wiemers®, Jan Hanspach', Thomas Hickler’, Elisabeth Kithn', Inge van Halder’, Kars Veling’, Albert Vhegenthart’, Irma Wynhoff’? ¢ Oliver Schweiger' 1 UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, D-06120 Halle, Germany 2 Naturmuseum Sudtirol, Bindergasse 1, 1-39100 Bozen (Siidtirol), Italy 3 De Vlinderstichting — Dutch Butterfly Conservation, P.O. Box 506, 6700 AM Wageningen, The Netherlands 4 DruStvo za proucevanje in ohranjanje metuljev Slovenije (DPOMS) , Stara Deckova cesta 14, 3000 Celje, Slovenia 5 Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset BH20 5QP, United Kingdom 6 Department of Population Ecology, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, A-1030 Wien, Austria 7 Department of Physical Geography & Ecosystems Analysis, University of Lund, Sélvegatan 13, 223 62 Lund, Sweden Biorisk 1 (Special Issue) ISSN 1313-2652 (online), ISSN 1313-2644 (print) dot: 10.3897 /biorisk.1 First published 2008 ISBN 978-954-642-454-9 (paperback) ISBN 978-954-642-455-6 (HB) ISBN 978-954-642-456-3 (e-book) This is an open access book distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Cover and book design: Zheko Akksiev Pensoft Publishers Geo Milev Str. 13a, Sofia 1111, Bulgaria info@pensoft.net www.pensoft.net Printed in Bulgaria, November 2008 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies | 5 CONTENTS Acknowledgements 7 Foreword by Butterfly Conservation Europe 8 Context and objectives of a climatic risk atlas of European butterflies 10 A. CLIMATE CHANGE, BIODIVERSITY, BUTTERFLIES, AND RISK ASSESSMENT A.1 Introduction: Butterflies as indicators 12 A.2 Scenarios and biodiversity 13 A.3 Climate change and Biodiversity Risk Assessment for butterflies 14 B. METHODOLOGY B.1 The MEB project data as basis for the atlas 18 B.2 Scenarios used to assess climate change risks for European Butterflies 18 B.3 Climate niche modelling 20 Climatic factors of butterfly distribution 20 Modelling procedure 21 Assumptions for species dispersal 24 Visualisation of the multi-dimensional climatic niche 24 B.4 Climate change risk assessment for butterflies 24 Definitions of climate change risk categories for European butterflies 24 Integrated overall risk categories for European species — integrating all scenarios and time steps 25 C. CLIMATE RISKS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLY SPECIES C.1 Species inventory and taxonomy of European butterflies 28 C.2 Climatic fate of individual species 31 Hespertidae 32 Papilionidae 104 Pieridae 122 Lycaenidae 186 Riodinidae 340 Libytheidae 342 Nymphalidae 344 Danaidae 618 6 | Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies C.3 Non-modelled European butterfly species 620 C.4 Summary results 629 D. DISCUSSION OF METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS D.1 Limitations of species distribution models and future projections 634 D.2 Interaction of taxonomic status and modelling results 645 E. OUTLOOK: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION E.1 Direct and indirect climate change impacts on butterflies and biodiversity 652 Habitats and trophic interactions 652 Climate envelopes for European butterflies as a starting point for future reseatch and conservation 653 Climate change and evolution 654 Biodiversity Risk Assessment 655 F..2 Butterflies as indicators of environmental change 656 Butterfly indicator developments 656 Butterflies as climate change indicators 657 E..3 Climate change and butterfly conservation 658 FE. APPENDICES, REFERENCES AND INDEX Appendix 1: ‘Table on parameters for model suitability assessment 662 Appendix 2: ‘Table on scenario results: Changes in climatic niches 674 Appendix 3: Risk category statistics 696 References 698 Species index 706 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies | 7 Acknowledgements For the provision of pictures of species (or the readiness to provide them), we are indebted to Bernard Fransen, Eddie John, Heiner Ziegler, Helmut Hottinger, Henk Bosma, Hermann Faas, Jean Delacre, Joe Belicek, Josef Pennerstorfer, Jostein Engdal, Karl Heyde, Matt Rowlings, Michel Tarrier, Neil Thompson, Peter Ginzinger, Philippe Mothiron, Thomas Kissling, and Zdravko Kolev. For diverse discussions of modelling methodology we thank Risto Heikkinen and for provision of basic species texts thanks go to Claire Hengeveld. For help in the scenario chapters we acknowledge Joachim H. Spangenberg and Martin T. Sykes. Zsolt Balint has contributed through the discussion of taxonomic questions. We acknowledge the support of ¢ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ ¢ MEB Mapping European Butterflies Project —in particular the many colleagues who provided distribution data; ¢ European Commission (FP 6) Scientific Support to Policy project MACIS (Minimization of and Adaptation to Climate change impacts on biodiverSity; 044399 (SSPI); Kuhn et al. 2008c); ¢ European Commission (FP 6) Integrated Project ALARM (Assessing LArge scale environmental Risks with tested Methods; GOCE-CT-2003-506675; www.alarmproject.net; Settele et al. 2005); ° Gesellschaft fiir Schmetterlingsschutz (GfS; www.curopean-butterflies.eu); ¢ Butterfly Conservation Europe (BCE; www.bc-europe.cu); ¢ Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres funding the Virtual Institute for Macroecology (VH-VI-153; www.macroecology.org; Kuhn et al. 2008b); ¢ EEA - European Environment Agency (www.eea.cutopa.cu). Special thanks are due to Pensoft Publishers (especially Teodor Georgiev and Lyubomir Penev), who managed to design, layout, proofread and publish this book in less than six weeks time. 8 | Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Foreword by Butterfly Conservation Europe “ Butterfly \ CONSERVATION EUROPE Climate change 1s a new and potent risk to biodiversity. The inevitable rise in global temperatures predicted over the next decades and century 1s a serious threat to butterfly and moth populations and is likely to exacerbate their decline. Butterflies are a well-known and popular group of insects that can play a valuable role as early warning indicators of environmental change. They have short life-cycles and respond rapidly to change. Butterflies and moths have declined rapidly in recent decades and are declining more rapidly than other well-known groups such as plants and birds (which often depend on their caterpillars for food). This Atlas is an early attempt to investigate the possible effects of climate change on butterflies by modelling the impact of various future climate scenarios. The research is based on a unique and comprehensive dataset on butterfly distributions in Europe, derived from the Mapping European Butterflies (MEB) project. We believe that the results are important because butterflies are one of the few groups of insects for which such comprehensive data are available at a European level. As insects comprise over two-thirds of all known species, the results are valuable to help understand the possible impacts of climate change on biodiversity as a whole. The results are alarming. The models suggest that the vast majority of European butterflies will be badly affected by climate change. Most species will have to shift their distributions considerably northwards and will lose a large amount of their suitable climate space. Furthermore, many butterflies live in discrete colonies and have limited powers of dispersal. Such species are restricted by available habitat and may not be able to alter their distribution to keep in step with climate change. The results have important implications for conservation and for EU and national policies and for their funding and implementation. We have the chance to mitigate some of the worst effects of climate change, including those on biodiversity, if we act now. Specifically, we need: ¢ O02 000000000 soceecco0e Cc0cceg oo ee 1SOGS0000080 © @00000 op0c000 .@edecees ‘Geoo000e ©00000000 TITTY Tttty + = S00000e eocccce | C@8@0CCCCC00000 19 G6 © 0000000000066 eeooooqo0oo0o0 6006 S0000000 : de Fig. B.1.1. Geographical coverage and distribution of reference localities aggregated to 50 x 50 km? UTM grid (derived from the database which also was used for Kudrna, 2002). The main source for future climate scenarios was a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (HadCM3; New et al. 2000). The complete ALARM explained in chapter A.2 cover a broad range of potential developments scenarios as in demography, socio-economics and technology during the 21* century. Specifically for climate the following frame conditions apply in addition to the more general aspect mentioned above: 20 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies e SEDG (Sustainable Europe Development Goal) — a storyline for moderate change: The scenario of moderate change approximates the IPCC B1 climate change scenario. Mean expected temperature increase in Europe until 2080 is 2.4°C. e BAMBU (Business As Might Be Usual) —a storyline for intermediate change: The scenario of intermediate change approximates the IPCC A2 climate change scenario. Mean expected increase in temperature 1s 3.1°C. e GRAS (GRowth Applied Strategy) — a storyline for maximum change: The scenario of maximum change approximates the [PCC A1FI climate change scenario. Mean expected increase in temperature is 4.1°C. Based on the storylines, projections of future changes in climate were developed on a 10 x 10 min grid of Europe. Monthly projected climate data (see chapter B.3) were averaged for the two periods 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. B.3 Climate niche modeling Climatic factors of butterfly distribution The climatic requirements of butterflies were modelled using monthly interpolated climate data at the same 50 x 50 km? UTM grid (New et al. 2000, Mitchell et al. 2004) that was used to present the distribution of the species (see chapter B.1). Mean values of the following 22 climate variables (absolute values and annual variations) for the period 1971-2000 were considered for the analysis of climate requirements of the butterflies: e annual temperature (°C); range in annual temperature (°C); quarterly temperature (e.g. March - May = spring; °C); range in quarterly temperature (°C); diurnal temperature range per year (°C); diurnal temperature range per quarter (°C); annual summed precipitation (mm); range in annual precipitation (mm); quarterly summed precipitation (mm); range in quarterly precipitation (mm); annual water deficiency (annual equilibrium evapotranspiration minus annual precipitation; Sykes et al. 1996); range in annual water deficiency; soil water content for both upper and lower horizon retrieved from a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS; Smith et al. 2001, Rickebusch et al. 2008); B. Methodology 21 e annual cloudiness (%); e quarterly cloudiness (%); e accumulated growing degree days with a base temperature of five degrees until February, April, June, and August. Many of these variables are partly redundant in their effects. ‘Thus, to avoid statistical problems due to high levels of collinearity between climate variables we selected ecological relevant and least correlated variables by means of cluster analysis. The threshold for variable selection was a Pearson correlation coefficient lower than 0.3 (Graham 2003). The remaining variables which have been used for the climate niche models of all species within this atlas were e accumulated growing degree days until August, which is highly representative for general temperature gradients across Europe (Fig B.3.1); e soil water content for the upper horizon, which 1s a realistic measure of water availability and near surface microclimate (Fig B.3.2); e ranges in annual precipitation (Fig B.3.3) and e ranges in annual temperature (Fig B.3.4); with the two last ones reflecting continentality and oceantty. Modelling procedure To assess species response to climate change, we first need to identify the ecological niche that each species occupies with respect to key climatic variables. Climatic niche models relating such variables to presence and absence data were developed using generalized linear models (GLM) with a binomial error distribution and a logit link function. We allowed for additive and curvilinear effects by incorporating second order polynomials. Models were checked for spatial autocorrelation with Moran’s I correlograms of model residuals, but none was detected. Initial models were simplified by stepwise regression, while minimizing Akaike’s information criterion (AIC; Sakamoto et al. 1986). Models were calibrated on an 80% random sample of the initial data set and model accuracy was evaluated on the remaining 20%. Agreements between observed presences and absences and projected distributions were evaluated by the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of a Recetver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plot which is independent of thresholds (Fielding & Bell 1997). Thresholds for calculating presence-absence projections were obtained by a maximizing Kappa approach (Manel et al. 2001). While the climatic niche models were developed at the 50 =< 50 km? UTM erid, the future projections were downscaled to 10 < 10 min grid cells. Both wete mapped within the geographical range of -10.417° to 31.917° (longitude) and 34.083° to 71.083° (latitude). All maps based on the WGS1984 coordinate system were projected in the Miller cylindrical projection using ArcGIS software (ESRI 2006). 22 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Accumulated growing degree days until August ss 3. Re Ee sy 1919-2593 | 2504 = d437 Soil water contents for the upper horizon (%) (LPJ-GUESS; Smith et al. 2001; Rickebusch et al. 2008) 75,4 - 40,0 40, = 50,0 S10 - 65,5 65,65 100 Fig. B.3.1 Accumulated grow- ing degree days until August. (a) Current conditions (1971-2000); (b) future conditions for 2050 under the intermediate scenario (BAMBU); (c) future conditions for 2080 under the intermediate scenario (BAMBU). Fig. B.3.2 Soil water content. (a) Current conditions (1971-2000); (b) future conditions for 2050 under the intermediate scenario (BAMBU); (c) future conditions for 2080 under the intermediate scenario (BAMBU). Fig. B.3.3 Range in annual pre- cipitation. (a) Current conditions (1971-2000); (b) future conditions for 2050 under the intermediate scenario (BAMBU); (c) future conditions for 2080 under the in- termediate scenario (BAMBU). Fig. B.3.4 Range in annual tem- perature. (a) Current conditions (1971-2000); (b) future conditions for 2050 under the intermediate scenario (BAMBU); (c) future conditions for 2080 under the in- termediate scenario (BAMBU). B. Methodology Range in annual precipitation (mm) [3 » 44 45 - 67 68.99 10 - 153 | 54 « 285 Range in annual temperature (C°) Ta - 134 13,9 - [70 [7-2 te 2, -24,7 24,8. 29,9 24 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Assumptions for species dispersal The next key factor we need to incorporate is the ability of a species to colonise new potentially suitable areas in the course of climate change. For butterflies, this depends closely on a species’ dispersal ability. However, detailed dispersal distances are not available for most species and we thus examined two extreme assumptions: 1. Unlimited dispersal, such that the entire projected niche space denotes the actual future distribution. 2. No dispersal, in which the future distribution results solely from the overlap between current and future niche space. Visualisation of the multi-dimensional climatic niche To visualise the multi-dimensional climatic niche independent from the species’ geographic distribution, we provide a 4 x 4 panel of graphs. In each graph the occurrence probability surface is presented, according to the climatic niche model and the threshold beyond which occurrence is most likely, considering accumulated erowing degree days until August (Gdd; x-axis) and soil water content (Swe; y-axis). Additionally, for most species the relationship between occurrence probability, Gdd and Swe varies with the other two considered variables annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Since a continuous visualisation of this four-dimensional niche would be outside the scope of human perception, we provide 4 x 4 discrete combinations of the latter two variables. Therefore, we depict the relationship between occurrence probability, Gdd and Swe for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. B.4 Climate change risk assessment for butterflies Definitions of climate change risk categories for European butterflies Each butterfly species assessed was placed in a risk category (see below) according to the loss of grid cells in each scenario. Categories were only assigned for species whose distributions were modelled reasonably accurately by the model (AUC > 0.75, see chapter B.3). Species whose distributions were not modelled reasonable accurately were assigned the category “PR — Potential climate change risk”. B. Methodology 25 The categories of model quality are as follows: AUC: > 0.95: Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables AUC: > 0.85 — 0.95: | Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables AUC: < 0.75: Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent AUC: > 0.75 — 0.85: Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent The climate risk categories which have been derived from the analysis and which are used throughout the atlas are as follows: HHHR extremely high climate change risk 2.75 HHR very high climate change risk S65 95 Sal Os al climate change risk Poi aay = O75 potential climate change risk 0 - 100 < 0.75 high climate change risk ica Sh Integrated overall risk categories for European species — integrating all scenarios and time steps In the short description of the ecology of each species in chapter C.2, each species was given an overall risk category. These are defined as follows: HHHR (extremely high climate change risk): Climate change poses a very high risk to the species because more than 95% of the grids with currently suitable climate may no longer be suitable in 2080 under at least one scenario (under the “no dispersal” assumption). Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables at least to a moderate extent (AUC > 0.75). HER (very high climate change risk): Climate change poses a very high risk to the species because more than 85% of the grids with currently suitable climate may no longer be suitable in 2080 under at least one scenario (under the “no dispersal” assumption). Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables at least to a moderate extent (AUC > 0.75). 26 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies FIR (high climate change risk): Climate change poses a high risk to the species because more than 70% of the grids with currently suitable climate may no longer be suitable in 2080 under at least one scenario (under the “no dispersal” assumption). Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables at least to a moderate extent (AUC > 0.75). R (climate change risk): Climate change poses a risk to the species because more than 50% of the grids with currently suitable climate may no longer be suitable in 2080 under at least one scenario (under the “no dispersal’ assumption). Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables at least to a moderate extent (AUG 0075): LR (lower climate change risk): Climate change poses a lower risk to the species because 50% or less of the grids with currently suitable climate may no longer be suitable in 2080 under at least one scenario (under the “no dispersal” assumption). Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables at least to a moderate extent (AUC > 0.75). PR (potential climate change risk): At the moment, climate change can only be regarded as a potential risk for the species’ long-term survival in Europe. All species whose present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC: S$ 0.75) have been categorised as PR, independent of the rate of decline of their climatic niche distribution. C ee CLIMATE RISKS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLY SPECIES 28 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies C.1 Species inventory and taxonomy of European butterflies Depending on different authors, the state-of-the-art in taxonomy and its interpretation, Europe is thought to support around 450 butterfly species. For this atlas we have modelled 294 species (in some cases only species complexes). The results on individual species are shown in chapter C.2, with complete lists in Appendices 1 and 2. A further 149 species (a number which might change depending on the results of taxonomic research) are listed in chapter C.3. Species covered in C.2 and C.3 only include those from the geographical area of Europe, including the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, all Greek islands, Cyprus and the European part of Turkey, but excluding territories of Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Russia. Generally, the classification of butterfly genera and species in the present work is based on that utilized in “The distribution atlas of European butterflies’ (Kudrna 2002). Recent progress in systematic research (incorporating biological, genetic and molecular aspects, but not ignoring traditional morphology) has led to changes in the classification of many taxa. One always has to be aware, that taxonomic categories are in principle scientific concepts and nominate taxa, here genera and species, are scientific hypotheses. ‘Their authors may employ different views on the status of the same taxon and their views may change as time goes by, subject to the application of new methods and new research results. Therefore the classification of European butterflies is bound to remain fluid — not only if one considers that according to Desctmon & Mallet (in press) around 16% of European butterfly species are known to hybridize in the wild. About half or more of these hybrids are fertile, and show evidence of backcrossing. An example for the need of reclassification on the genus level is the heterogeneity of the genus Pbejus KLUK, 1802, where new molecular data by Wiemers (2003) indicate that it is not monophyletic and possibly consists of a few closely related genera). The first draft of the original checklist used by Kudrna (2002) dates back to 1995; it contained a number of questionable (micro)species in order to facilitate research about their ranges and, perhaps, thetr overlapping zones. This helped, for instance, to establish, that Ewphydryas glaciegenita 1s a high alpine ecological race of E. aurinia, not a distinct species (Pelz, unpubl). The nomenclature utilized here follows the International Code on Zoological Nomenclature. Unfortunately the International Commission on Zoological Nomen- clature does little at present to help stabilize zoological nomenclature by using its plenary powers, the means created in the past for this purpose by the Commission. Thus, for instance, the well established generic name Macuiinea van Ecker, 1915, must be ‘sacrificed’, as it is a junior subjective synonym of Phengaris DOHERTY, 1891 (e.g. Pech et al. 2004). C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species The main changes or adjustments for the present atlas are telegraphically reviewed here, starting with general aspects and followed by a family-wise treatment: General: The authorship of all names proposed in the ‘Wiener Verzeichnis’ was erroncously attributed to DENIS & SCHIFFERMULLER by most of the past authors. It has been demonstrated by Kudrna & Belicek (2005) that the sole author of the work was I. SCHIFFERMULLER. It has been shown that many names proposed therein are nomina nuda, but except in one case they have been made available by subsequent authors. Hesperiidae: Pyrgus malvoides 1s being treated as a distinct species by some and as a subspecies by other authors (e.g. Higgins 1976, de Jong 1972). Following recent recording (Kudrna 2002) and thus for technical reasons, it appears more appropriate to treat both Pyrgus malvae and Pyrgus malvoides under the Pyrgus malvae complex. Pieridae: Following Braby (2005) and contrary to Klots (1933), Ponta Fasricius, 1807, is provisionally recognized as a genus distinct from Pres SCHRANK, 1801. Pontia daplidice was divided into two species by Geiger & Scholl (1982) due to strong differences in allozyme pattern, but Porter et al. (1997) questioned their specific distinctness after proving extensive hybridization in a contact zone in Liguria, Italy. Because of these results and lack of information on the distribution of both taxa in Central Europe, both taxa are treated as a complex in the present atlas. Work on the identity and distribution of both P. edusa and P. daphdice (ncluding molecular work with DNA markers) 1s in progress. It seems that P. edusa 1s more widespread in Central Europe and currently the more active migrant, while P. dapidice is restricted to the Western and Southern Mediterranean region (Wiemers, unpubl. data). Leptidea reah and L. sinapis have proven to be sibling species rather recently, but they cannot be always reliably distinguished and most of old data often cannot be referred to either species. This makes their treatment as L. senapis complex unavoidable. Lycaenidae: Favonius quercus (LINNAEUS, 1758): Shirozu & Yamamoto (1956) have shown in their taxonomic revision that Favonius SIBATANI & ITo, 1942, and Overcusia Verity, 1943, are very closely related, whereas Neozephyrus is morphologically and phylogenetically very distinct. Since Shirozu & Yamamoto (1956) following the ‘fashion’ of their time afforded every species-group the status of a genus, Quercusia 1s best treated as a junior subjective synonym of Favonius. 29 30 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus eroides is a subspecies of P. eros Wiemers unpubl., Vodolazhsky & Stradomsyk 2008a, 2008b). Polyommatus caelestissimus 1s treated as a subspecies of P. cordon, because there ts no evidence for genetic differentiation (Desctmon & Mallet in press, Wiemers 2003), therefore the UI'M data points of both species have been combined into one map. Plebejus glandon and P. aguilo are treated as separate allopatric species in this atlas. However, many authors (e.g. Tolman & Lewington 2008) consider the latter only as a subspecies of P. g/andon, often also including the local endemic P. zuellichi from Sierra Nevada (which has not been modelled due to the few data points). Cyantris semiargus 1s provisionally removed from the genus Po/yommatus LXTREILLE, 1804. New molecular results indicate a closer relationship to Péebejus than to Polyommatus (Wiemets 2003). Some species of the genus Scoftantides HUBNER, 1819, used to be placed in Pseudophilotes Bruret, 1958, which here is regarded as a junior subjective synonym of the former. The use of these genera however keeps changing and underlines the necessity of a revision. Nymphalidae: The genus Nymphals 1s divided into two genera: Aglas DALMAN, 1816, and Nymphalis K.uK, 1802. (Wahlberg & Nylin 2003, Wahlberg pers. comm.). Argyronome YIUBNER, [1819] is a junior subjective synonym of Argynnis Faprictus, 1807 (Stmonsen 2006); thus: Argynnis laodice. Coenonympha iphioides 1s a subspecies of C. ghcerton. (Wiemers 2007). Coenonympha darwiniana 1s a subspecies of C. gardetta (Wiemers 1998, 2007, Potteretals 1995). Although Erebia arvernensis and E. carmenta are probably distinct species (Albre, et al. 2008); at present their distribution data cannot be separated from E. casstoides for technical reasons and thus they have to be treated as a “complex” together with the “western” FE. cassioides. Kudrna (2002) followed Miller (1968) and treated his ‘series’ as monophyletic genera Hipparchia Fasricius, 1807, Maniola SCHRANK, 1801, Pararge TIUBNER [1819] and Kzrinza Moore, 1893. Current research however shows, that Miller’s (1968) ‘series’ ate not monophyletic (Pena et al. 2006). ‘Thus the provisional classification employed here follows Pena et al. (2006); at present there is no comprehensive revision or phylogenetic study of the higher classification of the subfamily Satyrinae. The (provisionally?) resurrected genera ate: Lastommata Westwoon, 1841, Lopinga Moore, 1893, Hyponephele MUSCHAMP, 1915, Pyronta HUBNER [1819], Brintesta FRUHSTORFER, [1911], Chazara Moore, 1893, Pseudochazara Lessr, 1951, Satyrus LATREILLE, 1810, Arethusana LESsE, 1951, Mznors HUBNER, [1819]. Whereas some of these genera (e.g. Hyponephele, Lastommata, Maniola, Pararge) are ‘strong’, some other genera remain ‘weak’ C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species 31 and their taxonomic status may change in the course of new research results becoming available. It is to be remembered that only an incomplete selection of potentially congeneric species has been examined (by molecular and other studies) so fat. e Hipparchia alcyone 1s a junior subjective synonym of H. hermione (VERITY 1913) (Kudrna 1977, 1984, Honey & Scoble 2001), based upon the lectotype of the latter, designated by Kudrna (1977). e Pseudochazara amalthea (FRIwALDszKy, 1845), placed by Kudrna (2002) provisionally in the genus Hzpparchia, is a subspecies of Pseudochazara anthelea (LEFEBVRE, 1831), as it is already treated by many authors. In general we agree with Descimon & Mallet (in press), that “there 1s justification for reviving the rather neglected (and misused) rank of subspecies, with the trend among lepidopterists to consider only mote strongly distinct forms (in morphology, ecology, ot genetics) as subspecies, and to lump dubious geographic forms as synonyms.” ‘This provides “a useful compromise between descriptions of geographic variation, the needs of modern butterfly taxonomy, and Darwin’s pragmatic use of the term species in evolutionary studies.” Although the definition of species will always be difficult, species will continue to function as useful tools in biology. “Studies of gene exchange in the many hierarchical layers of phenotype, genotype and genome in “bad” species of butterflies will illuminate the nature of speciation and evolution at the species level more than discussions on the “essence” of species.” (citations from Descimon & Mallet, in press). C.2 Climatic fate of individual species The present chapter is the core part of this atlas. It encompasses the largest part of the book from page 32 to page 619. Here all species will be shown as pictures taken in natural settings. Their ecology and biology is very briefly characterized, based on general field guides and text books like Tolman & Lewington (2008), but also own field experience. Information on ant-lycaenid relationships were largely drawn from Fiedler (2006). For each species we give the statistics of changes in the climatic niche distribution, the observed and modelled present distribution, the multidimensional climatic niche, and the projected climatic niche space distribution under the different scenarios SEDG, BAMBU, and GRAS for the years 2050 and 2080. On each of these maps the distribution of climatic niche space is shown that a) remains stable (orange), b) gets lost (grey), and c) 1s gained (dark brown). ‘Thus it is possible to optically deduct the changes under the no and the full dispersal assumption (see chapter B.3 on page 20ff for further details on methodology). 32 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erynnis tages (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Dingy Skipper | =o -2873 (-16.22%) | -4268 (-24.1%) SEDG -4695 (-26.51%) | -6615 (-37.35%) BAMBU_ | -5429 (-30.66%) | -8408 (-47.48%) -7225 (-40.8%) | -10729 (-60.59%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 17709 cells) The Dingy Skipper is a small, inconspicuous butterfly. It lays its eggs on the leaves of leguminous plants such as Coronilla varia (Crown Vetch), Horseshoe Vetch (Hippocrepis comosa) and Common Birdsfoot trefoil (Lous corniculatus), usually choosing plants growing near bare patches. The caterpillar spins itself a small, tube-like shelter from leaves of the larval foodplant, living and feeding in it until fully grown. It then builds itself a sturdier shelter 1n which to pass the winter. In the spring, without further feeding, it pupates, either in the shelter, or in the moss layer. The adult butterfly is often found on Bugle (4juga spp.) and, while visiting flowers, is easily observed. The Dingy Skipper has one brood a year in central and northern Europe and two in the southern part. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Erynnis tages (Hesperiidae) 33 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 34 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erynnis marloyi (BotspDuvaL, 1834) — Inky Skipper Cc Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -123 (-13.61%) | -521 (-57.63%) BAMBU_ | -240 (-26.55%) | -583 (-64.49%) 22 (2n5wr) | 0 (59 SEDG -72 (-7.96%) -578 (-63.94%) BAMBU | -572 (-63.27%) | -807 (-89.27%) a8 cram) | wa 835% © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 904 cells) Inky Skippers are very dark little butterflies that fly rapidly, close to the ground. They are found on dry grasslands, in dried-up riverbeds, on rocky slopes, and in woodland clearings. They can often be seen basking in the sun, wings widespread, on light-coloured stones. Especially the females can also often be seen drinking nectar on thyme. The larvae feed on bushy rosaceans particularly on Prunus spinosa and P. cocomilla. Vhe Inky Skipper has one or two broods a year. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o toad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 35 Erynnis marloyi Hesperiidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) nanva (ld) SVH9 2080 2050 36 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Carcharodus alceae (EsPEr, 1870) — Mallow Skipper a ee 2554 (20.32%) | -1255 (-9.98%) SEDG 1889 (15.03%) | -2106 (-16.75%) BAMBU -222 (1.77%) -4815 (-38.3%) -1188 (-9.45%) | -6139 (-48.83%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12571 cells) The Mallow Skipper is a butterfly of warm, grassy places, usually with rough vegetation. It is a mobile butterfly, that strays outside its usual habitat, and thus can be met in unexpected places. In warm summers, they migrate northwards and can be seen in warm, south-facing river valleys. The resident populations are usually small. The butterflies are often seen visiting flowers for nectar. They also spend a lot of their time basking in the sun, their wings widespread, showing to full advantage their beautiful purple to oltve-green metallic sheen. Eggs are laid singly on the upperside of the leaves of mallows (Madu ssp.). The caterpillars thrive on this food, growing very quickly. This skipper has up to three or more broods per year. As winter approaches, the fully-grown caterpillars make a cocoon in the litter layer. They pupate in the spring. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.71). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 ct a a =) a = 7 Pm On ef@eEs o= mH =e £5 8 Oo. 4 ow 7 © Aad cL 4 = a ger YH e- : qf. = 2 o wv x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 37 Carcharodus alceae (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 38 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Carcharodus lavatherae (Esper, 1783) — Marbled Skipper 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -21 (-0.64%) -1482 (-45.43%) BAMBU -132 (-4.05%) | -1578 (-48.38%) -379 (-11.62%) | -1893 (-58.03%) SEDG 1101 (33.75%) | -1978 (-60.64%) BAMBU 284 (8.71%) -2409 (-73.85%) -454 (-13.92%) | -2792 (-85.59%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3262 cells) The green sheen on the upperside of the wings and body of the Marbled Skipper distinguish it from other skippers in this genus. It lives 1n warm, flower-rich places. Populations are usually small, and it is exceptional to see a large number of these butterflies gathered together. On very hot days, needing to drink, they look for damp ground. The eggs are laid singly on the sepals of various woundworts (Stachys spp.), especially Perennial Yellow Woundwort (S. rec/a). The young caterpillars spin a loose shelter from leaves, under which they hide themselves while they feed, first eating the seeds and, later, the leaves of the plant. They hibernate in the third or fourth instar and pupate at the foot of the foodplant. The Marbled Skipper 1s single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.73). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) ah o = ze o ™ o oF 4000 0 ee 4000 0 oy 4000 0 ee 4000 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 39 Carcharodus lavatherae (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 40 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Carcharodus flocciferus (ZELLER, 1847) — Tufted Marbled Skipper a 104 (2.47%) -1661 (-39.43%) SEDG 2641 (62.69%) | -1670 (-39.64%) BAMBU 2427 (57.61%) | -2346 (-55.68%) 2972 (70.54%) | -2925 (-69.43%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4213 cells) The Tufted Marbled Skipper can be found on flower-rich grasslands. It also occurs at the edges of woodland and in bushy vegetation. The males usually perch on a tall plant and very actively defend their territory. The female lays her eggs singly on the leaves of various woundworts (S/achys spp.), Betony (5. officinahs), but also Hedge Woundwort (S. syfatica), Alpine Woundwort (5. a/pina), and Marsh Woundwort (5. palustris). Species of horehounds (Marrubium spp.) ate also considered to be larval foodplants. The young caterpillar lives in a curled-up leaf. When it is bigger, it spins two neighbouring leaves together to make a shelter where 1t remains during the day, coming out at night to feed on the leaves of the foodplant. It also pupates in such a shelter. This butterfly has one or two broods a year. It overwinters either as a caterpillar or a pupa. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.79). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Carcharodus flociferus (Hesperiidae) 41 42 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Carcharodus orientalis (REVERDIN, 1913) — Oriental Marbled Skipper .—hClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -26 (-2.11%) -611 (-49.59%) BAMBU -119 (-9.66%) -594 (-48.21%) -94 (-7.63%) -695 (-56.41%) SEDG 255 (20.7%) -729 (-59.17%) BAMBU -435 (-35.31%) -972 (-78.9%) 206 cso) | 1116 605806 © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1232 cells) The Ortental Marbled Skipper is mostly found on grasslands, on rocky slopes with grassy vegetation, and occasionally on bushy or on low, shrubby vegetation. The butterflies fly quickly, close to the ground. When they are at rest, they usually have their wings widely spread. Males can be commonly found drinking on dump ground. The caterpillars feed on woundworts (Siachys spp.). It has two to three generations a year, and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Carcharodus orientalis (Hespertidae) 43 44 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Carcharodus baeticus (RamBuR, 1840) — Southern Marbled Skipper 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 88 (21.26%) -239 (-57.73%) 168 (40.58%) -229 (-55.31%) 138 (33.33%) -288 (-69.57%) 248 (59.9%) -293 (-70.77%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 414 cells) The Southern Marbled skipper occurs on dry, sparse vegetation, as found in the dunes, in dry, erassy places, and on rocky slopes. Foodplants are various horehounds, including Horehound (Marrubium vulgare), Black Horehound (Ballota migra ssp. foetida), and Ballota spp. The female lays her eggs one by one on the leaves and shoots of the foodplant, seeming to prefer smaller plants. The small caterpillars live hidden in a spun leaf. The older, larger caterpillars spin two neighbouring leaves together to make a safe shelter. When they are fully-grown, the caterpillars go down to the foot of the foodplant, and spin a few dried leaves together in which to pupate. The species was not seen in the Alps in last 40 years, where it probably had just one generation per year, while in Spain there are two or three generations a year. It hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 45 Carcharodus baeticus (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 46 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Spialia phlomidis (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1845) — Persian Skipper .—hCcLe Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG -59 (-15.4%) -195 (-50.91%) -88 (-22.98%) -228 (-59.53%) |GRAS | -110 (-28.72%) | -260 (67.89%) SEDG 27 (7.05%) -229 (-59.79%) BAMBU_ | -262 (-68.41%) | -352 (-91.91%) -319 (-83.29%) | -381 (-99.48%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 383 cells) The Persian Skipper occurs on dry grasslands, on dry scrub, in rocky places and at woodland edges. On hot days males and females congregate on dump ground where they are easy to spot. Although the larval foodplant is not known for certain, probably various bindweeds (Conohulus spp.) are used. Also, 1t 1s not clear how many broods it has a year, but 1t is probably two. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.93). Climate risk category: HHHR Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - edd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Gad 4000 0 ada 4000 0.6 Minimum Swe 02 Swe 1.0 O.2 0.6 1.0 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Spiala phlomidis (Hespertidae) 47 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 48 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Spialia sertorius (HOFFMANSEGG, 1804) — Red-underwing Skipper ee -426 (-6.29%) -1771 (-26.17%) < -331 (-4.89%) -1755 (-25.93%) ! gy) ee SEDG 553 (8.17%) | -2424 (35.82%) aomicch te yt BAMBU_ | -1006 (-14.86%) | -3188 (-47.1%) ae GRAS -2218 (-32.77%) | -4639 (68.54%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6768 cells) The Red-underwing Skipper is a small butterfly that likes warm habitats. It occurs on calcareous and other dry grasslands, and also in dry, rough vegetation, as long as its larval foodplant, Salad Burnet (Sanguisorba minor), 1s present. The eggs are laid between the buds on the flowerheads of this plant and the caterpillars feed on the young leaves. Hibernation takes place as a caterpillar, in warm areas when still small, and further north when fully grown. The caterpillars pupate in the litter layer, in a sturdy cocoon made from plant remains. Because of its rapid flight and unremarkable behaviour, this small butterfly 1s often not even noticed. However, they are often present in large numbers over quite a small area. The butterflies like visiting flowers. It has one or two broods a year, depending on the position of the breeding ground within the range. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77) Climate risk category: R Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘0.6 he a a =) a es 7 Om Oe cfes o= mH =f £5 8 Oo. 4 os 7 oo a ee ge ger te | e- : qf. = 2 o wv x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 4000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 49 Spiaha sertorius (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 50 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Spialia orbifer (HUBNER, 1823) - Orbed Red-underwing Skipper SEDG 2229 (81.71%) -341 (-12.5%) BAMBU 528 (19.35%) -987 (-36.18%) 1211 (44.39%) | -976 (-35.78%) SEDG 1025 (37.57%) | -1188 (-43.55%) & | BAMBU -59 (-2.16%) -1848 (-67.74%) 1443 (52.9%) | -2000 (-73.31%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2728 cells) The Orbed Red-underwing Skipper occurs on dry, flower-rich grasslands, on roadside verges, at the edges of woods, on abandoned agricultural land, rocky slopes, and along dried-up river beds. The butterflies have a rapid flight, close to the ground. The eggs are laid on the flowerheads of Salad Burnet (Sanguisorba minor), and, in Eastern Europe, possibly also on Great Burnet (S. officenals). The round flowerheads of the foodplant are the caterpillars’ first food, but as they grow larger, they hide themselves between spun leaves. Hibernation takes place on the ground, in the litter layer. They also pupate in rolled-up leaves of the foodplant. This skipper is double-brooded and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Ow a] wy ™ a 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gadd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 51 Spiala orbifer (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 52 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Syrichtus proto (OCHSENHEIMER, 1808) — Sage Skipper .—CcLe Full dispersal No dispersal | SEDG -1328 (-36.22%) | -1802 (-49.15%) AMBU | -1862 (-50.79%) | -2012 (-54.88%) a -1928 (-52.59%) -2248 (-61.32%) SEDG -1929 (-52.62%) -2530 (-69.01%) -3014 (-82.21%) -3242 (-88.43%) -2945 (-80.33%) | -3553 (-96.92%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3666 cells) The Sage Skipper occurs on dry, flower-rich grassland, in open scrub, on rocky ground with sparse vegetation. However, in its chosen habitat, the larval foodplants are usually abundant. Various species of Phlomis are used, such as Jerusalem Sage (P. fructicosa), P. hchnitis, P. herba-vent, and perhaps also Horehound (Marrubium spp.). Although there is probably only one generation a year, the butterflies of the Sage Skipper can be seen from spring until autumn, due to prolonged emergence from the pupa. This skipper passes the winter as a caterpillar inside the egg. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 53 Syrichtus proto (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 54 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Syrichtus tessellum (HUBNER, 1803) — Tessellated Skipper 6c Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 305 (28.8%) -806 (-76.11%) 3 S -303 (-28.61%) | -938 (-88.57%) eae -736 (-69.5%) -1059 (-100%) -755 (-71.29%) | -1058 (-99.91%) a -736 (-69.5%) -1059 (-100%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1059 cells) The Tessellated Skipper occurs in open grassy and flower rich places where it feeds preferably on thymes, vetches and yarrows. The butterflies have a rapid flight, often quite close to the ground. The caterpillars feed on the labiates Phlomis tuberosa and P. samia, hiding in spun leaves. The Tessellated Skipper has one or two generations a year, and passes the winter as a small caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o Ey o E zs = tl = 6 o x Ow =o wo tH ro] 2 : . : E ; ; o = w ead 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 55 Syrichtus tessellum (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 56 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus carthami (HUBNER, 1813) — Safflower Skipper .—hCcLUwkE Full dispersal No dispersal al SEDG 222 (3.38%) 1952 (-29.74%) -770 (-11.73%) | -2415 (-36.8%) -1787 (-27.23%) | -4285 (-65.29%) -3285 (-50.05%) | -5563 (-84.76%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6563 cells) The Safflower Skipper is the largest grizzled skipper in Central Europe. It prefers sheltered places, occurring on dry, often calcareous grasslands, and on rough vegetation in places sheltered from the wind. They often rest near bushes or at the edges of woods. They lay their eggs singly on the upperside of the leaves of cinquefoils (Potentilla spp.), the caterpillar later using leaves as food. However, the caterpillars are difficult to find, because they hide away in plant cushions during the day, 1n order to survive the summer heat. The caterpillars hibernate in spun leaves in the litter layer, probably in the last larval instar. However, in breeding experiments, each stage was found to be capable of hibernating. Before they pupate, the caterpillars make a sturdy cocoon. The Safflower Skipper is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 57 Pyrgus carthami (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 58 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus sidae (Esrrr, 1782) — Yellow-banded Skipper AMBU -808 (-60.16%) | -1286 (-95.76%) -384 (-28.59%) | -1328 (-98.88%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1343 cells) The yellow and white bands on the underside of its hindwing make the Yellow-banded Skipper unmistakable. These skippers can be found on flower-rich grasslands, flower-rich stony slopes in gullies, and in open scrub. The butterflies fly slowly, close to the ground. Sulphur Cinquefoil (Potentilla recta), Potentilla lirta, and perhaps also Abutilon theophrast ate used as larval foodplants. It hibernates as a caterpillar and has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Ow =o ie] is} oO = : : : : F ? : ah o = wv o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 59 Pyrgus sidae (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 60 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus andromedae (WALLENGREN, 1853) — Alpine Grizzled Skipper a 511 (-26.46%) | -546 (-28.28%) SEDG -425 (-22.01%) | -586 (-30.35%) BAMBU -306 (-15.85%) | -542 (-28.07%) -584 (-30.24%) | -777 (-40.24%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1931 cells) The Alpine Grizzled Skipper occurs in damp, moist, grassy places, often near streams or bogs in the Alps and Pyrenees. In Scandinavia, they are seen on dwarf scrub vegetation and also in rocky places on steep slopes. The only reported foodplant 1s Dryas octopetala. The caterpillars live in a communal shelter of spun leaves. They hibernate, pupating in a similar shelter the following spring. The species’ development takes two years. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.87). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 61 Pyrgus andromedae (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 62 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus cacaliae (RAMBUR, 1840) — Dusky Grizzled Skipper .—hlcL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -272 (-23.59%) -368 (-31.92%) BAMBU -207 (-17.95%) | -320 (27.75%) -312 (-27.06%) | -400 (-34.69%) SEDG 514 (-44.58%) | -630 (54.64%) BAMBU -336 (-29.14%) | -538 (-46.66%) 523 (-45.36%) | -719 (-62.36%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1153 cells) Damp grassland, at the edge of bogs or streams, is the habitat of the Dusky Grizzled Skipper, although they sometimes occur on dry grasslands. The male show marked territorial behaviour. The female lays her eggs on various species of cinquefoil (Polenii/la spp.), such as Tormentil (P. erecta), and Alpine Cinquefoul (P. crantzi2), and also on Szbbaldia species. She prefers plants growing on drier places, such as on hummocks in damp habitats, or at a little distance from its habitat. The caterpillars live hidden between spun leaves, and it is 1n this stage that the Dusky Grizzled Skipper hibernates. The development takes two years. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o toad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pyrgus cacaliae (Hesperiidae) 63 64 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus centaureae (RAMBUR, 1840) — Northern Grizzled Skipper a -1565 (-27.17%) | -1588 (-27.57%) SEDG -1836 (-31.87%) | -2073 (-35.99%) BAMBU | -2932 (-50.9%) | -3022 (-52.47%) GRAS -3722 (-64.62%) | -3811 (-66.16%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5760 cells) The Northern Grizzled Skipper prefers damp, moist and wet places. It is mostly found in open areas of bogs or swamps, in scrub near swamps, and above the tree-line on stretches of wet ground with dwarf shrubs. With its inconspicuous colours and rapid flight, the butterflies of this grizzled skipper are difficult to follow. The female lays her eggs on Cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus). Lattle is known about the way the caterpillars live. This species is single-brooded. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 ad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 65 Pyrgus centaureae (Hesperiidae) *l 1 oe - | ul “wf att % aby Ls 2080 2050 66 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus malvae (LINNAEUS, 1758) / malvoides (ELWeEs & EpDwarps, 1897) (complex) — Grizzled Skipper a SEDG -5554 (-27.17%) | -10058 (-49.21%) BAMBU_ | -4212 (-20.61%) | -7735 (-37.84%) -2288 (-11.19%) | -5349 (-26.17%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20440 cells) Due to data availability we here treat both Pyrgus malhae (LINNAEUS, 1758) and P. malhoides (ELWES & Epwarps, 1897) as the Grizzled Skipper species complex, knowing that Pyreus mahoides is mostly recognised as a distinct species. The Grizzled Skipper occurs in many different habitats, mostly on dry, as well as moist, flower-rich grasslands, and also on calcareous grasslands and heaths. The eggs are laid on the underside of the leaves of cinquefoils (Pofentilla spp.) and strawberries (Fvagaria spp). The caterpillar builds a small shelter from a leaf, in which it stays hidden, feeding on the leaves of the foodplant. The sturdy cocoon in which it pupates is spun from plant remains. This species has one to two broods. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.71). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 67 Pyrgus mahae | malvoides (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 68 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus serratulae (RAMBUR, 1840) — Olive Skipper .6—ClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 52 (0.84%) -1871 (-30.1%) -450 (-7.24%) | -2061 (-33.16%) -1483 (-23.86%) | -3798 (-61.11%) -3008 (-48.4%) | -4947 (-79.6%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6215 cells) The Olive Skipper occurs in areas that do not become too hot in the summer, on poor to rough, flower-rich grasslands, which are either open or surrounded by woodland. The butterfly of the Olive Skipper is quite mobile, and may be seen in unexpected places. The eggs are deposited on the underside of the leaves of cinquefoils (Ponta spp.), and master-worts (Astrantia spp.). The caterpillar lives in a small shelter, spun from a rolled-up leaf, feeding on the leaves of the foodplant. It passes the winter in a cocoon, and pupates the following spring at the base of the foodplant. This skipper is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 69 Pyrgus serratulae (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 70 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus onopordi (RamBur, 1840) — Rosy Grizzled Skipper CL Full dispersal No dispersal | SEDG 279 (-12.86%) | -1032 (-47.58%) } | BAMBU -306 (-14.11%) -1069 (-49.29%) GRAS -449 (-20.7%) | -1312 (-60.49%) SEDG 88 (4.06%) -1395 (-64.32%) BAMBU -98 (-4.52%) -1602 (-73.86%) GRAS -373 (-17.2%) -2079 (-95.85%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2169 cells) The Rosy Grizzled Skipper has a characteristic anvil-shaped spot on the underside of its hindwing. These butterflies can be seen on different types of grassy vegetation and on rocky slopes. Different foodplants are used in different parts of its range. In Switzerland the eggs are laid on rockroses (Hehanthemum spp.) and cinquefoils (Potentilla spp.), in Spain, mallows (Maha spp.) ate used. In most places, the Rosy Grizzled Skipper has two broods a year and in some places three. It hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o 7 | | ‘add 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 71 Pyrgus onopordi (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 72 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus carlinae (RaMBvrR, 1840) — Carline Skipper SEDG -100 (-12.22%) -481 (58.8%) BAMBU 22, (2.69%) -419 (51.22%) -133 (-16.26%) | -506 (-61.86%) SEDG -231 (-28.24%) | -714 (87.29%) BAMBU_ | -197 (-24.08%) | -614 (-75.06%) GRAS -362 (-44.25%) | -703 (85.94%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 818 cells) The Carline Skipper prefers dry, south-facing slopes with quite short vegetation. However, they can also be seen on damp grasslands, and in very open larch woods. Large numbers can sometimes occut locally. The female lays her eggs singly on the underside of the leaves of various cinquefotls (Potentilla spp.). The caterpillar remains in the egg during the winter, emerging in the spring. It then spins a shelter by attaching a leaf of the foodplant to the ground, 1n which it lives, hidden. It pupates close to the ground, and has one generation a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 73 Pyrgus carlinae (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 74 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus cirsit (RAMBUR, 1840) [ie] _ 7 Full dispersal No dispersal -472, (-10.85%) | -1306 (-30.01%) 524 (-12.04%) | -1326 (-30.47%) 3 | BAMBU -1107 (-25.44%) | -1933 (-44.42%) | | SEDG -94T (-21.76%) | -1936 (-44.49%) BAMBU_ | -1773 (-40.74%) | -2764 (-63.51%) -3080 (-70.77%) | -3713 (-85.32%) —— © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4352 cells) This grizzled skipper occurs on warm, flower-rich grasslands, preferring those in sheltered situations, for example, on slopes, or near shrubs or woodland. In the northern part of its range, it is only found in very warm places. The female lays her eges singly on the underside of the leaves of vatious cinquefoils (Pofentilla spp.), choosing the smaller plants. This butterfly hibernates as a very tiny caterpillar in the egg, in which it remains until the spring. It then emerges and spins itself a small shelter from leaves. In the last larval instar, this is replaced by a parchment-like shelter. It pupates in a cocoon. It is single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 tt =) 2 os ss = = Pas o= mH :- 7 on £5 8 Oo 4 os 7 a oo a 4 ge ger ™ ee qf. = 3 nid ite = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 75 Pyrgus cirsit (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 76 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus armoricanus (OBERTHUR, 1910) — Oberthiir’s Grizzled Skipper .6—hlcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 1076 (16.16%) -2050 (-30.79%) 362 (5.44%) -2404 (-36.11%) -402 (-6.04%) | -5276 (-79.24%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6658 cells) Oberthtir’s Grizzled Skipper 1s generally limited to unimproved grasslands. In the north of its range, the populations are small, but large numbers of butterflies make up the southern populations. The butterflies can often be seen visiting flowers and seem to be especially fond of Globulana. The female lays her eggs singly on the underside of the leaves of cinquefoils (Potenii/ia spp.) and rockroses (Hehanthemum spp.). The caterpillars of the first instar only eat the surface layer, leaving translucent “windows” in the leaf. The larger caterpillars eat the whole leaf, and live in a tent-like shelter, spun from one or more leaves. It is the caterpillar that hibernates. It pupates in a cocoon on the ground and there are two to three generations a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - ion o ch o dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 77 Pyrgus armoricanus (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 78 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus alveus (HUBNER, 1803) (complex) — Large Grizzled Skipper .6—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -102 (-0.93%) -2549 (-23.36%) BAMBU 580 (5.32%) -2013 (-18.45%) -1796 (-16.46%) | -3665 (-33.59%) SEDG 2539 (23.27%) | -3680 (-33.72%) BAMBU 1087 (9.96%) } -4815 (-44.13%) 246 (2.25%) -6117 (-56.06%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 10912 cells) Due to data availability and resolution we include P. frebevivensis, P. accretus and P. aleus 1n this complex, while we are aware that these taxa are often treated separately. The Large Grizzled Skipper is usually found in mountainous areas on dry, poor, flower-rich grassland, and rough vegetation. Quick-flying and alert, it also likes basking on the ground and drinking from wet mud. It is a very variable butterfly with many different subspecies and forms, making identification difficult. Choosing the smaller leaves, the female lays her eggs singly on various rock-roses (Hehanthemum spp.). At first, the caterpillar lives between spun leaves on plants, later on it spins a tent-like shelter on the ground. It passes the winter in this stage and builds a spectal tube-like structure in which to pupate. There are one or two generations a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.73). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh a a = Ow Za 09 ie Oo eS : : : ; F 7 : dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 79 Pyrgus alveus (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 80 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus belliert (OBERTHUR, 1910) — Foulquier’s Grizzled Skipper CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -180 (-44.33%) -356 (-87.68%) BAMBU_ | -172 (-42.36%) | -338 (-83.25%) -109 (-26.85%) | -369 (-90.89%) SEDG 242 (59.61%) -395 (-97.29%) BAMBU -60 (-14.78%) -404 (-99.51%) -113 (-27.83%) -406 (-100%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 406 cells) This grizzled skipper likes flower-rich, grassy vegetation. It occurs on sub-alpine and alpine grasslands as well as on damp, sometimes rough, grassy vegetation. Various cinquefoils (Potentilla spp.) are used as foodplant, including Tormentil (P. erecta), Silverweed (P. anserina), Spring Cinquefoil (P. tabernaemontam), and Creeping Cinquefoil (P. repfans). This butterfly hibernates in the larval stage and has one generation a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 add 4000 0 od 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Pyrgus belieri (Hesperiidae) SEDG (B1) BAMBU GRAS 2080 (A2) (A1Fl) 81 82 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyrgus warrenensis (VERITY, 1928) — Warren’s Skipper Cc Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -447 (-31.81%) -568 (-40.43%) BAMBU -437 (-31.1%) -541 (-38.51%) 537 (-38.22%) | -644 (-45.84%) SEDG -725 (-51.6%) -954 (-67.9%) BAMBU -655 (-46.62%) | -834 (-59.36%) -796 (-56.65%) | -997 (-70.96%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1405 cells Warren’s Skipper occurs mostly on flower-rich alpine grasslands. The males fly where flowers are most abundant, along mountain streams, for example. From a perch on a bush or tall plant, they also defend their territory. The females meanwhile are often found on warm, dry patches near bushes, where they lay their eggs one by one on the rockrose Hehanthemum alpestre, preferring the smaller plants. The small caterpillar lives hidden in a spun leaf, while caterpillars of later stages spin two leaves together, and finally, make a larger shelter from several leaves. ‘The Warren’s Skipper is single- brooded and passes the winter as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o 7 |]. dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pyrgus warrenensis (Hesperiidae) 83 84 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Heteropterus morpheus (PAuas, 1771) — Large Chequered Skipper aa ee 4028 (53.29%) | -541 (-38.51%) SEDG 1760 (23.28%) -954 (-67.9%) BAMBU 2305 (30.49%) | -834 (59.36%) 819 (10.83%) -997 (-70.96%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 7559 cells) The conspicuous pattern on the underside of the wings of the Large Chequered Skipper is unlike that of any other European butterfly. Furthermore, it has a characteristic, bouncing flight, low over the vegetation. It occurs in damp, rough, grassy places, such as grasslands, road verges, edges of streams, at the edges of raised bogs, and in woodland clearings. The eggs are laid singly or in small batches on the blades of grasses, such as Purple Moor-grass (Modnea caeruka) or Purple Smallreed (Calamagrostis canescens). The caterpillar makes a tubular shelter from grass, at first using a folded blade, and later using spun grass-blades. It leaves its shelter in search of food. The caterpillars pass the winter in the shelter. Pupation takes place in spring. The Large Chequered Skipper has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum tea 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Heteropterus morpheus (Hesperiidae) SEDG GRAS (B1) (A1Fl) 85 86 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Carterocephalus palaemon (PALLAs, 1771) — Chequered Skipper .6—hlcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -1722 (-15.33%) | -3397 (-30.24%) -1877 (-16.71%) | -3570 (-31.78%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 11232 cells) The Chequered Skipper usually occurs on damp grassland at woodland margins, or where there is woodland nearby, including road verges, also on the drier areas of raised bogs and at their edges. Breeding grounds are also known 1n somewhat drier locations at higher altitudinal levels. Populations are usually small. The female lays her eggs one by one on the blades of coarse-leaved grasses. The caterpillars spin folded grass leaves together into a little tube, in which they spend most of ther life, leaving it only to feed. Those who know what to look for, can find their traces, small half-moons nibbled away from the edge of the grass-blade. The caterpillars hibernate in a more substantial tube-like shelter. It pupates, its papery, pale-yellow pupa b suspended from withered grass by a silken girdle. The Chequered Skipper is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.79). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 Gad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 Swe 0.6 1.0 O2 1.0 6 O.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 87 Carterocephalus palaemon (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 88 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Carterocephalus silvicolus (MEIGEN, 1829) — Northern Chequered Skipper 6c Full dispersal No dispersal f SEDG -1008 (-18.35%) | -2364 (-43.04%) -1928 (-35.1%) | -3609 (-65.7%) © Otakar Kudrna Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5493 cells) The Northern Chequered Skipper can be found flying on the damp, flower-rich grass of woodland rides. They can often be seen drinking nectar from various speedwells (Veronica spp.). The eggs are laid on various coarse-leaved grasses. The caterpillar lives in a shelter spun from a blade of grass. In the last larval instar, the caterpillar makes a shelter from withered leaves in which it hibernates. The pale-yellow pupa is suspended in a silken girdle in the vegetation. It pupates in the spring. The Northern Chequered Skipper is single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.93). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 89 Carterocephalus silvicolus (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 90 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Thymelicus lineola (OCHSENHEIMER, 1806) — Essex Skipper a -2839 (-14.61%) | -4045 (-20.82%) SEDG -3425 (-17.63%) -5330 (-27.43%) BAMBU_ | -5580 (-28.72%) | -7891 (-40.61%) -7605 (-39.14%) | -10551 (-54.3%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 19431 cells) The Essex Skipper occurs in many sorts of flower-rich places with tall grass, such as grasslands, road verges and on banks of streams. Because these butterflies need quite a lot of nectar, they can often be seen drinking on thistles, knapweeds and other purple or pink flowers rich in nectar. The female deposits her eggs in groups in the leaf-sheaths of coarse grasses, and lays them when the foodplants are already withered. It is the eggs that hibernate. The development of the caterpillar takes place the following spring. At first, the caterpillar only feeds during the day, but later also at night. They pupate in the vegetation. The pupa may be suspended from a grass blade by a silken girdle, but also just by the tip. The Essex Skipper is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 fad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 0.2 Swe 06 o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 91 Thymelicus lineola Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 92 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Thymelicus sylvestris (Popa, 1761) — Small Skipper a -2283 (-18.52%) | -4097 (-33.23%) SEDG -3060 (-24.82%) | -4995 (-40.51%) BAMBU_ | _ -4395 (-35.65%) | -6533 (-52.99%) -5406 (-43.85%) | -8045 (-65.25%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12329 cells) The Small Skipper occurs in all sorts of flower-rich places with tall grass, such as grasslands, road verges and edges of streams. The butterflies are fond of visiting thistles, knapweeds and other purple or pink flowers for their nectar. The female deposits her eggs in batches of three to twenty in the leaf-sheaths of coarse-leaved grasses. Unlike the Essex Skipper, she only uses young, green leaves. After about three weeks, the eggs hatch and the small caterpillars begin spinning a shelter straightaway 1n which to hibernate. Only the next spring do they begin to feed and grow. At first, they only feed during the day and later also at night. They pupate in a web of loosely spun white threads. The Small Skipper is single-brooded, but the butterflies emerge over a long period. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 93 Thymelicus sylvestris (Hespertidae) 2080 2050 94 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Thymelicus acteon (ROTTEMBURGER, 1775) — Lulworth Skipper .—ClcLUwA Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 222 (2.27%) -1744 (-17.79%) BAMBU -456 (-4.65%) | -2089 (-21.31%) -445 (-4.54%) | -2359 (-24.07%) SEDG -827 (-8.44%) | -2875 (-29.33%) BAMBU_ | -2148 (-21.92%) | -4352 (-44.4%) -2860 (-29.18%) | -5473 (55.84%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9801 cells) The Lulworth Skipper can be found on warm, dry grassland, with bushes or scrub nearby, or at the edge of woodland. In the north of its range, it is mostly found on calcareous grassland. Eggs are laid on the withered leaves of many grasses. Directly after hatching, the small caterpillar spins itself a cocoon in which to hibernate. It does not begin to eat and grow until the following spring. It then builds itself a shelter by spinning blades of grass together, which it only leaves when looking for food. When fully grown, it pupates, changing into a green pupa suspended in the vegetation by a silken girdle. The Lulworth Skipper is mostly single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a todd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 95 Thymelicus acteon (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 96 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hesperia comma (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Silvet-spotted Skipper eae -2321 (-19.66%) | -3408 (-28.87%) SEDG -4598 (-38.95%) | -6026 (-51.04%) BAMBU 5466 (-46.3%) | -7294 (-61.78%) -7069 (-59.88%) | -9066 (-76.79%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 11806 cells) The Silver-spotted Skipper occurs on open, poor grasslands, heathlands, and on sparsely covered blown sand. The habitat varies from dry to moist, but is never rich in nutrients. However, in their search for nectar, the skippers do visit nutrient-rich areas where flowers are growing, usually not so far from their breeding ground. Eggs are laid on various fine-leaved grasses, passing the winter in this stage. In the spring, the caterpillars emerge and spin a shelter from blades of grass in which they spend most of their time, usually coming out to feed at night. When fully-grown, the caterpillar spins a cocoon of silk and grass blades near the ground in which it pupates. The Silver-spotted Skipper has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe E 1.0 0.2 0.6 fi. 1.0 1} —}— | Swe o2 t=] 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 97 Hesperia comma (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 98 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Ochlodes sylvanus (EsPER, 1777) — Large Skipper hc Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -726 (-3.53%) -3276 (-15.94%) BAMBU -953 (-4.64%) -3309 (-16.1%) -1398 (-6.8%) | -4058 (-19.74%) SEDG -750 (-3.65%) | -4881 (-23.75%) BAMBU_ | -2082 (-10.13%) | -6893 (-33.54%) -3892 (-18.94%) | -9349 (-45.49%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20554 cells) The Large Skipper is found on sunny, grassy vegetation in or near woods and scrub. It often visits flowers, and the development of some rough vegetation close to the breeding ground is thus favourable. They are especially fond of bramble blossom for nectar. The female deposits her eggs onto the blades of coarse-leaved grasses one by one. The caterpillars make a shelter by spinning blades of grass together, and pass the winter in the third larval instar. When fully grown, they also spin leaves and silk together, to form a tube-like shelter in which to pupate. The Large Skipper is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 10 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 06 10 0.2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 06 o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 99 Ochlodes sylvanus (Hesperiidae) 2080 2050 100 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Gegenes pumilio (HOFFMANSEGG, 1804) — Pigmy Skipper [eaten [ neato -15 (-2.86%) -201 (-38.29%) SEDG 90 (17.14%) -220 (-41.9%) BAMBU | -123 (-23.43%) | -342 (-65.14%) -223 (-42.48%) -420 (-80%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 525 cells) The Pigmy Skipper occurs in the same types of habitat as the Mediterranean Skipper (Gegenes nostrodamus). Dry gullies, rocky slopes, sandy or stony riverbanks with sparse vegetation, dry grassland and low scrub near the coast are all places where these butterflies can be seen, often basking 1n the sun on stones and bare soil. In spring, there are fewer butterflies than in the summer and autumn. The larvae feed on the grasses Hyparrhenia hirta and Sorghum halepensis. Vhe Pigmy Skipper has two to three generations a year. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 101 Gegenes pumilio (Hesperiidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) nNanva 2080 2050 102 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Gegenes nostrodamus (Fasrictus, 1793) — Mediterranean Skipper CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -628 (-51.27%) -805 (-65.71%) BAMBU -626 (-51.1%) -828 (-67.59%) -718 (58.61%) | -927 (-75.67%) SEDG -731 (-59.67%) | -1005 (-82.04%) BAMBU -912 (-74.45%) | -1142 (-93.22%) -1035 (-84.49%) | -1216 (-99.27%) © Thomas Kissling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1225 cells) Like the Pigmy Skipper (G. pumilo), the Mediterranean Skipper can be found 1n rocky or stony places, such as dried-up riverbeds, on dry, grassy vegetation or in thickets, and low scrub along the coast. The males defend their territory perched on a stone or on the ground, returning to the same spot if disturbed. These butterflies fly fast and close to the ground. The larvae feed on Reed (Phragmites australis) and the grass Saccharum ravennae. It has one to three generations a year. There are far fewer butterflies in the spring than in the summer or autumn. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Gegenes nostrodamus (Hesperiidae) 103 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 104 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Zerynthia rumina (LINNAEUS, 1767) — Spanish Festoon a oe -1378 (-39.37%) | -1932 (-55.2%) -1187 (-33.91%) | -2196 (-62.74%) SEDG -1574 (-44.97%) | -2617 (-74.77%) BAMBU_ | -2119 (-60.54%) | -3078 (-87.94%) -1967 (-56.2%) | -3405 (-97.29%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3500 cells) The Spanish Festoon can be found on scrub and dry, grassy vegetation. The butterflies are often found in rocky areas, where they can be seen, wings widespread, basking on stones, warming themselves in the sun. The female lays her eggs singly or in small groups on birthworts (Aristolochia spp.), such as A. longa, A. rotunda, and A. pistolochia. The caterpillars feed on these poisonous plants, pupating for the winter. It can sometimes take two to three years before the butterfly emerges from the pupa. Apart form a few sites in southern Spain the species 1s single brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HHHR Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 3 a p4 Pa _ is} oc S : . . , —_ : ? ; _ ah o o w o fad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Swe 0.6 1.0 Oo2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 105 Zerynthia rumina (Papilionidae) 2080 2050 106 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Zerynthia polyxena ({[SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Southern Festoon SEDG 4158 (84.87%) | -1612 (-32.9%) BAMBU 3432 (70.06%) | -3156 (-64.42%) 4141 (84.53%) | -3917 (-79.96%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4899 cells) The caterpillars of the Southern Festoon live on various birthworts, such as Anstolochia clematilis, A. rotunda, A. palhda, and A. pistolochia. Because their foodplants grow in different habitats, and because the caterpillars also have different foodplants in different areas, this spring butterfly can be found in quite different habitats. The eggs are laid singly or in small groups on the underside of the leaves, where the caterpillars are usually also found. The caterpillars have a striking appearance. Otherwise beige with black spots, it has some orange tubercles on each segment, each ending in a black, spiny tuft. The Southern Festoon ts single-brooded and hibernates as pupa. This species is listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 Swe E 1.0 0.2 0.6 10 O02 fh 1.0 q | p< < Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 0.2 Swe 06 o2 L=] 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 odd 4000 Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 107 Zerynthia polyxena (Papilonidae) 2080 2050 108 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Zerynthia cerisyi (GopaRT, 1822) — Eastern Festoon Cc Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG 1685 (291.02%) -11 (-1.9%) BAMBU_ | 2079 (359.07%) -10 (-1.73%) 2080 (359.24%) -23 (-3.97%) SEDG 2970 (512.95%) -35 (-6.04%) BAMBU | 3022 (521.93%) | -73 (-12.61%) 4073 (703.45%) | -71 (-12.26%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 579 cells) The Eastern Festoon occurs in warm, usually dry, places such as in dry grassland with scattered bushes, in scrub, near hedges, on agricultural land, vineyards and olive groves. It is also found in river valleys. Choosing plants growing near bushes or trees, the female lays her eggs mostly on Birthwort (Anstolochia clematitis), but also on other birthworts. The Eastern Festoon has one generation a year and passes the winter in the pupal stage. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - faa 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 109 Zerynthia cerisyt (Papilonidae) 2080 2050 110 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Parnassius mnemosyne (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Clouded Apollo .6—hlcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -465 (-5.1%) -2308 (-25.34%) -1793 (-19.68%) | -2980 (-32.71%) |GRAS | -1983 (-21.77%) | -3222 (-35.37%) SEDG -175 (-1.92%) | -4413 (48.45%) BAMBU_ | _ -2536 (-27.84%) | -6269 (-68.82%) -2163 (-23.75%) | -7025 (-77.12%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9109 cells) The Clouded Apollo occurs in mountainous regions on damp to moderately dry grassland, usually with woodland or scrub in the neighbourhood. The butterflies can often be seen visiting red or purple flowers for the nectar they need. The foodplant is Corydads, that at the time of egg laying is not yet above ground. The eggs are laid on its dried stems, on grass blades, or on other plants not too far from the foodplants. The egg hibernates. In the spring, as soon as it has released itself from the egg, the small caterpillar starts its search for a suitable foodplant. When fully-grown, it pupates in a closely spun cocoon of fine threads, situated above the ground in the leaves of the foodplant. The Clouded Apollo has one generation a year. This species is listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 111 Parnassius mnemosyne (Papilionidae) 2080 2050 112 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Parnassius phoebus (Fasrictus, 1793) — Small Apollo .—hCcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -275 (-24.71%) -455 (-40.88%) BAMBU -198 (-17.79%) | -388 (-34.86%) -314 (-28.21%) | -488 (-43.85%) SEDG -526 (-47.26%) | -755 (-67.83%) BAMBU -364 (-32.7%) -645 (57.95%) 574 (-51.57%) | -804 (-72.24%) © Jostein Engdal Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1113 cells) The Small Apollo occurs in the mountains, especially in damp places, such as beside streams and where it gets flooded from time to time. Such spots are the habitat of the larval food plant Yellow Mountain Saxifrage (Saxzfraga aixoides). However, 1n the Mercantour in the south-west of the Alps, the foodplant is Roseroot (Rhodiola roseum). Although the eggs are sometimes laid on the foodplant, they are also often laid not far from it. The very small caterpillar sometimes passes the winter in the egg, sometimes outside it. The fully-grown caterpillars are black with a row of orange-red or yellow spots along each side. At the beginning of the summer, they spin a fluamsy cocoon in which to pupate, either low down on the larval plant, or on the ground. The Small Apollo is single- brooded. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 113 Parnassius phoebus (Papilionidae) 2080 2050 114 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Parnassius apollo (LiNNAEus, 1758) — Apollo a -2915 (-46.47%) | -3479 (-55.46%) SEDG -2234 (-35.61%) | -3431 (54.69%) BAMBU_ | -3319 (-52.91%) | -4177 (-66.59%) -3972 (-63.32%) | -4758 (-75.85%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6278 cells) The Apollo occurs in areas on steep, sunny slopes with sparse vegetation. In Europe, there are many different subspecies, forms and aberrations, because of the large isolation of populations. The butterflies are fond of visiting thistles and other flowering plants for their nectar. The female lays her eggs singly or in small groups on or near the foodplant stonecrop (Sedum spp.). The eggs develop but the tiny caterpillar hibernates inside the eggshell or as newly hatched larvae. It emerges in the spring, and starts feeding on the buds of the foodplant. The caterpillars of later instars also eat the leaves. When it is time to pupate, the caterpillars look for a safe place between the stones, where they then spin a flimsy cocoon for pupation. The Apollo is single-brooded. This species is listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd d Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Parnassius apollo (Papilionidae) 115 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 116 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Iphiclides podalirius (LINNAEUus, 1758) — Scarce Swallowtail a : GRAS 3058 (29.47%) | -1226 (-11.81%) SEDG 4380 (42.2%) | -1186 (-11.43%) BAMBU 3105 (29.92%) | -3182 (-30.66%) 3433 (33.08%) | -4169 (-40.17%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 10378 cells) This large, conspicuous butterfly with its elegant gliding flight, is very impressive. It occurs in warm, dry places with scrub and rough vegetation. The males of the Scarce Swallowtail congregate on hilltops, dancing in the air and waiting for the females, a type of behaviour known as “hill- topping”. They visit thistles and other flowers rich in nectar. The eggs are laid on the leaves of small bushes or trees of Blackthorn (Prunus spinosa) and other species of Prunus. The caterpillars feed on the leaves. When fully-grown, they pupate, the pupa suspended in a silken girdle in the foodplant. Depending on its position in the range and on the altitude, the Scarce Swallowtail has one to three generations a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Gad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Iphichides podahrius (Papilionidae) 117 118 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Papilio machaon LinNaAEus, 1758 — Swallowtail oe 1206 (5.65%) -428 (-2.01%) SEDG 2637 (12.36%) -809 (-3.79%) BAMBU 1066 (5%) -2547 (-11.94%) 227 (1.06%) -4167 (-19.53%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 21332 cells) The Swallowtail is a species of flower-rich meadows and small-scale farmland. The males and females meet at elevated places or above high trees, showing a type of behaviour known as “hill- topping”. The butterfly of the Swallowtail needs a lot of nectar. Eggs are laid on various umbellifers, including Wild Carrot (Daucus carota). The fully-grown larvae are very conspicuous, bright green with black stripes and orange spots. Caterpillars from autumn broods leave the foodplant to pupate on the ground and hibernation takes place as a pupa. The caterpillars of the summer broods pupate low down on the larval foodplant. Depending on geographic setting, the Swallowtail produces one to three generations a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.67). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum she =| toad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Papilio machaon (Papilionidae) 119 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1FI) 120 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Papilio alexanor Esper, 1799 — Southern Swallowtail .—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -224 (-32.61%) -404 (-58.81%) BAMBU -277 (-40.32%) | -436 (-63.46%) -278 (-40.47%) | -454 (-66.08%) SEDG -257 (-37.41%) | -455 (-66.23%) BAMBU -380 (-55.31%) | -534 (-77.73%) 62 cara) | 592 Coa © Josef Pennerstorfer Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 687 cells) The Southern Swallowtail is mostly found on warm, dry calcareous slopes with a flower-rich vegetation and low-growing bushes. They prefer slopes that are steep and rocky. Different foodplants are known, all of them umbellifers. Pahots saxifraga 1s the most important one in the western part of its range, but eggs are also laid on Opopanan chironium, Seseh montanum, and Trinia glauca. In the eastern part, the caterpillars feed mostly on various of fennels (Feria spp.), and also on Opopanax hispidus, Burnet saxifrage (Pimpinella saxifraga), Scaligeria cretica, and Wild Parsnip (Pastinaca sativa). Vhe caterpillars eat the flowers and ripening seeds. The Southern Swallowtail is single-brooded and passes the winter in the pupa stage. This species is listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.0 Swe o.2 0.6 1.0 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd G Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Papilio alexanor (Papilionidae) 121 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 2050 2080 122 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Leptidea sinapis (LINNAEUS, 1758) / reali REIssSINGER, 1990 (complex) — Wood White SEDG 1829 (10.09%) | -2394 (-13.21%) BAMBU 236 (1.3%) -2733 (-15.08%) ose | ass co SEDG 2744 (15.14%) | -3709 (-20.46%) BAMBU 1117 (6.16%) | -5664 (-31.25%) 795 (4.39%) -7192 (-39.68%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 18126 cells) At present, the Wood White is divided into two species, L. stnapis (LINNAEUS, 1758) and L. reah REISSINGER, 1990, which are indistinguishable in the field. Their distribution is not yet entirely clear. Their life cycles are similar. These fragile butterflies occur on damp, warm grassland near bushes and scrub. They lay their thin, spindle-shaped eggs on different sorts of Lathyrus and birdsfoot-trefoil (Lotus spp.). Cream, turning to bright yellow as they mature, they are easy to find. The pupa ts pale- green, and the winter is spent in this stage. In the north of its range, it is single-brooded, but in the middle it has two generations a year, and in the south sometimes three. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.63). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh a 0 = Ow =a ie] sit} oO e Ec I ‘dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Leptidea sinapis / reali (Pieridae) | 123 SEDG (B1) GRAS (A1FI) 124 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Leptidea duponcheli (StauDINGER, 1871) — Eastern Wood White 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 221 19.19%) -712 (-63.74%) BAMBU_ | -186 (-16.65%) | -812 (-72.69%) 22 (1.97%) -856 (-76.63%) SEDG 32 (2.86%) -782 (-70.01%) BAMBU -628 (-56.22%) | -1009 (-90.33%) -594 (-53.18%) | -1066 (-95.43%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1117 cells) The Eastern Wood White occurs on dry grassland, often where scattered trees or bushes are growing, and also in open woods. It is found on both calcareous and non-calcareous soils. The habitats of the Eastern Wood White are drier and warmer than those of the Wood White (L. scmapis complex). The eggs are laid on the leaves of Meadow Vetchling (Lathyrus pratensis), Yellow Vetchling (L. aphaca) and birdsfoot-trefoils (Lois spp.), mostly on plants growing in the shade. The caterpillars feed on the leaves of the foodplant. The Eastern Wood White is double-brooded and hibernates in the pupal stage. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.69). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum pm o xh o aad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 125 Leptidea duponcheh (Pieridae) 2080 2050 126 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Leptidea morsei (FENTON, 1881) — Fenton’s Wood White SEDG 188 (12%) -1154 (-73.64%) BAMBU 761 (48.56%) -988 (-63.05%) 370 (23.61%) -893 (-56.99%) SEDG 293 (18.7%) -1416 (-90.36%) BAMBU 196 (12.51%) | -1328 (-84.75%) -133 (-8.49%) | -1198 (-76.45%) © Helmut Héttinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1567 cells) Apart from its greater size and slightly falcate forewings the species can be separated from the other Wood Whites by conspicuous gliding flight sometimes displayed by males. The habitat of Fenton’s Wood White is almost exclusively highly structured deciduous woodland. The only confirmed food plant of this species in Europe is Black Pea (Lathyrus niger). This butterfly is double-brooded and hibernates 1n the pupal stage. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a _ cH =) a = ow | io m™ oO a : : ; — : ; cH o H o toad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Leptidea morsei (Pieridae) 127 128 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Anthocharis cardamines (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Orange-tip a -2928 (-15.58%) | -4787 (-25.47%) SEDG -2159 (-11.49%) | -4447 (23.66%) BAMBU_ | -4765 (-25.35%) | -7476 (-39.78%) -6918 (-36.81%) | -10040 (-53.42%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 18795 cells) In Western Europe, the first Orange-tip gives us the feeling that spring has arrived. However, high in the mountains, these butterflies only appear in early summer. The Orange-tip occurs in damp to quite wet grasslands at the edge of woods, or near thickets. The eggs are laid singly on flowerheads of different crucifers. At first, the caterpillars feed on the flowerbuds of the foodplant and later on the fruits. They live alone, which accords with their cannibalistic nature. When ready to pupate, they move into rough vegetation, climbing up a little twig and turning into an attractive light-brown pupa, suspended from the plant by a silken girdle. The Orange-tip hibernates in this stage and has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.7). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘sad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ad 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 129 Alnthocharis cardamines (Pieridae) 2080 2050 130 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Anthocharis euphenoides STauDINGER, 1869 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Hee SEDG -989 (-33.3%) -1744 (-58.72%) -1299 (-43.74%) -1763 (-59.36%) -1948 (-65.59%) | -2614 (-88.01%) -1956 (-65.86%) | -2887 (-97.21%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2970 cells) This butterfly inhabits warm, dry places with flower-rich, grassy vegetation and scattered bushes. Eggs are laid one by one on the flowerbuds of various crucifers, such as the buckler mustards Biscutella laevigata and B. auriculata, London Rocket (Szsymwbrium irio), and Hedge Mustard (S. officinale). The caterpillars feed mainly on ovaries, but at times are also cannibalistic. This species hibernates as a pupa and has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 fed 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 131 Alnthocharis euphenoides (Pieridae) 2080 2050 132 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Anthocharis gruneri HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1851—Gruner’s Orange-tip CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -266 (-26.68%) -613 (-61.48%) -330 (-33.1%) -648 (-64.99%) -356 (-35.71%) | -696 (-69.81%) -666 (-66.8%) -888 (-89.07%) -TT3 (-77.53%) | -971 (97.39%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 997 cells) Gruner’s Orange-tip lives on dry, open grasslands, on rocky, often calcareous slopes, scrub and clearings in dry woodland. The eggs are laid on Aethionema species, including Burnt Candytuft (A. saxatile) and A. orbiculatum, the caterpillars eating both the leaves and ripening seeds. It is single-brooded and the pupa hibernates. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 133 Alnthocharis gruneri (Pieridae) (1a) 504s (ZV) nNanva (ld bY) SVH9 2080 2050 134 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Zegris eupheme (Esper, 1805) — Sooty Orange-tip 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -411 (-47.9%) -520 (-60.61%) BAMBU -536 (-62.47%) -562 (-65.5%) -456 (-53.15%) -580 (-67.6%) SEDG -765 (-89.16%) | -766 (-89.28%) BAMBU -837 (-97.55%) | -837 (-97.55%) -849 (-98.95%) | -849 (-98.95%) © Neil Thompson Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 858 cells) The Sooty Orange-tip is mostly seen in dry, flower-rich places, waste ground, and abandoned agricultural land. Crucifers, such as London Rocket (Szsywbrium irio), the buckler mustard Bescutel/la auriculata, Hoary Mustard (Harschfeldia incana), and radishes (Raphanus spp.), ate usually abundant in its habitat. They are used by the butterflies for their nectar and as larval foodplants. The butterflies have a quick, zigzageine flight. The Sooty Orange-tip hibernates as a pupa. This pupal stage may last for one, two, or three years. It is single-brooded. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.97). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 135 Zegris eupheme (Pieridae) (ZV) Nganva (ld LV) SVH9D 2080 2050 136 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euchloe belemia (EsPEr, 1798) — Green-striped White hc Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -289 (-41.58%) -377 (-54.24%) BAMBU -424 (-61.01%) | -432 (-62.16%) -400 (-57.55%) | -446 (-64.17%) SEDG -338 (-48.63%) | -495 (-71.22%) BAMBU -607 (-87.34%) | -626 (-90.07%) -649 (-93.38%) -670 (-96.4%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 695 cells) The Green-striped White occurs in flower-rich places, between bushes, on waste ground, and on abandoned agricultural land. It occurs locally, but can be numerous in its flight area. The butterfly flies quickly and close to the ground. The caterpillars eat the ripening seeds of different crucifers, such as the buckler mustard Bescutella auriculata, candytufts [bers spp.) including Annual Candytuft (I. amara), and rockets (Sisymbrium spp.). The Green-striped White has two broods a year in the spring, and passes the winter as a pupa. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum tod 4000 0 odd 4000 0 aad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Euchloe belemia (Pieridae) 137 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 138 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euchloe ausonia (HUBNER, 1806) (complex) — Dappled White en ea -91 (-2.03%) -1080 (-24.09%) [axas —|er9 SEDG 338 (7.54%) -1439 (-32.1%) BAMBU -327 (-7.29%) | -2058 (-45.91%) GRAS -265 (-5.91%) | -2472 (-55.14%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4483 cells) Due to data availability we here treat Ewch/oe ausonia (HUBNER, 1806), Euchloe simplonia Preyer, 1829, and Euchloe cramert BUTLER, 1869, as the Dappled White species complex, knowing that they are normally being treated as distinct species. The Dappled Whites are species of warm, dry places. They occur on flower-rich grasslands and waste ground, along hedges and the edges of woods. Various crucifers are used as larval foodplant, such as a Charlock (Szsywbrium arvensis), Woad (Isatis tinctoria), buckler mustards (Bzscutella spp.), Evergreen Candytuft (Iberis sempervirens), and Crested Bunias (Bumias erucago). The caterpillars feed on the flowers and ripening seeds. They are double-brooded and hibernate as pupa. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum did 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o6 10 02 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 139 E:uchloe ausonia (Pieridae) 2080 2050 140 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euchloe tagis (HUBNER, 1804) — Portuguese Dappled White 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -590 (-18.72%) -1537 (-48.76%) BAMBU -999 (-31.69%) | -1507 (-47.81%) -794 (-25.19%) | -1692 (-53.68%) SEDG -920 (-29.19%) | -1943 (-61.64%) BAMBU -1535 (-48.7%) | -2350 (-74.56%) -1749 (55.49%) | -2743 (-87.02%) © Jean Delacre Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3152 cells) This butterfly owes its specific name to the River Tagus in Portugal, along the banks of which it was first found. The Portuguese Dappled White is found on warm, dry rocky places with patches of flower-rich grassy vegetation, in dry scrub, and on abandoned agricultural land. Various crucifers are used as foodplant, such as candytufts (/ders spp.), including [. chata, I. saxatis and Annual Candytuft (I. amara), and buckler mustards (Bzscwiella spp.). The caterpillars eat the ovaries and flowers. It has one brood a year and hibernates as a pupa. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 141 E:uchloe tagis (Pieridae) 2080 2050 142 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aporta crataegi (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Black-veined White .—hlcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -661 (-3.52%) | -2426 (-12.91%) -1530 (8.14%) | -3266 (-17.39%) -2410 (-12.83%) | -6143 (-32.7%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 18785 cells) The Black-veined White can be found on many different sorts of vegetation in a variety of landscapes, but seems to prefer habitats in the neighbourhood of woods or scrub. Numbers of this migratory species can fluctuate greatly and the reasons for this are not well understood. The species may build up huge populations at unusual places such as hedges along motorways, but also disappear from large areas for many years. The eggs are laid in large clusters of often sixty or more, on the leaves of trees and bushes of the rose family (Rosaceae), such as hawthorn (Crafaegus spp.), Blackthorn (Prunus spinosa), Cherry (Prunus spp.), Apple (Malus spp.), also in orchards. The caterpillars spend their time ina communal silken nest until they pupate, the nest 1n which they hibernate being more substantial. When they are ready to pupate, they disperse over the foodplant. The yellow pupa with black spots suspends in a silken girdle. The Black-veined White has one brood a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.69). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe o2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 143 Alporia crataegi (Pieridae) 2080 2050 144 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pieris brassicae (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Large White .—hlcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -1904 (-8.11%) -3228 (-13.75%) BAMBU_ | -3133 (-13.34%) | -4027 (-17.15%) -3241 (-13.8%) | -4419 (-18.82%) SEDG -3429 (-14.6%) | -5640 (-24.02%) BAMBU_ | -6368 (-27.12%) | -8473 (-36.08%) -8906 (-37.93%) | -11751 (-50.04%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 23482 cells) You can come across the Large White almost everywhere. It lays its eggs singly or in small clusters on the underside of the foodplants, which are mainly broad-leaved Brassicaceae (like Brassica, Crambe, Lunaria, Cakile) that offer enough food for the gregarious caterpillars, but also species of the introduced genus Tropaeolum (Tropaeolaceae) which also contains glucosinolates On such a nutritious diet, the caterpillar grows very quickly, reaching the pupal stage in three to six weeks. The attractive white pupa is suspended in a silken girdle from the foodplant. The Large White has several generations a year, the number depending on the geographical location and latitude of the flight area, and the leneth of the summer. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.66). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum tad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pieris brasswae (Pieridae) SEDG 145 (B1) GRAS (A1Fl) 146 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pieris krueperi (STAUDINGER, 1860) — Kriiper’s Small White .—hCcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 216 (16.44%) -619 (-47.11%) BAMBU 11 (0.84%) -604 (-45.97%) 29%) | aR SEDG 446 (33.94%) -748 (-56.93%) BAMBU -141 (-10.73%) | -900 (-68.49%) 36 (2.74%) -1033 (-78.61%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1314 cells) Krueper’s Small White occurs 1n warm, dry places on calcareous, rocky slopes with scattered low, herbaceous vegetation. Eggs are laid on the sepals of Golden Alyssum (44ssum saxatile), and A. montanum. Vhe caterpillars feed on the ovaries. It hibernates as a pupa and has two or more generations a yeat. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum bs! a bie 2 aes = oH : Oo ba ad 2 =] bah} o 2000, 4000 0 ord 4000 0 2000 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Swe Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 16 Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 147 Pieris Rrueperi (Pieridae) 2080 2050 148 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pieris mannit (MAYER, 1851) — Southern Small White .—hCcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 214 (12.51%) -572 (-33.45%) 221 (12.92%) -716 (-41.87%) 639 (37.37%) | -1318 (-77.08%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1710 cells) The Southern Small White, which looks very much like the Small White (P. rapae), occurs on both calcareous and non-calcareous dry, grassy vegetation, in open scrub and open woodland. The most important larval foodplants are the candytufts Evergreen Candytuft (Ibers sempervirens) and I. saxatilsis,.although other crucifers, such as Adssoides utriculata, and mustards (Sznapis spp.) ate also used. The eggs are laid singly or in small groups on the uppersides of the leaves. The caterpillars feed on the leaves. It has several generations a year, pupating on plant stalks and stones. It overwinters as a pupa, and the butterflies emerge in the spring. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum todd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 149 Pieris mannii (Pieridae) 2080 2050 150 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pieris rapae (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Small White .—hCcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 82 (0.34%) -1502 (-6.22%) BAMBU -690 (-2.86%) -1742 (-7.22%) -891 (-3.69%) -2258 (-9.35%) SEDG -670 (-2.78%) | -3296 (-13.65%) BAMBU_ | -3119 (-12.92%) | -6008 (-24.89%) -4088 (-16.93%) | -8043 (-33.31%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 24148 cells) The Small White is found in any sort of habitat where its larval foodplants grow, such as gardens, parks, grasslands, heathland and woodland. The eggs are laid on the underside of the leaves of a wide variety of crucifers, including cultivated brassicas, and also on Reseda species, such as Wild Mignonette (R. 4wiea). The caterpillars grow very rapidly, sometimes pupating after two weeks. The pupa hangs in a silken girdle, normally on vertical surfaces, and hibernates in this stage. The Small White has several generations a year, depending on the geographical position and altitude of the flight area, and the length of the summer. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.69). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ead 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 o.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 151 Pieris rapae (Pieridae) 2080 2050 152 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pieris ergane (GEYER, 1828) — Mountain Small White .—hClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG 94 (4.38%) -786 (-36.63%) -101 (-4.71%) -932 (-43.43%) -90 (-4.19%) -1043 (-48.6%) SEDG 527 (24.56%) | -1157 (-53.91%) BAMBU 223 (10.39%) | -1684 (-78.47%) 519 (24.18%) | -1894 (-88.26%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2146 cells) The Mountain Small White likes warm and dry places, and is found on dry, poor grasslands, in rocky places, in open scrub and in large clearings in woods. The flight areas are usually on calcareous soil. The males can sometimes be seen in large groups on damp ground. Compared to other whites, this butterfly has a slow and measured flight. The main larval foodplant is Burnt Candytuft (Aeshionema saxalile), butA. orbiculatum and Woad (Isatis tinctoria) are also used. The eggs are laid singly. The pupa is normally fixed to stones and rocks. There are two or three generations a year, and the pupa of the autumn generation hibernates. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pieris ergane (Pieridae) 153 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 154 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pieris napi (LINNAEvs, 1758) — Green-veined White [rear [Rea -3275 (-12.38%) | -3819 (-14.43%) SEDG -3817 (-14.43%) | -4424 (-16.72%) BAMBU_ | -5386 (-20.36%) | -6063 (-22.91%) -7583 (-28.66%) | -8253 (-31.19%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 26459 cells) The Green-veined White occurs in many different habitats and landscapes with varying amounts of shelter. It can be found on all types of grasslands and heathlands in open or more closed landscapes. However, a too dry habitat is not favourable. This butterfly is very variable in appearance, having several forms and subspecies. The eggs are laid singly or in small numbers on many, mostly wild, crucifers It pupates on a stalk and overwinters in this stage. The Green-veined White has several broods a year, the number depending on the geographical location and altitude of the flight area, and the length of the summer. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.73). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 | aq = oy a fee) i ee ef@eEs o= mH =e £5 8 Oo. 4 of 7 D> o mq = a ger a | tage a @e- 2 o wv x é Pon] = 4 o 0 2000 4000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 155 Pieris napi (Pieridae) 2080 2050 156 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pieris bryoniae (HUBNER, 1791) — Mountain Green-veined White a de 521 (-44.04%) | -594 (-50.21%) SEDG -312 (-26.37%) | -637 (-53.85%) BAMBU -197 (-16.65%) | -655 (-55.37%) -303 (-25.61%) | -844 (-71.34%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1183 cells) The butterfly of the Mountain Green-veined White strongly resembles that of the Green-veined White (P. napi). The eggs, caterpillars and pupae are also almost indistinguishable. In some places, such as in the Alps and the Jura Mountains, these species occur together. The Mountain Green-veined White is found in flower-rich grasslands along river banks, and at woodland edges. Buckler Mustard (Bescutella laevigata), pennycresses (Thlaspi spp.) and bittercresses (Cardamine spp.) ate used as foodplants. The female, heavily dusted on her upperside with yellow or grey, lays her eggs singly on the flowers or leaves of the larval foodplant. She shows a preference for smaller plants growing on poor ground. It has one or two generations a year and hibernates 1n the pupal stage. In areas where this species occurs together with P. napi (like in the SE Alps), one may often find hybrids of both species. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 o2 Swe 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 157 Pieris bryoniae (Pieridae) 2080 2050 158 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pontia callidice (HiBNER, 1800) — Peak White CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -182 (-20.43%) -347 (-38.95%) BAMBU -97 (-10.89%) -296 (-33.22%) -211 (-23.68%) | -370 (-41.53%) SEDG -452 (-50.73%) | -639 (-71.72%) BAMBU -280 (-31.43%) | -509 (-57.13%) -481 (-53.98%) | -682 (-76.54%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 891 cells) The Peak White is found high in the mountains in flower-rich grasslands. The eggs are laid singly on Alpine Bittercress (Cardamine belhdifola ssp. alpina), Hutchinsia alpina, Erysimum helveticum, and Reseda glauca, especially on those growing on open stony patches. The caterpillars mostly eat the lower leaves, and hide under stones when the weather is bad. In the Alps, the Peak White usually has only one generation a year and hibernates as a pupa. However, in good summers or at lower altitudes, a partial second generation is sometimes produced that passes the winter as a caterpillar. In the Spanish Pyrenees, two generations a year are usual, and it hibernates either as a pupa or a caterpillar. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o _ cH =) a = Ow =a io m™ Oo a : : : : i ; 4 o = os o ‘aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 159 Pontia callidice (Pieridae) 2080 2050 160 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pontia daplidice (LINNAEUs, 1758) / edusa (Fasrictus, 1777) (complex) — Bath White .—hCcLUwEe Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 4490 (29.33%) -364 (-2.38%) S Ys) 3091 (20.19%) | -2391 (-15.62%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 15310 cells) The Bath White complex has been split into two species in the 1980s, P. daphdice (LINNAEUS, 1758), which mainly occurs 1n the Western Mediterranean, and P. edusa (Fasrictus, 1777), which 1s distributed over the rest of Europe. However, these two species cannot be distinguished tn the field. Their life cycles are also very similar. The adult butterflies are very mobile, fast flying and migrate northwards and westwards 1n warm years. They occur in warm, stony places; often disturbed ground, such as road verges, abandoned agricul- tural land or quarries. The females lay their eggs on such crucifers as mustards (Sznapis spp.), Adssum spp., and also on mignonettes (Reseda spp.). The caterpillars feed mainly on the flowers and seeds. Pupation takes place on the stalk of the foodplant. These species have two or more broods a year and hibernate as pupae. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6. Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) td o =I ze o ™ o ae 4000 0 ad 4000 0 iy 4000 0 ee 4000 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pontia daplidice | edusa (Pieridae) | 161 (B1) SEDG GRAS (AFI) 162 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias phicomone (Esper, 1780) — Mountain Clouded Yellow .6—hCcLUwe Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -306 (-21.5%) -513 (-36.05%) BAMBU_ | -209 (-14.69%) | -450 (-31.62%) -432 (-30.36%) | -611 (-42.94%) SEDG -562 (-39.49%) | -890 (-62.54%) BAMBU_ | -426 (-29.94%) | -781 (-54.88%) -665 (-46.73%) | -1017 (-71.47%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1423 cells) The Mountain Clouded Yellow has its breeding ground in flower-rich alpine meadows. Although they are quick, strong flyers, they are not migrants and do not leave their habitat. Various leguminous plants are used as larval foodplant, including Horseshoe Vetch (Hippocrepis comosa), White Clover (Trifokum repens), Common Birdsfoot-trefoil (Lotus corniculatus), and vetches (Vicia spp.). This butterfly species usually only has one generation a year, but in some years there is a partial second brood. The caterpillars hibernate after their second moult. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum si =| ° = : - ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 aad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Colas phicomone (Pieridae) 163 164 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias palaeno (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Moorland Clouded Yellow a SEDG -3370 (-34.09%) | -3889 (-39.34%) BAMBU -4202 (-42.5%) | -4562 (-46.15%) -5087 (51.46%) | -5433 (54.96%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9886 cells) The Moorland Clouded Yellow occurs at the edges of raised bogs, and also on blanket bogs. At high altitudes, it is found in drier habitats. Eggs are laid singly on Bog Whortleberry (Vaccinium uliginosum). At first, the caterpillars only eat the upper layers of the leaf , producing “windows”, but later, the whole leaf is eaten. The caterpillars hibernate among the dry leaves of the litter layer, and the next spring feed and grow further, before finally pupating on a branch of the foodplant. It has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh a i=) =) a ee Pe Oe ae =a o= mH =e £5 3 Oo. 4 os © aes Ga” = = rm ae qf. = 22 wo x é P= = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 165 Colas palaeno (Pieridae) 2080 2050 166 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias erate (EsPErR, 1805) — Eastern Pale Clouded Yellow CL Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 2797 (116.83%) -331 (-13.83%) BAMBU 815 (34.04%) | -1199 (-50.08%) 1982 (82.79%) | -989 (-41.31%) SEDG 1379 (57.6%) | -1160 (-48.45%) BAMBU | -317 (-13.24%) | -2059 (-86.01%) 44 (1.84%) -22.60 (-94.4%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2394 cells) The Eastern Pale Clouded Yellow is a very mobile species and can therefore be seen in all sorts of places. This species greatly extended its range during the 1970s and 80s. 50 years ago this mainly Asian species was known in Europe only from the Black Sea coast. Lucerne (Medicago saliva) 1s its most important larval foodplant and they are most numerous in areas where it 1s grown. The caterpillars can also be found on other leguminous plants. This species has several generations a year; three to five have been reported from Bulgaria and Romania. This species passes the winter as a caterpillar (probably without diapause). Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o =o wo E35 =H tl = s o =, ow =o wo tH o z : = . : : ; oa = w dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Colas erate (Pieridae) 167 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 168 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias croceus (GEOFFROY, 1785) — Clouded Yellow © Chris van Swaay .—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 1037 (6.41%) | -1750 (-10.81%) BAMBU -123 (-0.76%) -2525 (-15.6%) -420 (-2.59%) | -2931 (-18.11%) SEDG -962 (-5.94%) | -3518 (-21.74%) BAMBU -3091 (-19.1%) | -5896 (-36.43%) -4329 (-26.75%) | -7460 (-46.09%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 16185 cells) In good summers, the Clouded Yellow is a very fast flyer and can be seen practically over the whole of Europe, often on fields of clover or lucerne, or other flower-rich vegetations. It lays its eggs one by one, on the leaves of such leguminous plants as Lucerne (Medicago sativa), clovers (Infolum spp.), and vetches (Vaza spp.). It pupates, suspended in a silken girdle on the foodplant. In the south, it usually passes the winter as a caterpillar. In the north, because it cannot tolerate the cold, 1t only appears as a summer migrant, recolonizing from the south. This species has four to six broods a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: LR. Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche (orange areas) Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum mM o ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 169 Colias croceus (Pieridae) 2080 2050 170 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias hecla LEFEBVRE, 1836 — Northern Clouded Yellow .—ClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -736 (-75.1%) -785 (-80.1%) -767 (-78.27%) | -791 (-80.71%) © Jostein Engdal Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 980 cells) The Northern Clouded Yellow occurs in the mountains of Lapland above the birch zone, on open, grassy meadows, and stony slopes. The butterflies fly very quickly and are difficult to approach. Eggs are laid singly or in small groups on the larval foodplants, or on neighbouring plants. Alpine Milk- vetch (Astragalus alpinus) 1s the most important foodplant, but other milk-vetches (4stragalus spp.) may also be used. The caterpillars feed on the flowers, leaves and stems, sometimes taking two years to complete their life-cycle. Hibernation can take place as a caterpillar or a pupa. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Colas hecla (Pieridae) 2080 171 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 172 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias myrmidone (EsPrER, 1780) — Danube Clouded Yellow .—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG -329 (-7.74%) -1351 (-31.77%) -2181 (-51.29%) | -2616 (-61.52%) |GRAS | -1528 (-35.94%) | -2196 (-51.65%) SEDG -1896 (-44.59%) | -3193 (-75.09%) BAMBU_ | -2971 (-69.87%) | -3887 (-91.42%) -2667 (-62.72%) | -4048 (-95.2%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4252 cells) The Danube Clouded Yellow occurs in dry, warm grassland where its foodplant, the broom Chamaecylisus ratisbonensis, C. supnus, C. capitatus, C. austiracus ate abundant. However, the amount of shelter from bushes can vary considerably. The female lays her eggs on the foodplant, the caterpillars hibernate in the litter layer. It has two to three broods a year. In contrast to the Eastern Pale Clouded Yellow, this species has disappeared from most of its former locations in Central Europe and 1s now extinct in several countries. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 173 done (Pieridae) LaS MMyVlit Cob 2080 2050 174 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias chrysotheme (EsPrEr, 1780) — Lesser Clouded Yellow .—hCcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 416 (55.32%) -489 (-65.03%) BAMBU -246 (-32.71%) | -565 (-75.13%) 463 (61.57%) -559 (-74.34%) SEDG -519 (-69.02%) | -665 (-88.43%) BAMBU -490 (-65.16%) | -707 (-94.02%) -550 (-73.14%) -733 (-97.47%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 752 cells) The Lesser Clouded Yellow is found on open, dry, steppe-like grassland and rocky slopes. Its main foodplant is the Milk-vetch (Astragalus austriacus), but Milk-vetch (A. gheyphyllos) and vetches (Vicia spp.) are also used. This species has three to four broods a year and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum add 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 175 Colas chrysotheme (Pieridae) 2080 2050 176 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias byale (LINNAEus, 1758) — Pale Clouded Yellow .—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -437 (-3.49%) -2793 (-22.28%) BAMBU -305 (-2.43%) | -2961 (-23.62%) -786 (-6.27%) | -3393 (-27.07%) SEDG -905 (-7.22%) | -5229 (-41.72%) BAMBU_ | -1777 (-14.18%) | -7208 (-57.5%) -3035 (-24.21%) -9284 (-74.06%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12535 cells) The Pale Clouded Yellow is mostly found on fields of clover or lucerne, but also on meadows that are lightly grazed where many leguminous plants are growing. It prefers open landscapes with few trees or bushes. Eggs are laid singly on many species of Leguminosae. The caterpillar feeds on young leaves and overwinters as half-grown caterpillar. It pupates, suspended in a girdle from a stalk on the foodplant. The Pale Clouded Yellow has two or three generations a year. In the northern part of its range, it is a migrant species, but in most of Central Europe it is a resident. The adult Pale Clouded Yellow is very hard to distinguish from Berger’s Clouded Yellow (Codas adfacariensis), while the larvae are very different. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum mM o 2 : : : . dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Colas hyale (Pieridae) 177 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 178 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Colias alfacariensis Risse, 1905 — Berger’s Clouded Yellow a SEDG -812 (-8.42%) | -4054 (-42.02%) BAMBU_ | -1547 (-16.03%) | -5409 (-56.06%) -2461 (-25.51%) | -6649 (-68.92%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9648 cells) The Berger’s Clouded Yellow is a butterfly of dry, open grasslands on calcareous soils. In the northern part of its distribution range, it often occurs on the south-facing slopes of hills or mountains. Eggs are mostly laid on Horseshoe Vetch (Hippocrepis comosa), also on Crown Vetch (Coronilla varia). Hibernation takes place on the foodplant, or on the ground in the litter layer. For pupation the caterpillar attaches itself to a foodplant, turning into a pupa, suspended by a silken girdle. This species has two or three broods a year. The adult Berger’s Clouded Yellow and Pale Clouded Yellow are so similar that it 1s not possible to identify them with certainty, while this 1s easy for the caterpillars. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum old (3350) Large (66%) Maximum mM o ° : : : ? : fad 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 179 Colas alfacariensis (Pieridae) 2080 2050 180 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Gonepteryx rhamni (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Brimstone +X >. vy #& 6c Full dispersal No dispersal ecm AY fi SEDG -1084 (-5.26%) | -3228 (-15.67%) BAMBU -1593 (-7.73%) | -3440 (-16.7%) -1973 (-9.58%) | -4092 (-19.87%) SEDG -1165 (-5.66%) | -4835 (-23.47%) BAMBU | -2555 (-12.4%) | -7022 (-34.09%) GRAS -4146 (-20.13%) | -9486 (-46.05%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20599 cells) For many, the Brimstone is the first sign of spring. The butterflies hibernate in heaps of twigs or grass tussocks, and on any warm day, even in January, the males appear. The females, that are paler in colour, are seen a little later. The eggs are laid apart on the young branches and leaves of buckthorns (Rhamnus spp.). The caterpillars feed on the young leaves. They pupate, suspended from the underside of a twig or nerve of a leaf. In the summer, when the butterflies emerge, they do not mate but instead may become inactive for quite long periods before they hibernate. Courtship and mating do not take place until the spring. The Brimstone always has just one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.73). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 mM a a =) a = = Oe -& =a o= mH =f | £5 8 Oo. 4 of 7 28 a ng = a ger ae | See qf. = Zo wv x a Po] = 4 o 0 2000 4000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 181 Gonepteryx rhamni (Pieridae) 2080 2050 182 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Gonepteryx farinosa ZELLER, 1847 — Powdered Brimstone =o SEDG 334 (51.78%) -210 (-32.56%) BAMBU -27 (-4.19%) -369 (-57.21%) -144 (-22.33%) | -519 (-80.47%) © Heiner Ziegler Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 645 cells) The Powdered Brimstone larvae feed on the prickly Christ’s Thorne (Pahurus spina-christ) and on various buckthorns, such as Rhamnus alpinus, RB. sibthorpianus and R. hvioides. They are therefore often seen on bushy vegetation, namely in warm, dry places and on rocky slopes. However, in their search for nectar, they also fly in other places. It has one generation a year and, like other brimstones, hibernates as a butterfly. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe o2 MD Se on Ss oy ae 2a 2G 3 aH a4 O = = Do a 36 ze" ‘ td .- a 6 _ qe - Zo iw = am ‘0 = o rey 4000 0 od 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 odd 4000 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 183 Gonepteryx farinosa (Pieridae) 2080 2050 184 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Gonepteryx cleopatra (LINNAEUS, 1767) — Cleopatra .—hCcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -17 (-0.4%) -1417 (-33.35%) -31 (-0.73%) -1653 (-38.9%) -1013 (-23.84%) | -2621 (-61.69%) -1293 (-30.43%) | -3250 (-76.49%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4249 cells) The Cleopatra is found in light woodland, woodland edges and open bushy places. The males are easily recognized in flight by the orange patches on their forewings; the female looks very much like an ordinary brimstone. They are strong flyers that sometimes roam outside their breeding area. The eges are laid on the young leaves of various buckthorns, such as Buckthorn (Rhawnus catharticus), Mediterranean Buckthorn (R. a/aternus), and Alpine Buckthorn (R. a/pinus). The caterpillars feed on the leaves, and pupate on the twigs of the foodplant. The Cleopatra hibernates as an adult butterfly, and therefore can be seen flying for most of the year. Probably, it has only one generation a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o 7 {od todd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 185 Gonepteryx cleopatra (Pieridae) 2080 2050 186 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena phlaeas (LINNAEUS, 1761) — Small Copper eae -4048 (-16.93%) | -4602 (-19.25%) [ena cary [arene SEDG -5057 (-21.15%) | -6765 (-28.29%) BAMBU_ | -8526 (-35.66%) | -10086 (-42.18%) -11453 (-47.9%) | -13177 (-55.11%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 23910 cells) The Small Copper is a very common, widespread butterfly. It is found on all sorts of grasslands and heathlands, roadsides and along the banks of canals. The butterflies often visit flowers, and the males, perched on a tall blade of grass, defend their territory fiercely, flying out at other males of its sort. Eggs are laid on different species of acidic sorrels, mainly Common Sorrel (Rumex acetosa). This butterfly species overwinters as a caterpillar. In the north of its range, the Small Copper has two generations a year, whereas in the southern part, 1t may have three or four. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.65). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum A Minimum Swe 1.6 | a a =) a fe ee cfes o= mH =e £5 3 Oo 4 of 7 © hd o nq = i ger | ae qf. = 2 o aw x F Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Lycaena phlaeas (Lycaenidae) SEDG (B1) 187 GRAS (A1Fl) 188 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena helle ({ScCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Violet Copper .—hClcLe Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG 159 (6.52%) -563 (-23.08%) 229 (9.39%) -487 (-19.97%) Ta cra) | 686 (281399 SEDG -197 (-8.08%) | -1073 (-43.99%) BAMBU -36 (-1.48%) -968 (-39.69%) -466 (-19.11%) | -1201 (49.24%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2439 cells) The Violet Copper is a rare butterfly and often confined to very small sites (where it may occur in large numbers). It is found in swampy, wet grassland and rough vegetation bordering streams and lakes. In Central Europe, eggs are laid on the underside of the leaves of Bistort (Po/gonum bistorta). In the north of its range Viviparous Bistort (Po/gonum rivipara) 1s also used as larval foodplant. The young caterpillars eat the lower epidermis, thus making the characteristic “windows”. It passes the winter as a pupa. It has one, sometimes two, generations a year. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘0.6 | Qa a =) a >S 7 Pm Oe cfes o= mn :- 7 £5 3 Oo. 4 om 6 D> o 4 = a ger te | ae i=] @e- eo wo x é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 189 Lycaena helle (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 190 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena dispar (HAworTH, 1803) — Large Copper re ae 3583 (44.52%) | -1262 (-15.68%) ee 2980 (37.03%) | -1764 (-21.92%) SEDG 3656 (45.43%) | -2587 (-32.14%) BAMBU 4992 (62.03%) | -3071 (-38.16%) 4375 (54.36%) | -4188 (-52.04%) © Josef Settele Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8048 cells) The Large Copper occurs in marshy habitats, and on the peaty banks of lakes, rivers and streams, more to the East also on waste lands. Nectar plants are important for the females, which lay more eggs when there is more food available for them. Eggs are laid on large non-acidic sorrels (like Ramex crispus, R. obtusifolus, but never R. acetosa or R. acetosella). The young caterpillars first eat from the underside of the leaves, making the characteristic ‘windows’. Later caterpillars feed on the whole leaf. They hibernate when half-grown between withered leaves at the foot of the foodplant and are sometimes associated with ants (Myrmica rubra and Lasius niger). The Large Copper has several subspecies in Europe. The subspecies L. d. bataia has one generation a year, and the others two and sometimes even three. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh a a =) a i ee ef@eEs o= mH =f £5 8 Oo 4 of 7 fo cL a4 = a ger | ae a @e- 2 o wo x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gad Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 191 Lycaena dispar (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 192 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena virgaureae (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Scarce Copper .—CcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -780 (-5.26%) -2762 (-18.63%) BAMBU | -2665 (17.98%) | -3876 (-26.15%) -3078 (-20.77%) | -4622 (-31.18%) SEDG -2694 (-18.18%) | -6097 (-41.13%) BAMBU_ | -5416 (-36.54%) | -8571 (57.83%) -7216 (-48.68%) | -10671 (-71.99%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 14822 cells) It would be difficult to miss the beautiful and conspicuous Scarce Copper. The white patches on the underside of the hindwing distinguish 1t from other coppers. It prefers sheltered, flower-rich grassland in or near woods. The female visits a wide range of composites, especially Golden-rod (Soddago virgaureae) from where it gets its species name. The female lays her eggs at the base of the flowering stems of acidic sorrels like Ramex acetosa and R. acetosella. The eggs do not hatch until the following spring when the small caterpillars make a good meal of the new, fresh vegetation. It has one generation a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 193 Lycaena virgaureae (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 194 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena ottomana (LEFEBVRE, 1830) — Grecian Copper 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG 103 (21.78%) -182 (-38.48%) -54 (-11.42%) -346 (-73.15%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 473 cells) The Grecian Copper can be found in low, scrubby vegetation, maquis and woodland clearings and also occurs in dry and moist grassland at the bottom of valleys. It is the males that are usually seen; the females seem to live a more sheltered existence and are difficult to find. However, the males also take cover in trees if disturbed. They fly close to the ground. Sorrel, especially Sheep’s Sorrel (Ramex acetosella), 1s used as larval foodplant. This butterfly species has two generations a yeat. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 tH Qa a =) a ee Pe Oe a =a o= mH =e | £5 8 oOo. 4 Oe 5 fo a = = ba ger my = =! Qe 2 y w é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 195 Lycaena ottomana (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 196 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena tityrus (Popa, 1761) — Sooty Copper .—ClcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 119 (1.07%) -2721 (-24.36%) -636 (5.69%) | -3400 (-30.43%) -3278 (-29.34%) | -6816 (-61.01%) -4194 (-37.54%) | -8250 (-73.85%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 11172 cells) The Sooty Copper is found in a variety of habitats, damp and dry grassland, heathland, bogs, but also scrub and clearings in woodland, mostly in small numbers. Eggs are laid on sorrels (Rumen spp.), especially on Common Sorrel (R. acefosa). The caterpillar hibernates at the foot of the plant in any of the instars. They pupate in the litter layer. It has up to three generations a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 1.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 197 Lycaena tityrus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 198 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena alciphron (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) — Purple-shot Copper CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -503 (-5.52%) -2545 (-27.93%) BAMBU_ |_ -2988 (-32.79%) | -3855 (-42.3%) -2959 (-32.47%) | -4292 (-47.1%) SEDG -1861 (-20.42%) | -5247 (-57.58%) BAMBU_ | _ -4297 (-47.15%) | -6740 (-73.96%) -4303 (-47.22%) | -7612 (-83.53%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9113 cells) The Purple-shot Copper is found both in damp and dry places on many kinds of flower-rich grassland. Only the male has the beautiful purple sheen on the upperside of its wings. Eggs are laid on sorrels (Rumex spp.), mainly Common Sorrel (R. acefosa). This butterfly species hibernates as a fully-developed caterpillar in the egg, or in the first instar. The caterpillars are nocturnal. They pupate in the litter layer. It has one generation a year. It hibernates as a caterpillar outside the egg. Across Europe there are different subspecies. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 06 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 199 Lycaena akiphron (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 200 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena hippothoe (LINNAEus, 1761) — Purple-edged Copper AMBU | -6505 (-46.11%) | -8317 (-58.95%) -8606 (-61%) -9862 (-69.9%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 14109 cells) The Purple-edged Copper occurs on wet to damp grasslands, where the male butterflies attract the attention, perched on a tall grass or other plant, watching over their territory. The populations are mostly very local, but in a meadow, the butterflies can often be very numerous. The eggs are laid on various sorrels (Rwmex spp.). At first the small caterpillar only shaves off a few cell layers on the leaf surface, so making translucent “windows”, but later they feed on the whole leaf. The caterpillar hibernates when still small, and completes its growth 1n the spring, pupating in the litter layer. It has one brood a year. In southern part of its range the species has two generations and can be found on dry grasslands as well. The Purple-edged Copper has a few subspecies. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small ( (335%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 | a =] =) a es 7 ee a =o o= 0 =e £5 3 Oo. 4 of 7 D io a 4 ge Ba” = tH ie fe. - Zo w = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd d Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 201 Lycaena hippothoe (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 202 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena candens (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1844) — Balkan Copper 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 192 29.22%) -289 (-43.99%) BAMBU -161 (-24.51%) | -376 (57.23%) -75 (-11.42%) -414 (-63.01%) SEDG 70 (10.65%) -343 (-52.21%) BAMBU -391 (-59.51%) | -564 (-85.84%) -394 (-59.97%) | -624 (-94.98%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 657 cells) The Balkan Copper can be found in damp grassland, sub-alpine and alpine meadows, and in woodland clearings with a well-developed herb layer. Different sorrels (Rumex spp.), including Common Sorrel (R. acefosa) are used as larval foodplants. It has one generation a year. This butterfly looks very like the Purple-edged Copper (Lycaena hippothoe), and used to be classified as a subspecies of it. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000) 0.6 Minimum Swe Swe a) 0.6 1.0 O02 1.0 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 203 Lycaena candens (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 204 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lycaena thersamon (Esper, 1784) — Lesser Fiery Copper SEDG 1838 (40.44%) | -1584 (-34.85%) 1632 (35.91%) | -1421 (-31.27%) a 2941 (64.71%) | -757 (-16.66%) SEDG 2058 (45.28%) | -3651 (-80.33%) BAMBU 574 (12.63%) | -3143 (-69.15%) [oras | 2327 (51.2%) | -1739 (-38.26%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4545 cells) The Lesser Fiery Copper is mostly found on dry, flower-rich grasslands, both on calcareous and acid soils. They are also seen on waste land, very open scrub and rocky slopes. The butterflies are often seen drinking from the flowers of Danewort (Sambucus ebulus). Its most important larval foodplant is Knotgrass (Polygonum aviculare), although other Polygonaceae species are perhaps also used. The caterpillars feed on both the flowers and the leaves. This butterfly species hibernates as a caterpillar and has several generations a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.93). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Lycaena thersamon (Lycaenidae) 205 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 206 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Thecla betulae (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Brown Hairstreak SEDG -2243 (-17.38%) | -3619 (-28.04%) BAMBU_ | -1298 (-10.06%) | -3214 (-24.9%) -2925 (-22.66%) | -4462 (-34.57%) SEDG -3697 (-28.64%) | -5889 (-45.62%) BAMBU_ | -3110 (-24.09%) | -6912 (-53.55%) -5029 (-38.96%) | -9532 (-73.85%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12908 cells) The Brown Hairstreak occurs in scrub, along woodbanks at the edge of deciduous woodland, and in parks, but the butterfly is rarely seen. However, the eggs that are laid at the base of the buds of various Prunus species ate easy to find. In the winter the pearly-white eggs show up on the bare twigs of the shrubs or trees. The egg, thus, hibernates, hatching in the spring. The small caterpillar bores its way into a bud, hollowing it out, later on also eating the leaves of Blackthorn (Prunus spinosa), but also cultivated species of Prunus, such as plum and cherry trees. The caterpillars are visited by ants of the genera Lasius and Formica. They pupate in the shrub layer under the tree serving as foodplant. This butterfly species is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.79). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum m o 2 ; : : ? dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 207 Thecla betulae (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 208 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Favonius quercus (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Purple Hairstreak rea [Rea -3105 (-22.36%) | -4170 (-30.03%) SEDG -4962 (-35.73%) | -5822 (-41.93%) BAMBU_ | -6242 (-44.95%) | -7466 (-53.77%) -7703 (-55.47%) | -9184 (-66.14%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13886 cells) The Purple Hairstreak is only found around oaks, its only foodplant. Although the butterflies need food, they do not visit flowers. Instead, they remain near the tree, looking for leaves with a layer of honeydew left behind by aphids. This sugary secretion is the butterflies’ most important source of energy. The eggs are laid at the base of the buds. The small caterpillar has developed by the time winter comes, but it remains in the egg, emerging in the spring to feed on the buds and also on the flowers of the oak. It does not eat the leaves and is sometimes visited by ants of the genus Lasius. When mature, the caterpillars leave the foodplant, and pupate in the moss layer. The Purple Hairstreak has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ce Minimum Swe 1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 0.2 0.6 Swe o2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 209 Fiavonius quercus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 210 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Laeosopis roboris (EsPER, 1793) — Spanish Purple Hairstreak .—CcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -912 (-22.66%) -2173 (-54%) -1551 (-38.54%) | -2621 (-65.13%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4024 cells) The Spanish Purple Hairstreak occurs in damp, deciduous woods, on rough vegetation beside streams and rivers, and in parkland. The butterflies spend most of their time in the top of ash trees, the larval foodplant, and are difficult to see. The female lays her eggs on Ash (Fraxinus excelsior) and other species of Fraxinus, and possibly also Common Privet (Ligustrum vulgare). The eggs remain on the tree for the rest of the summer, autumn and winter. The small caterpillars that emerge in the spring, feed on the flowers and new leaves of the foodplants. They are visited by ants of the genus Lasius. Vhey pupate among the leaf litter. This species has one brood a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum fad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000) 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 o2 Swe 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 211 Laeosopis roboris (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 212 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Tomares ballus (Fasrictus, 1787) — Provence Hairstreak .—CcLee Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -285 (-71.79%) -309 (-77.83%) BAMBU -296 (-74.56%) | -315 (-79.35%) -316 (-79.6%) -341 (-85.89%) SEDG -309 (-77.83%) | -358 (-90.18%) BAMBU -340 (-85.64%) -368 (-92.7%) -386 (-97.23%) | -394 (-99.24%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 397 cells) The Provence Hairstreak can be found on abandoned agricultural land, especially on calcareous soils, in abandoned vineyards and bushy areas. Various leguminous plants are used as larval foodplant, including Bladder Vetch (Authylis tetraphylla), Dorycnium hirsutum, Vberian Milk-vetch (Astragalus lusitanicus), Hairy Medick (Medicago polymorpha), Black Medick (M. 4upukina) and birdsfoot- trefoils (Lo/us spp.). The female deposits her eggs singly on the unopened leaves. The caterpillars are sometimes attended by ants (e.g. Plagolepis pygmaea). This species has one generation a year, and passes the winter as a pupa in the soil. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = mm a a = Ow =o ee] co Oo S : P - : mH o 2 Ow $0 LP) ™ o fad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 Gad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.8 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Tomares ballus (Lycaenidae) 2080 SEDG 213 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 214 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Callophrys rubi (Linnakus, 1758) — Green Hairstreak [rear | Neamt -4049 (-18.94%) | -4842 (-22.65%) SEDG -4212 (-19.7%) | -5250 (-24.56%) BAMBU_ | -7570 (-35.41%) | -8595 (-40.2%) -10212 (-47.76%) | -11497 (-53.77%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 21380 cells) The Green Hairstreak can be found on poor grassland, heathland and at the edges of bogs and marshes. The butterflies like resting in trees and shrubs, such as Alder Buckthorn (frangula alnus), where they are well hidden by their green colour. However, a sharp tap on a branch brings tens of them out into the air. The Green Hairstreak is extremely polyphagous. The eggs are laid on a variety of plants, including Heather (Eva spp.), rockroses (Hedanthemum spp.), and Alder Buckthorn (Frangula alnus), \eguminous plants and species of Rosaceae. The caterpillars feed on the buds, flowers and young leaves. They pupate in the litter layer and the pupa hibernates. The Green Hairstreak is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.63). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a Minimum Swe 06 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) td o S ze o m o ot 4000 0 ns 4000 0 yh 4000 0 ae 4000 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Callophrys rubi (Lycaenidae) vi SEDG (B1) 215 GRAS (A1Fl) 216 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Callophrys avis CHAPMAN, 1909 — Chapman’s Green Hairstreak CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -283 (-65.36%) -386 (-89.15%) BAMBU -320 (-73.9%) -378 (-87.3%) -275 (-63.51%) | -390 (-90.07%) SEDG -294. (-67.9%) -408 (-94.23%) BAMBU -303 (-69.98%) | -415 (-95.84%) -243 (-56.12%) | -425 (-98.15%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 433 cells) Chapman’s Green Hairstreak is mostly found in woods and scrubs where the Strawberry Tree (Arbutus unedo) grows. The female chooses the young leaves of the older, larger bushes on which to lay her eggs. Conaria myrtifola and the broom Cytsus malacitanus ssp. catalaunicus have also been named as foodplants. It pupates on the ground at the foot of the foodplant. It is single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum aad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Callophrys avis (Lycaenidae) 2080 SEDG 217 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 218 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrium w-album (KNocu, 1782) — White-letter Hairstreak SEDG -1917 (-17.27%) | -2641 (-23.79%) -2141 (-19.28%) | -2955 (-26.61%) ee -2827 (-25.46%) | -3629 (-32.68%) SEDG -4836 (-43.56%) | -5477 (-49.33%) BAMBU_ | _ -5644 (-50.83%) | -6698 (-60.33%) -7380 (-66.47%) | -8657 (-77.97%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 11103 cells) The White-letter Hairstreak usually occurs where there is a group of elm (U/mus spp.) trees, either growing 1n a wood, or apart, sometimes even in the centre of a large town. However, there are populations known that occupy a solitary tree. The eggs are laid on the wood at the base of the flower buds, the female favouring terminal buds situated at the top of the tree. The small caterpillar stays inside the egg during the winter months, emerging in the spring, boring its way into a flowerbud. It feeds on flowerbuds and flowers, but not on leaves. A non-flowering tree is therefore not a suitable foodplant. The caterpillars are sometimes visited by ants of the genus Lasius and Formica and pupate in the litter layer under the tree. The White-Letter Hairstreak has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o o ck 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 219 Satyrium w-album (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 220 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrium pruni (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Black Hairstreak .6—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -289 (-2.36%) -3101 (-25.27%) BAMBU 1089 (8.88%) -22.45 (-18.3%) -404 (-3.29%) | -3596 (-29.31%) SEDG -255 (-2.08%) | -4671 (-38.07%) BAMBU -702 (5.72%) | -6066 (-49.44%) -2244 (-18.29%) | -7988 (-65.1%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12270 cells) The Black Hairstreak can be found where there are Blackthorn (Prunus spinosa) bushes growing. This may be in moderately dry woodland, or in a hedgerow, or on a woodbank, but it also occurs on solitary groups of Blackthorn bushes. Places with brambles are favorable, providing the nectar the butterflies need. The eggs are laid on Blackthorn (Prunus spinosa), but sometimes other Prunus species are used. The female chooses twigs that will flower the next spring. The small caterpillars that develop, pass the winter in the eggshell. When they emerge, they feed on the buds and flowers. When the caterpillars are fully-grown, they pupate. The black and white pupa, suspended in a silken girdle from a twig, looks very like a bird dropping, an attempt to avoid predation. The Black Hairstreak is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o fad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe O06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 221 Satyrium pruni (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 222 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrium spini (FasrRicius, 1787) — Blue-spot Hairstreak .—hCcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -1547 (-18.11%) | -3552 (-41.59%) -2078 (-24.33%) | -3494 (-40.91%) reras | sce | 2seacavame SEDG -1885 (-22.07%) | -6706 (-78.52%) BAMBU -2494 (-29.2%) | -5899 (-69.07%) -695 (-8.14%) | -4290 (-50.23%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8540 cells) The Blue-spot Hairstreak can be found in sunny, warm places, on groups of bushes, or on scrub at the edge of a wood, with some flowering vegetation as nectar source nearby. The female lays her eggs on various buckthorns (Rhamnus spp.), choosing branches situated in the sun. The small caterpillar only emerges in the spring, having passed the winter in the eggshell. It wastes no time in beginning to eat buds and young leaves. Ants of the genera Lasius and Formica may visit the caterpillar. When fully-grown, it pupates on the foodplant, the pupa suspended by a silken girdle. The Blue-spot Hairstreak has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.71). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 sh a a =) a eee ee a | o= mH = | £5 3 Go. 4 os 6 28 a a4 = a ger | ae i=] @e- 2 o aw * é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 223 Satyrium spini (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 224 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrium ilicis (EsPER, 1779) — Ilex Hairstreak .—hCcLwee Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -164 (-1.51%) -2441 (-22.49%) -613 (5.65%) | -2924 (-26.93%) -3154 (-29.05%) | -5618 (51.75%) -4333 (-39.91%) | -7136 (65.73%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 10856 cells) The Ilex Hairstreak occurs locally at woodland edges, and in coppices with warm, dry oak scrub. The female lays her eggs on the rather stunted oak trees, and certainly not on large oaks. The tiny caterpillar hibernates in the egg, or 1n the first larval instar. It feeds on the young oak leaves, eventually pupating in the litter layer under the foodplant. The caterpillars have been found in association with ants of the genera Camponotus and Crematogaster. The adult butterflies need nectar, feeding on flowering Common Privet (Ligustrum vulgare) and on bramble blossom (Rubus spp.). It is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.71). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 10 0.2 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe O 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 odd 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 225 Satyrium iliis (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 226 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrium esculi (HUBNER, 1804) — False Hex Hairstreak a -1549 (51.46%) | -2151 (-71.46%) SEDG -1726 (-57.34%) | -2448 (-81.33%) BAMBU_ | -2208 (-73.36%) | -2811 (93.39%) -2014 (-66.91%) -2998 (-99.6%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3010 cells) The False Ilex Hairstreak can be found in dry scrub, open, deciduous woodland, or in mixed woodland. The butterflies can often be seen drinking nectar on thyme. The females lay their eggs on various oak species, including the Holm Oak (Quercus ikx), Common or Pedunculate Oak (2. robur), Kermes or Holly Oak (Q. coccsfera), and Pyrenean Oak (Q. pyrenaica). The small caterpillars only emerge from the egg the following spring, when they start eating the young oak leaves. The ant Camponotus cruentatus has been found in association with them. This species has one brood a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 fed 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 227 Satyrium esiuli (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 228 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrium acactae (Fasricius, 1787) — Sloe Hairstreak Cc Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 1205 (15.48%) -2303 (-29.59%) -492 (-6.32%) | -2953 (-37.94%) -1287 (-16.53%) | -5311 (-68.23%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 7784 cells) The Sloe Hairstreak is found in dry scrub in woods, at wood margins, or in the open landscape. They are also seen in abandoned vineyards on calcareous soils. When looking for nectar, the butterflies seem to prefer white flowers. Blackthorn or Sloe (Prunus spinosa) is practically the only foodplant of the Sloe Hairstreak, and eggs are laid on branches that are in the sun. The small caterpillars stay in the ege until after the winter, emerging in the spring and feeding on the young Blackthorn leaves. When fully-grown, they leave the foodplant to pupate on the ground in leaf litter. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘0.6 | a a =) 2 i Pe Oe ae =a o= mH =e £5 8 Oo 4 ow 6 D> a mG = a ger ee | ae = Qe 2 y wv x é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 229 Satyrium acaciae (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 230 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lampides boeticus (LINNAEUS, 1767) — Long-tailed Blue aaa 815 (12.77%) | -1156 (-18.12%) amas | mon [ci SEDG -722 (-11.31%) | -3666 (-57.45%) BAMBU 10 (0.16%) -2770 (-43.41%) 885 (13.87%) | -1663 (-26.06%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 638 1cells) The underside of the wings of the Long-tailed Blue have an attractive pattern of fine, wavy lines and two striking eye-spots near the rather long little tails on the hindwings. The habitats are typified by the presence of many kinds of leguminous plants that serve as foodplants, and plenty of nectar- rich flowers for the butterflies. The habitats are warm, dry places, sometimes in agricultural areas. The main foodplant is Bladder Senna (Co/utea arborescens). The caterpillars feed on the ripening seeds and on farms where peas and beans are grown, they can cause outbreaks. In natural situations, the caterpillars are attended by various ant species. The life cycle of the Long-tailed Blue takes four to six weeks. It does not go into hibernation, and can therefore only occur as a resident where it 1s warm enough for all stages to survive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ted 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 231 Lampides boeticus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 232 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Cacyreus marshalli (BUTLER, 1898) — Geranium Bronze .—hCcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -207 (-25.87%) -437 (-54.62%) -277 (-34.62%) -464 (58%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 800) Originally a species from southern Africa, the Geranium Bronze had probably been imported on Pelargonium cultivars, the ordinary or garden geraniums. From there out, because of the large popularity of these plants, it occurs e.g. in Spain and France, but is about to colonize larger parts of Europe, using the Pe/argonium culttvars as foodplant. The caterpillars mostly eat the flowers and buds of Pelargonium, but also the rest of the plants. In South Africa, the Geranium Bronze uses wild Geranium species as foodplant, making it very probable that this butterfly will establish itself in the wild in warm parts of Europe. However, in cooler areas, it would be impossible for it to settle permanently, because it has no diapause, and could not survive the winter. It has numerous generations a year, depending on the temperature. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Ow | w is} oO Ps : : : : P : ; ah o = w o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 233 Cacyreus marshal (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 234 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Leptotes pirithous (LINNAEUS, 1767) — Lang’s Short-tailed Blue a 654 (11.95%) | -1120 (-20.46%) SEDG 800 (14.61%) | -1775 (-32.42%) BAMBU -30 (-0.55%) -2922 (-53.37%) 838 (15.31%) -3855 (-70.41%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5475) The Lang’s Short-tailed Blue is a small, inconspicuous butterfly that occurs in flower-rich places and on rough vegetation. It is often seen near scrub and on fields of Lucerne (Medicago sativa). The eggs are laid on various leguminous plants, such as melilots (Medhius spp.), Purple Loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria), and also species of Rosaceae and Plumbaginaeceae. The caterpillar feeds on the flowers and seeds of the foodplant and has been found in association with ants of the genus Laszus. The life cycle of the Lang’s Short-tatled Blue takes four to eight weeks, depending on the temperature. It is not known whether this species enters diapause, but 1f 1t does, it should be either in the egg or caterpillar stage. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 235 Leptotes pirithous (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 236 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Zizeeria knysna (TRIMEN, 1862) — African Grass Blue .—ClcLee Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -528 (-64.23%) -582 (-70.8%) BAMBU -619 (-75.3%) -643 (-78.22%) -619 (-75.3%) -666 (-81.02%) SEDG -575 (-69.95%) | -708 (-86.13%) BAMBU -759 (-92.34%) | -797 (-96.96%) 711 (265% | 215 e9915%9 © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 822) The African Grass Blue is a modest little blue, which flies close to the ground. It is a species of dry erassland, road verges, waste ground, and gardens, but sometimes butterflies are found in damp, shady places. Various medicks, are used as foodplant, such as Lucerne (Medicago sativa), Tree Medick (M. arborea), Small Medick (M. minima), Black Medick (M. /upulna), and possibly various Oxals species. The caterpillars are attended by ants of the genus Phezdok. The African Grass Blue has two of more generations a year and passes the winter as a caterpillar. There are only a few butterflies in the first generation. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 237 Zizeeria knysna (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 238 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Cupido minimus (FuEssty, 1775) — Small Blue ae ae -2256 (-16.79%) | -3275 (-24.37%) SEDG -4157 (-30.94%) | -5451 (-40.57%) BAMBU_ | -4491 (-33.42%) | -6672 (-49.65%) -6299 (-46.88%) | -8702 (-64.76%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13437) This butterfly is well named. It is very small and its modest colours make it even seem smaller than it really is. The Small Blue can only be found on calcareous soils. Open, mostly rather short vegetation and a warm microclimate typify its habitat. The butterflies may occur in large numbers. They lay their small, white eggs singly between the flowers and the sepals of Kidney-vetch (Authylis vulneraria), where a practised eye can detect them. The creamy-white caterpillars feed on the flowers and seeds, and are seldom seen. However, workers of various ant species attend them regularly. When fully-grown, the caterpillars hibernate either between the withered petals of dead flowers, or in the litter layer and pupate on the ground. The Small Blue has one or two broods a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.71). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 0.2 Swe 06 o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 239 Cupido minimus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 240 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Cupido osiris (MEIGEN, 1829) — Osiris Blue .—hCcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -470 (-42.11%) | -810 (-72.58%) BAMBU -506 (-45.34%) -847 (-75.9%) -566 (-50.72%) | -961 (-86.11%) SEDG -154 (-13.8%) | -1003 (-89.87%) BAMBU_ | -427 (-38.26%) | -1039 (-93.1%) -373 (-33.42%) | -1101 (-98.66%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1116) The Osiris Blue lives on sunny, flower-rich grassland and road verges rich in sainfoin (Oxobrychis spp.), which it uses for its nectar and as foodplant. The caterpillar feeds on various sainfoins (Onobrychis spp.), such as Sainfoin (O. vzzfola), Mountain Sainfoin (O. ~ontana), and O. arenaria. In the literature, other leguminous plants are mentioned, e.g. Bladder Senna (Co/tea arborescens), Kidney- vetch (Authylhs vulneraria), and Bitter Vetch (Lathyrus montanus). The eggs are laid on the flowerheads. The caterpillars feed on both the flowers and developing seeds and are attended by ants (e.g, Laszus alienus). Vhe Osiris Blue has one or two broods a year, but the second may only be partial. The caterpillars hibernate and pupate between leaves. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o taad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 241 Cupido osiris (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 242 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Cupido argiades (PA.LAs, 1771) — Short-tailed Blue .6—hCcLUwE Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 1445 (9.62%) -1822 (-12.13%) BAMBU 1387 (9.23%) | -2139 (-14.24%) 746 (4.96%) -2692 (-17.92%) SEDG 1257 (8.37%) | -3979 (-26.48%) BAMBU 1482 9.86%) | -5685 (-37.83%) 626 (4.17%) -7883 (-52.46%) © Josef Settele Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 15026) Although the Short-tailed Blue looks rather like the Holly Blue (Ce/astrina argiolus), it has very fine, small tails and prominent eye-spots on the hindwings. The Short-tatled Blue occurs in local populations on damp grassland, heathland and flower-rich verges. It lays its eggs on Lucerne (Medicago satina) and various clovers (Ijfokum spp.), vetches (Via spp.), birdsfoot-trefoils (Lo/us spp.) and melilots (Meklotus spp.). When the caterpillars are fully-erown, they leave the foodplant, overwinter, and then pupate in the litter layer. This butterfly species has two to three generations a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 sir; o = E ; : ~ : _ ah o 2 wv o sc o ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 243 Cupido argiades (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 244 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Cupido decoloratus (STAUDINGER, 1886) — Eastern Short-tailed Blue 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Hee SEDG ESOL IO YO} -940 (-46.08%) -308 (-15.1%) | -1568 (-76.86%) -933 (-45.74%) | -2007 (-98.38%) -879 (-43.09%) | -2031 (-99.56%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2040) The Eastern Short-tailed Blue occurs in clearings in deciduous woodland, and on flower-rich, grassy vegetation with scattered bushes. The caterpillars feed on the flowerheads of Black Medick (Medicago lupulina), and Lucerne (M. sativa). The Eastern Short-tatled Blue has three generations a year and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.93). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 Gadd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Cupido decoloratus (Lycaenidae) 245 246 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Cupido alcetas (HOFFMANSEGG, 1804) — Provencal Short-tailed Blue .—hCcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 321 (14.54%) -714 (-32.34%) BAMBU 796 (36.05%) -717 (-32.47%) 473 (21.42%) -933 (-42.26%) SEDG 1589 (71.97%) | -1036 (-46.92%) BAMBU 1782 (80.71%) | -1328 (-60.14%) —foras | 1325 (60.01%) -1785 (-80.84%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2208) The Provencal Short-tatled Blue occurs in woodland clearings, at the edges of woods, on grassy vegetation near bushes, and along the banks of streams and edges of ditches. Goat’s-rue (Gakga officinals) and Crown Vetch (Coronilla varia) are its most important foodplants, but other leguminous plants, such as Common Birdsfoot-trefoil (Lots cornuulatus), Common Vetch (Via sativa), and Lucerne (Mediago sativa) are also used. The caterpillars feed mostly on the flowers, but also on the leaves, and are attended by ants (e.g. of the genus Formica). This butterfly species has two to three generations a year and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) he o =I ze o ™ o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 247 Cupido alcetas (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 248 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Celastrina argiolus (LINNAEUus, 1758) — Holly Blue a -2795 (-13.69%) | -4341 (-21.26%) SEDG -2427 (-11.88%) | -4943 (-24.2%) BAMBU_ | -5101 (-24.98%) | -7524 (-36.84%) -6682 (-32.72%) | -10036 (-49.14%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20422) The Holly Blue is widespread, although the populations are always small. This small butterfly is very often seen in parks and gardens, as well as at woodland edges, and in bushy places. The eggs are laid on the calyx or stem of the flowerbuds or on the ripe fruits of various sorts of plants, including Holly dx aquifolium), \Wwy (Hedera hehx), Spindle-tree (Evonymus europaeus), Alder Buckthorn (Frangula alnus), brambles (Rubus spp.) and heathers (Cal/una vularis and Erica spp.). At first, the caterpillars feed on the buds and fruits of the foodplant, only later eating leaves. They are attended by ants of different genera. The Holly Blue has two broods a year, and hibernates in the pupal stage. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.66). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh a 0 = Ow =a te] sity a e = : = = 7 ; ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Celastrina argiolus (Lycaenidae) 249 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 250 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Scolitantides baton (BERGSTRASSER, 1779) — Baton Blue ee SEDG -81 (-3.06%) -1179 (-44.61%) BAMBU -88 (-3.33%) -1433 (-54.22%) -847 (-32.05%) | -2209 (-83.58%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2643) The Baton Blue can be found on dry, grassy, and flower-rich vegetation, especially on warm patches. The butterflies are often seen on flowers, drinking nectar. The females lay their eggs on the flowers and leaf stalks of various species of thyme (I/ymus spp.), savory (Satureja spp.), lavender (Lavandula spp.), and mint (Mentha spp.). The caterpillars feed on the flowers and developing seeds of the foodplant. They are attended by ants (e.g. Myrmica scabrinodis and Lasius alenus). The Baton Blue passes the winter as a caterpillar or a pupa, and has two generations a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 251 Scolitantides baton (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 252 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Scolitantides vicrama (Moore, 1865) SEDG 2985 (55.35%) -353 (-6.55%) BAMBU 383 (7.1%) -1599 (-29.65%) 1968 (36.49%) | -962 (-17.84%) SEDG 2198 (40.76%) | -1457 (-27.02%) 309 (5.73%) -2974 (-55.15%) a 2622 (48.62%) | -3135 (-58.13%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5393) This blue ts found on dry grassland on sandy or stony soils, south-facing slopes with grassy vegetation, on steep slopes, in rocky gullies, on railway embankments, on road verges and in scrub. Various sorts of thyme (I/ymus spp.) and savory (Sa/ureja spp.) are used as foodplant, the eggs being mostly laid on the flowerheads. The caterpillars feed on the flowers and ripening seeds, and are often found with ants (e.g. Myrmica sabulen). This butterfly species is double-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 253 Scolitantides vicrama (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 254 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Scolitantides abencerragus (PIERRET, 1837) — False Baton Blue 6c Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG -567 (-21.16%) -1068 (-39.87%) -1287 (-48.04%) | -1366 (-50.99%) GRAS | -1074 (-40.09%) | -1454 (54.27%) -2301 (-85.89%) | -2392 (-89.29%) -2531 (-94.48%) | -2614 (-97.57%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2679) The False Baton Blue is restricted to the Iberian Peninsula and 1s found in stony areas with flower- rich vegetation and scrub. Different plants are given in the literature, such as Thyme (Thymus vuleans), Green Heather (Eva scoparia), and the labiate annual Chonia lusitanica. It is on the leaves of Choma /usitanica that the female lays her eggs, although the caterpillars feed on the flowers. The False Baton Blue hibernates as a caterpillar, and is single-brooded in Europe. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 o2 Swe 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 255 Scolitantides abencerragus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 256 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Scolitantides bavius (EVERSMANN, 1832) — Bavius Blue = SEDG 142 (33.18%) -170 (-39.72%) BAMBU 36 (8.41%) -182 (-42.52%) rarras% | 210 asa SEDG 307 (71.73%) -230 (53.74%) BAMBU -124 (-28.97%) | -331 (-77.34%) -70 (-16.36%) -406 (-94.86%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 428) The Bavius Blue occurs often on flower-rich, dry grassland, on dry, stony slopes, and on open patches in shrub and in vineyards on calcareous soil. Various species of Sa/za are used as foodplant, including Sage (S. officinals), S. nutans, S. verbenaca, and Whorled Clary (S. vertici/lata). The caterpillars feed mostly on the flowers, but sometimes also on the leaves. They are frequently found with ants. The Bavius Blue 1s single-brooded. The pupa overwinters. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 H fh. 1.0 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 a 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 257 Scolitantides bavius (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 258 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Scolitantides orion (PALLAS, 1771) — Chequered Blue .—ClcLe Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -24 (-0.38%) -1835 (-29.27%) 291 canson | 2668 (a2.% |GRAS | -1532 (-24.43%) | -2699 (-43.05%) SEDG -1446 (-23.06%) | -3844 (-61.31%) BAMBU_ | -2659 (-42.41%) | -4917 (-78.42%) ews 42.25%) | S827 CRASH © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6270) The Chequered Blue, a small but conspicuous butterfly, can be seen on warm, and rocky slopes and narrow ledges, where there 1s little vegetation, apart from its foodplants White Stonecrop (Sedum album) and Orpine (Sedum telephium).’The females lay their eggs on the leaves of the foodplant near the stem. The caterpillars are often found with different ants. The pupa overwinters, and is often hidden under stones or in small hollows in the ground near the foodplant. The Chequered Blue produces one or two generations a year, depending on its geographical position. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 259 Scolitantides orion (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 260 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Scolitantides panoptes (HUBNER, 1813) — Panoptes Blue SEDG -867 (-58.07%) | -971 (-65.04%) -1124 (-75.28%) | -1130 (-75.69%) a -1146 (-76.76%) | -1207 (-80.84%) SEDG -1324 (-88.68%) | -1344 (-90.02%) BAMBU -1493 (-100%) -1493 (-100%) -1493 (-100%) -1493 (-100%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1493) At present the species is widespread in the Iberian Peninsula. It lives on dry grasslands between 200 and 1900m elevation. The caterpillars are visited by ants of the genus Camponotus. The species has two generations and one can find adults on the wing from March until August. Larval foodplants ate Thymus and Saturja species. The taxonomic status (whether subspecies of S. baton or a separate species) is under discussion. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.87). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum toad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Aad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Scolitantides panoptes (Lycaenidae) 2080 SEDG 261 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 262 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Glaucopsyche alexis (Popa, 1761) — Green-underside Blue -1448 (-9.24%) -2065 (-13.17%) AMBU 1588 (10.13%) | -5095 (-32.5%) 1591 (10.15%) | -6785 (-43.28%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 15676) The Green-underside Blue is a pretty sight on both dry and damp flower-rich grassy vegetation, such as meadows and woodland clearings. The females lay their eggs between the flowers of different leguminous plants, including Sainfoin (Oxobrychis vatfola), brooms (Cylisus spp.), vetches (Via spp.), Crown Vetch (Coronilla varia), Genista spp., and melilots (Med/oius spp.). The caterpillars feed on the leaves and are frequently attended by the workers of various ants. Hibernation takes place as a pupa. The Green-underside Blue is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.7). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 0.2 06 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 263 Glaucopsyche alexis (Lycaenidae) WE 4% ahs “4 2080 2050 264 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Glaucopsyche melanops (BotsDUVAL, 1828) — Black-eyed Blue .—ClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal | SEDG -720 (-20.13%) -2069 (-57.84%) AMBU_ | -1708 (-47.75%) | -2238 (-62.57%) a -1333 (-37.27%) -2464 (-68.88%) SEDG -1767 (-49.4%) | -2884 (-80.63%) = B AMBU | -2319 (-64.83%) | -3287 (-91.89%) r -2032 (-56.81%) | -3524 (-98.52%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3577) The Black-eyed Blue occurs in open shrub, or open woodland, especially where Genisia or large bushes of broom (Cyésus spp.) ate growing. Eggs are laid on the flowers of various leguminous plants, such as Dorycnium spp., Birdsfoot-trefoils (Lotus spp.), Anthylis spp., brooms (Cylisus spp.) and Genista spp.. The caterpillars feed on the flowers and are attended by ants of the genus Camponotus. The Black-eyed Blue hibernates in the pupal stage. It usually has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 10 02 Swe 6 1002 O86 16 10 | | oOo Swe 06 Annual precipitation range 1d 02 06 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 L=] 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 265 Glaucopsyche melanops (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 266 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Tolana iolas (OCHSENHEIMER, 1816) — Iolas Blue .6—hCcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -102 (-3.08%) -1371 (-41.46%) BAMBU_ | -1610 (-48.68%) | -1909 (-57.73%) -974 (-29.45%) | -1849 (-55.91%) SEDG -1564 (-47.29%) | -2149 (-64.98%) BAMBU_ | -2625 (-79.38%) | -2938 (-88.84%) -2596 (-78.5%) | -3186 (-96.34%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3307) The Iolas Blue is Europe’s largest blue. It occurs locally on calcareous soil, where shrubs of its foodplant Bladder Senna (Colutea arborescens) are growing. In Greece, C. cicica is also used. This plant is practically the most important source of nectar for the butterflies. At times, the males can be seen some distance away from their habitat, but the females stay near the foodplants. They lay their eggs, usually several at a time, on the inside of the calyx and inside the bladder-like fruits. The caterpillars feed on the seeds and are visited frequently by ants (e.g. Tapinoma erraticum and Camponotus cruentatus). Usually, they can easily be seen by holding a pod up to the light. When fully-grown, the caterpillars pupate at the foot of the foodplant, passing the winter as a pupa. The Iolas Blue mostly has only one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 267 Tolana iolas (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 268 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Phengaris arion (L1NNAEus, 1758) — Large Blue -2206 (-16.66%) | -4172 (-31.51%) SEDG -1865 (-14.08%) | -5421 (-40.94%) BAMBU_ | -1732 (-13.08%) | -6599 (-49.83%) -3006 (-22.7%) -8692 (-65.64%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13242) The Large Blue occurs locally on dry, open grasslands on limestone. It is one of the larger, more conspicuous blues. The females lay their eggs on Marjoram (Onganum vuleare) and different species of thyme (T/ymus spp.). The caterpillars feed on the buds and flowers of the foodplant until they reach the last larval instar. They then leave their foodplant, and allow themselves to be taken by workers of Myrmica sabukti, and sometimes of M. scabrinodis, to the ants’ nest. The caterpillars feed on the ant grubs, hibernating and pupating in ants’ nests as well. This species is listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh = a = Ow =a i] is} Oo : : ; : ; ‘ — : dd 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 269 Phengaris arion (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 270 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Phengaris teleius (BERGSTRASSER, 1779) — Scarce Large Blue .—ClcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -35 (-0.54%) -2184 (-33.69%) BAMBU -551 (-8.5%) -2612 (-40.29%) -1537 (-23.71%) | -3224 (-49.73%) SEDG -1008 (-15.55%) | -3984 (61.45%) BAMBU_ | -1587 (-24.48%) | -4723 (-72.85%) -2476 (-38.19%) | -5731 (-88.4%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6483) The Scarce Large Blue can be found in moderately nutrient-rich meadows where its foodplant Great Burnet (Sangusorba offiinals) 1s growing. In northern Europe, it occurs in open, short vegetation, but in the warm, southern parts, it is also found in rough vegetation. The butterflies tend to keep near the foodplants. The small caterpillars only feed on the flowerheads for two or three weeks. They then go down to the ground where they wait to be picked up by worker ants of the genus Myrmica and carried off to the ants’ nest. There they feed on ant grubs. The caterpillars also hibernate and pupate in the ants’ nest. The species of host ant varies in different parts of its range. The Scarce Large Blue is single-brooded. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 1.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 271 Phengaris teleius (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 272 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Phengaris nausithous (BERGSTRASSER, 1779) — Dusky Large Blue .—hCcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -830 (-22.93%) -1999 (-55.24%) BAMBU -699 (-19.31%) | -1960 (54.16%) -1451 (-40.09%) | -2501 (-69.11%) SEDG -789 (-21.8%) | -2643 (-73.03%) BAMBU_ | -1716 (-47.42%) | -3061 (-84.58%) -2334 (-64.49%) | -3460 (-95.61%) © Josef Settele Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3619) The Dusky Large Blue occurs on damp, moderately nutrient-rich grassland and rough vegetation. The butterflies are usually found on or near the foodplant Great Burnet (Sanguisorba officinals). Having lived on the flowerheads of this plant for a few weeks, the small caterpillars go down to the ground, in order to be carried away by workers of the ant Myrmica rubra to an ant nest. There, they remain feeding on ant grubs, hibernating and pupating in the early summer. The newly-emerged butterflies leave the nest. The Dusky Large Blue is one of the most specialized of the “ant blues” being most adapted to one species of host ant. It is single-brooded. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘1.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 273 Phengaris nausithous (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 274 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Phengaris alcon ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Alcon Blue SEDG -800 (-12.04%) | -2001 (-30.12%) BAMBU 375 (5.65%) -1448 (-21.8%) -1388 (-20.89%) | -2689 (-40.48%) SEDG -741 (-11.15%) | -2794 (-42.06%) BAMBU_ | -1062 (-15.99%) | -3525 (-53.06%) -2097 (-31.57%) | -4883 (-73.51%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6643) The Alcon Blue occurs in local, scattered populations. Oftentimes it is referred to as two distinct species: P. akon on low-lying wet heathland, on moist fen meadows and bogs, and P. rebeé on dry as well as sub-alpine calcareous grasslands. Usually, only a few butterflies are seen. The bright, white eges ate easy to find. Depending on the habitat, they are laid on the flowers and sepals of Marsh Gentian (Gentiana pneumonanthe), Willow Gentian (G. asclepiadea), and Cross Gentian (G. cruciata). At first, the small caterpillars feed on the ovaries of the foodplant, but they pass the last instar in the nests of various Myrmica ants, which they parasitize by living like young cuckoos, being fed by the worker ants. They hibernate and pupate in the ant nests. The Alcon Blue has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh a a =) a ee Pm On cfes o= mH = £5 8 Oo. 4 ow 6 fo o ng = a ger | ae a @e- 2 o wv x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 275 Phengaris alcon (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 276 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus argus (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Silver-studded Blue a -2138 (-11.19%) | -4148 (-21.71%) SEDG -865 (-4.53%) | -5024 (-26.29%) BAMBU_ | -3038 (-15.9%) | -7385 (-38.65%) 12s conser) | 9598 (302579 © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 19107) The Silver-studded Blue can be found in warm places on short vegetation, ranging from dry to quite damp, such as heath and poor grassland. Especially impressive are the roosting places with enormous groups, sometimes of hundreds of butterflies, asleep in a very small area. The eggs are laid on Cross-leaved Heath (Ema retrain), and on a wide range of leguminous plants. Usually, the eggs are deposited low down on the foodplant or on its woody parts. The egg hibernates. The caterpillars live on the leaves of the foodplants. They are often tended by ants of the genus Lasius. Pupation often takes place in the outer passages of the ant nests. The ants also give the pupa a lot of attention. Depending on the geographical position and altitude of occurrence, the Silver-studded Blue has one or two generations a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a moderate extent (AUC = 0.69). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe O06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe E 1.0 0.2 0.6 fh. 1.0 Swe o2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 277 Plebejus argus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 278 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus idas (LINNAEUS, 1761) — Idas Blue a -5296 (-28.72%) | -5309 (-28.79%) SEDG -6083 (-32.99%) | -6192 (-33.58%) BAMBU_ | _ -7986 (-43.31%) | -8006 (-43.42%) -9992 (-54.19%) | -10023 (-54.36%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 18438) The Idas Blue can be found on poor grassland and heath rich in herbaceous plants, both in open places and woodland. Eggs are laid on many different species of leguminous plants, such as Broom (Cytisus scoparius), Hairy Greenweed (Genzsta pilosa), Common Birdsfoot-trefoil (Coronilla varia), White Melhilot (Med/otus alba), and the Ericaceae, Ling or Heather (Ca/luna vulgaris) and Bog Whortleberry (Vaccinium uliginosum), and the Yellow Rocktrose (Hehanthemum oelandicum). The female deposits the ege onto a woody part of the foodplant where the egg then hibernates. The caterpillars are attended a lot by ants, especially those of the genera Formica and Lasius. When fully grown, the caterpillar crawls into the passages of the ant nest to pupate. Depending on the geographical location the Idas Blue produces one or two generations a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.74). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘1.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) O06 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 279 Plebejus idas (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 280 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus argyrognomon (BERGSTRASSER, 1779) — Reverdin’s Blue aa ee 1176 (21.05%) | -2065 (-36.95%) ee 267 (4.78%) -2681 (-47.98%) SEDG 760 (13.6%) -3178 (-56.87%) BAMBU 297 (5.31%) -4064 (-72.73%) -655 (-11.72%) | -4776 (-85.47%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5588) Reverdin’s Blue can be found on poor grassland in places ranging from dry to moist at the edges of woodland or scrub. Eggs are laid on Crown Vetch (Coromilla varia) and Milk-vetch (Astragalus ghcyphyllos). The female mostly chooses a woody part of the plant, where the egg may hibernate. The small caterpillars feed on the young leaves. They are attended by Lasius and Myrmica as well as Formica and Camponotus ants, and pupate deep down in the vegetation. Except 1n Scandinavia where it is single-brooded, the Reverdin’s Blue has two generations a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 0.2 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 281 Pkebejus argyrognomon (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 282 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus optilete (KNocH, 1781) — Cranberry Blue a se -3065 (-30.37%) | -3153 (31.24%) SEDG -4367 (-43.27%) | -4580 (-45.38%) BAMBU_ | _ -4949 (-49.04%) | -5057 (-50.11%) -6135 (-60.79%) | -6209 (-61.52%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 10092) The Cranberry Blue occurs on raised bogs, heath and also in woodland clearings, where dwarf shrubs are growing. Although populations are at times extremely small, they can also have considerable numbers of butterflies. Eggs are laid on Marsh Andromeda (Andromeda palusins), Erica tetrahx, Empetrum nigrum, and a small number of Vaccinium species, including Cranberry (V. oxycoccus). The caterpillars eat both the flowers and leaves of the foodplants, moving from one plant to another. When they are half-grown, they move into the litter layer and hibernate. However, they pupate on the plant, spinning a silken girdle in which the pupa hangs. The Cranberry Blue has one generation a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Gadd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 o2 Swe 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 283 Plkebejus optiletev (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 284 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus glandon (PRUNNER, 1798) — Glandon Blue CLL Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG 14 (3.29%) -229 (-53.88%) 94 (22.12%) -189 (-44.47%) 2eaamn | 237 655709 SEDG -221 (-52%) -348 (-81.88%) BAMBU -93 (-21.88%) -283 (-66.59%) -235 (-55.29%) | -363 (-85.41%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 425) In Central Europe, the Glandon Blue is found up to the snow-line on grassy vegetation, where the foodplants grow on open patches. On calcareous soils, Axdrosace chamacjasme is used, and on non-calcareous soils, the caterpillars feed on A. oblusifoha and Vitakana primulflora. The caterpillars feed on the leaves and sometimes the flowers of the foodplants. The Glandon Blue hibernates as a caterpillar, and in all parts of its range has one generation a year. We treat Plebejus glandon as separate from P. aguilo (BoIsDUVAL, 1832) (see next species) and P. zwellichi (HEMMING, 1933) @vhich is endemic to the Sierra Nevada and was not modelled here due to its restricted distribution), while other authors split the species into three subspecies. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum toad 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 285 Plebejus glandon (Lycaenidae) (1a) 5)q04s (ZV) nanva 2080 2050 286 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus aquilo (BoisDUVAL, 1832) — Arctic Blue 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG -462 (-66.47%) -529 (-76.12%) BAMBU -479 (-68.92%) | -537 (-77.27%) -497 (-71.51%) | -553 (-79.57%) SEDG -562 (-80.86%) | -637 (-91.65%) BAMBU -646 (-92.95%) | -685 (-98.56%) GRAS -682 (-98.13%) -695 (-100%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 695) This species occurs exclusively in Northern Fennoscandia. It occurs on slate and shale rocks with patches of grassy vegetation and with Crowberry (Empetrum nigrum), especially in areas sheltered from the northwestern wind. It lives in elevations between 0 and 900 m asl. Larval foodplants are Saxifraga aixoides and S. oppositifola. The small larvae feed on the flower buds and hibernate. Later the larvae feed on the leaves. The species has one generation which is on the wing from late June until early August. It is often considered as a subspecies of Plebejus glandon. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 1). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pkebejus aquilo (Lycaenidae) 287 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 2050 2080 288 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus orbitulus (PRUNNER, 1798) — Alpine Blue .—hCcLUwe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -234 (-18.84%) -356 (-28.66%) BAMBU -226 (-18.2%) -333 (-26.81%) -299 (-24.07%) | -397 (-31.96%) SEDG -352 (-28.34%) | -505 (-40.66%) BAMBU -365 (-29.39%) | -489 (-39.37%) GRAS -493 (-39.69%) | -615 (-49.52%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1242) In the Alps, the Alpine Blue is mostly found on sunny, rocky slopes, scree slopes with patches of flower-rich vegetation, and often on the rough vegetation growing beside streams. These butterflies usually fly to lower-lying areas in search of nectar. The foodplants are Alpine Milk-vetch (Astragalus alpinus), Alpine Sainfoin (Hedysarum hedysaroides), and probably Mountain Beaked Milk-vetch (Oxytropis jacquini). In Scandinavia, this blue occurs in the mountains on open, damp slate slopes where its foodplant Alpine Milk-vetch grows. The Alpine Blue hibernates as a small caterpillar and has one generation a year. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0,98). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd d Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 289 Plebejus orbitulus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 290 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Plebejus sephirus (Frivacpszky, 1835) .—CcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 3 (0.25%) -833 (-70.06%) BAMBU_ | -143 (-12.03%) | -760 (-63.92%) 743 (62.49%) -676 (-56.85%) SEDG -100 (-8.41%) | -1115 (-93.78%) BAMBU_ | -441 (-37.09%) | -1020 (-85.79%) 330 (27.75%) -853 (-71.74%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1189) By some authors this species, described from Bulgaria, is treated as a subspecies of Pkbejus pylaon (FISCHER, 1832) and as a distinct species by others. Other taxa besides P. pylaon, which are closely related to P. sephirus, are P. hespericus (RAMBUR, 1839) from Spain and the Alpine P. frappi (VERITY, 1927). All of them are not treated here due to their limited distributions. It occurs eastwards of the river Danube to the Dnepr region and southwards through Transylvania to the Balkans. Its habitats are loess steppes and calcareous terrains in the forest steppe belt from sea level to 1600 m. Larval host-plants are Astragalus species. The caterpillars are facultatively myrmecophilous and are garded by many different ant species. It has one short generation in May, June or July, depending on altitude and latitude. It hibernates as a small larva. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.93). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 o2 Swe 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 291 Pkebejus sephirus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 292 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aricia eumedon (Esrrr, 1780) — Geranium Argus SEDG -3967 (-29.63%) | -4888 (-36.51%) BAMBU -6493 (-48.5%) | -7131 (53.26%) -7151 (53.41%) | -7854 (58.66%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13389) The Geranium Argus occurs locally, in meadows, stream valleys, and at woodland edges. The female lays her eggs in the flowers of crane’s-bills (Geranium spp.), at the base of the ovary into which the small caterpillar bores its way on hatching out. It stays there for a little more than a week. It then starts feeding on leaves, first gnawing on the stems, which causes them to wilt. When half- grown, the caterpillars hibernate in the litter layer, but pupate on the foodplant. They are sometimes attended by ants of the genera Myrmica, Lasius and Tapinoma. The Geranium Argus has only one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 0.6 sh a a =) a i e Pe Oe cfes o= mH =e | £5 3 Oo. 4 oO r 28 a ng = a ger i | ae qf. = eo wo x é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 4000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 293 Alricia eumedon (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 294 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aricia cramera (ESCHSCHOLTZ, 1821) a -1591 (-64.39%) | -1843 (-74.59%) SEDG -1692 (-68.47%) | -2033 (-82.27%) BAMBU_ | -2054 (-83.12%) | -2346 (-94.94%) -1950 (-78.92%) | -2448 (-99.07%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2471) This butterfly species can be found in flower-rich, places, in scrub or at woodland edges. The most important foodplants are stork’s-bills (Erodium spp.) and crane’s-bills (Geranium spp.), of which the caterpillars eat the leaves. Knapweeds (Cenfaurea spp.), tockroses (Hekanthemum spp.), and Leguminous plants, such as clovers (Imfolum spp.) and brooms (Cytsus spp.) have also been mentioned. This species has two to three generations a year and is often found together with ants of the genera Myrmica and Lasius. Hibernation takes place as larva. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = mm a a = Ow =a ee] cH oO ne , 4 : il : ? : mH o o Ow $0 LP) ™ o faa 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 295 Alritia cramera (Lycaenidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) nNanva 2080 2050 296 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aricta agestis ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Brown Argus .6—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 299 (1.96%) -2499 (-16.38%) BAMBU -354 (-2.32%) | -3124 (-20.48%) -837 (5.49%) | -3631 (23.81%) SEDG -2279 (-14.94%) | -4933 (-32.34%) BAMBU_ | -3463 (-22.7%) | -6939 (-45.49%) -4787 (-31.38%) | -8715 (-57.14%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 15253) The Brown Argus occurs on warm grasslands, in heaths, and in dunes. It can also be found on sandy, pioneer vegetation, as for example in sand-pits, or where houses are being built. It lays its eggs on small crane’s-bill (Geranium spp.) and rockroses (Hedanthemum spp.). It may build up numerous, small populations. At first, the small caterpillars only scrape off the undermost layer of the leaves making little “windows” in the leaves. Later, the bigger caterpillars feed on the whole leaf. They are often attended by Lasiws and Myrmica ants. The caterpillars can hibernate at any stage. Pupation takes place in the litter layer. The Brown Argus has two to three generations depending on the geographical location. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.7). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum m a - : : - ? todd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Arricia agestis (Lycaenidae) 297 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 298 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aricta artaxerxes (Fasricius, 1793) — Northern Brown Argus a -4476 (-46.3%) -4601 (-47.59%) SEDG -4943 (51.13%) | -5186 (-53.64%) BAMBU_ | -7110 (-73.54%) | -7262 (-75.11%) -7886 (-81.57%) | -8037 (-83.13%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9668) The Northern Brown Argus likes open grasslands or dry vegetation at the edges of woods. It ts more closely bound to calcareous soil than the Brown Argus. The eggs are laid on various rockroses (Fekanthemum spp.), as well as on various crane’s-bills (Geranium spp.). The caterpillars feed on the leaves, often attended by Laszus ants. When the caterpillars are half-grown, they hibernate. Pupation takes place in the litter layer. There is always only one generation. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 299 artaxerxes (Lycaenidae) rita A 2080 2050 300 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aricta montensis (VERITY, 1928) — Southern Mountain Argus .ClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -458 (-53.32%) -618 (-71.94%) BU -606 (-70.55%) | -683 (-79.51%) BAM -593 (-69.03%) | -755 (-87.89%) SEDG -591 (-68.8%) -804 (-93.6%) BAMBU -605 (-70.43%) | -819 (-95.34%) -464 (54.02%) | -840 (-97.79%) © Matt Rowlings Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 859) The taxonomic relationship of several Anca species is not yet cleat. Aria montensis is often regarded as a subspecies of A. arfaxerxes. In the context of this atlas the species has been modeled independently, but there also would have been good reasons to keep it within A. arfanxerxes. It occurs on the mountains south of the range or A. arflaxerxes, 1t has no white spots on the upperside of the wings and distinct black spots underneath them (like the subspecies A. a. a//ous, but 1t is bigger than those). Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.7). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 ct Qa i=] =) 2 = 7 Pm Oe a =o o= mH =e £5 8 Oo 4 Ome 6 oo aes = 0 SR 4 hee qe. = Pos ® é 5 = 4 o 2000 4000-0 Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 301 Alritia montensis (Lycaenidae) (1a) 04s (ZV) Nanva (ld LV) SVH9 2080 2050 302 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aricta anteros (FREYER, 1838) — Blue Argus =r Full dispersal No dispersal z S -64 (-12.72%) -300 (-59.64%) -300 (-59.64%) | -445 (-88.47%) -355 (-70.58%) | -488 (-97.02%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 503) The Blue Argus is a species of flower-rich grasslands and rocky slopes with grassy vegetation. Sometimes, they are also seen on scrub or in woodland clearings. This butterfly it is often found where the soil is calcareous. Various sorts of crane’s-bills (Geranium spp.) are used as foodplant, including G. asphodeloides, Bloody Crane’s-bill (G. sanguineum), and Rock Crane’s-bill (G. macrorrhizum). The caterpillars feed on the leaves and are attended by ants. Depending on the altitude, the Blue Argus has one to three generations a yeat. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum | pa o cil o aad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 Swe od “4, o pe ‘= Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 303 Arricia anteros (Lycaenidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) Nanva 2080 2050 304 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aricta nictas (MEIGEN, 1829) — Silvery Argus ae ee -1380 (-32.09%) | -1528 (35.53%) ams | aera [i SEDG -207 (-4.81%) | -1031 (-23.97%) BAMBU_ | -1611 (-37.46%) | -2242 (-52.13%) GRAS -1952 (-45.38%) | -2625 (-61.03%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4301) The Silvery Argus occurs on flower-rich grasslands with some bushes or trees, in grass along the hedges, at the edge of woodland, and in sunny, grassy woodland clearings. The grassland on which the Silvery Argus occurs is usually damp with rather tall vegetation, but it is also seen on dry grassland. The female lays her eges on the flowers of Wood Crane’s-bill (Geranium syhaticum) and Meadow Crane’s-bill (G. pratense). The caterpillars eat the leaves as well as the flowers. They are attended by ants. This butterfly hibernates as a larva, but in Scandinavia it is said to overwinter in the egg stage. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o _ cm a = = Ow =o uw m™ Oo a : ; : : . 4 o = 1H o ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 305 (Lycaenidae) ruta nicias A 2080 2050 306 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Cyaniris semiargus (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) — Mazarine Blue .—hlcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -131 (-0.75%) -2574 (-14.83%) -349 (-2.01%) | -2498 (-14.39%) -2792 (-16.08%) | -6166 (-35.52%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 17359) The Mazarine Blue usually occurs on quite damp vegetation in flower-rich meadows and pastures and at the edges of woodland. These butterflies are fond of basking together in groups and are then easy to find and to be observed. The female deposits her eggs on the flowerheads of Red Clover (Infolum pratense), eating the unopened buds. The first instar caterpillar only feeds on buds and flowers, later stages also feed on leaves. The colours of the caterpillars are well adapted to their surroundings, with pink in the first instar and then green in later stages. The caterpillars can hardly be seen while feeding on the foodplants. Ants of the genera Lasius and Camponotus attend the caterpillars. Depending on the altitude and position in the range, the Mazarine Blue has one to three generations a year. The hibernation takes place as a larva. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 | a = =) a = 7 Be ee =a o= mH = £5 8 Oo 4 of 7 vases a. es eh ™ is on te | aoe a @e- Zo wo x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 307 Cyaniris semiargus (Lycaenidae) ap] Th we i iT a as q fa OM, 2080 2050 308 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus escheri (HUBNER, 1823) — Eschet’s Blue cos -1061 (-45.93%) -1633 (-70.69%) ee -1243 (-53.81%) -1873 (-81.08%) SEDG -788 (-34.11%) | -1988 (-86.06%) BAMBU_ | -1188 (-51.43%) | -2116 (-91.6%) -1178 (-51%) -2268 (-98.18%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2310) Escher’s Blue occurs on dry, and flower-rich grassland, damp rough vegetation, in flower-rich rocky places, on scrub and at woodland edges, and on agricultural land. The females lay their eggs singly on milk-vetches (Astragalus spp.), in particular A. monspessulanus. Oxytropis hehetica may also be a foodplant. When still small, the caterpillar goes into hibernation, and in the spring completes its erowth, feeding on the leaves and flowerbuds of the foodplants. When fully grown, it leaves the foodplant and pupates under stones. Both caterpillars and pupae are attended by ants of different genera including Myrmica, Formica, Lasius and Plagiolepis. Eschet’s Blue is single-brooded. It hibernates as a larva. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 309 Polommatus eschert (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 310 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus dorylas ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Turquoise Blue .—hlcLwE Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -949 (-21%) -2030 (-44.91%) BAMBU_ | -1526 (-33.76%) | -2328 (-51.5%) -1804 (-39.91%) | -2684 (-59.38%) SEDG -372 (-8.23%) | -2706 (-59.87%) BAMBU_ | -1383 (30.6%) | -3262 (-72.17%) -1903 (-42.1%) | -3725 (-82.41%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4520) The Turquoise Blue likes the warmth, occurring on dry, flower-rich slopes and calcareous grassland, often where there is shelter from a wood or from bushes. The butterflies are nearly always seen on calcareous ground. The populations are usually small in mountainous areas. The female lays her eggs on Kidney-vetch (Axnthylis vulnerana), depositing them onto the underside of the leaves and also on the sepals. The newly-hatched caterpillars feed by scraping off the undermost layer of cells, so making little “windows” in the leaves. Later, they feed on the whole leaf. They are attended by various ant species, including those belonging to the genera Myrmica, Lasius, and Formica. The caterpillars pupate in the litter layer. The Turquoise Blue mostly has two generations, but at higher altitudes and in the north of its range, it is single-brooded. Hibernation takes place as a small larva. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o Bm Gadd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 Aad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘1.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 311 Polyommatus dorylas (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 312 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus nivescens (KEFERSTEIN, 1851) — Mother-of-pearl Blue .—ClcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -378 (-80.94%) -392 (-83.94%) BAMBU -434 (92.93%) | -434 (-92.93%) -446 (-95.5%) -448 (-95.93%) SEDG -466 (-99.79%) | -466 (-99.79%) BAMBU -467 (-100%) -467 (-100%) -467 (-100%) -467 (-100%) © Hermann Haas Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 467) The Mother-of-pearl Blue occurs in flower-rich grasslands and on warm, dry chalk rocks with scattered patches of grassy vegetation and an occasional bush. The female lays her eggs on the leaves of Kidney-vetch (Anthylis vulneraria), seeming to prefer smaller plants. Other leguminous plants, such as clovers (Imfolum spp.) and birdsfoot-trefoils (Lo/ws spp.) are possibly also used as foodplants. The small caterpillars go into hibernation, and after feeding and growing further, they pupate at the end of the spring on the ground. The caterpillars are attended by ants of the species Tapinoma erraticum. Vhe Mother-of-pearl Blue has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Polhommatus nivescens (Lycaenidae) 2080 SEDG 313 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 314 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus amandus (SCHNEIDER, 1792) — Amanda’s Blue a -4505 (-44.66%) | -5013 (-49.7%) SEDG -6907 (-68.47%) | -7321 (-72.58%) BAMBU_ | -8257 (-81.86%) | -8426 (-83.53%) -8935 (-88.58%) | -9088 (-90.1%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 10087) The German name for this butterfly, “Prachtiger Blaulinge” (Magnificent Blue), is well chosen, if only for the colour of the males. They are a bright sky-blue, and they also attract attention by their territorial behaviour. The females’ are modest brown in most of their distribution area and have a ereenish-blue sheen. Amanda’s Blue occurs on flower-rich grassland with damp patches, that has some shelter from bushes or a nearby woodland edge. The female lays her eggs on the leaves of vetches (Vicia spp.) and possibly also vetchlings (Lathyrus spp.). The caterpillars hibernate in the litter layer and are attended by ants of the genera Lasius, Myrmica, Formica, and Tapinoma. They also pupate in the litter layer. Amanda’s Blue 1s single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 aad 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0. Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 315 Polommatus amandus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 316 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus thersites (CANTENER, 1834) — Chapman’s Blue .—ClcLee Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 787 (11.31%) -2140 (-30.75%) BAMBU -278 (-3.99%) | -2569 (-36.92%) -140 (-2.01%) | -2824 (-40.58%) SEDG 279 (4.01%) -3388 (-48.69%) BAMBU_ | -746 (-10.72%) | -4622 (-66.42%) -1437 (-20.65%) -5673 (-81.52%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6959) The Chapman’s Blue looks very much like the Common Blue (P. scarus). However, the two black spots in the cell on the underside of the forewing are absent. It occurs in warm, dry places, such as calcareous and poor grasslands, fields of sainfoin, and abandoned agricultural land. Eggs are laid on Sainfoin (Oxobrychis vicitfola), and 1n Greece also on Cockscomb Sainfoin (O. caput-gall). The caterpillars feed on soft parts of the leaflets, leaving the veins. The small caterpillars go into hibernation, and in those parts of the range with hot climates, the egg or undeveloped larva possibly goes into aestivation. The caterpillars are attended by ants of the genera Lasius, Formica, Myrmica, and Tapinoma, and hide themselves in the litter layer and pupate. The Chapman’s Blue usually has two generations a year, but in the south of the range also three. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 317 Polbommatus thersites (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 318 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus icarus (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) - Common Blue ear Ream -3054 (-12.06%) | -4374 (-17.27%) SEDG -2279 (-9%) -5242 (-20.7%) BAMBU_ | -5208 (-20.57%) | -7950 (-31.4%) -7231 (-28.56%) | -10608 (-41.9%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 25320) The Common Blue is a very common butterfly. It looks rather like Chapman’s Blue (P. shersiles), but the two black spots on the underside of its front wings distinguish it 1n most specimens. It can be found on most types of grassy vegetation, ranging from quite dry, poor grassland to moderately damp meadows. The female lays her eggs on a variety of leguminous plants, including Common Birdsfoot—trefoil (Lo/us corniculatus). The caterpillars feed on the leaves. They are attended by ants of the genera Lasius, Formica, Myrmica, Tapinoma, and Plagiolepis. When half-grown, the caterpillars may hibernate in the litter layer. In hot climates, aesttvation possibly also takes place, in the egg or larval stage. The caterpillars pupate in the litter layer. Depending on the geographical position and altitude of the breeding ground, the Common Blue has one to three (or even more) generations a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.65). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 fod 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Polyommatus icarus (Lycaenidae) SEDG 319 (B1) GRAS (A1Fl) 320 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus eros (OCHSENHEIMER, 1808) — Eros Blue a RAS -1162 (-43.83%) | -1322 (-49.87%) G SEDG -1071 (-40.4%) | -1530 (57.71%) BAMBU_ | -1167 (-44.02%) | -1570 (-59.22%) -1399 (-52.77%) -1855 (-69.97%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2651) The Eros Blue is a mountain butterfly occurring on sub-alpine and alpine grasslands, on rocky places with flower-rich vegetation and on scree slopes. Purple Beaked Milk-vetch (Oxytropis haller?) and O. fetida are probably the major foodplants but other leguminous plants such as Astragalus sempervirens, A, leontinus, and Common Birdsfoot-trefoil (Lots corniculatus) have also been named. The caterpillars feed on the leaves of the foodplant and hibernate on it. In spring, they grow further and when fully grown, pupate at the foot of the foodplants. They are attended by ants of the genera Myrmica, Formica and Camponotus. The Eros Blue has one generation a year. Polyommatus eroides, which 1s listed 1n the Annexes I] and IV of the Habitats’ Directive, 1s also is included here. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.71). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o todd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe O46 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Polyommatus eros (Lycaenidae) 2080 321 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 322 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus daphnis ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Meleaget’s Blue 6c Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -599 (-7.06%) -2243 (-26.44%) -2615 (-30.83%) | -3487 (-41.11%) -4525 (53.34%) | -6338 (-74.71%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8483) The Meleager’s Blue is a local butterfly that occurs on poor, rough vegetation and poor grassland often neat woods. The populations are usually small. The scalloped edge of the hindwing of the female distinguishes this species from all other blues. The female lays her eggs on Horseshoe Vetch (Hippocrepis comosa) and Crown Vetch (Coronilla varia), favouring plants that grow in the shade provided by rocks or woodland. The caterpillars are attended by ants, including species of Lasts, Formica, and Tapinoma. Either the egg or the small caterpillar hibernates, and pupation takes place in the litter layer. The Meleager’s Blue has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 0.6 10 02 Swe 06 10 0.2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 6 1002 O86 16 1.0 - _ i 1 1 Swe o.2 L=] 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gadd Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 323 Polommatus daphnis (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 324 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus bellargus (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) — Adonis Blue -405 (-3.31%) -5496 (-44.88%) GRAS -1117 (-9.12%) | -6854 (-55.97%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12245) The Adonis Blue is found on calcareous soil on moderately to very sparse grassland, that is often sheltered by neighbouring woods or shrub. Its foodplants are Horseshoe Vetch (Hippocrepis comosa) and Crown Vetch (Coronilla varia), and the eggs are laid on the leaves. It pupates in the litter layer. The caterpillars are attended by ants of the genera Myrmica, Lasius, Plagiolepis, Tetramorium, Formica, and Tapinoma. The Adonis Blue usually has two generations a year, and the caterpillars of the second brood hibernate. There are also some single-brooded populations in the south of Greece. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Polyommatus bellargus (Lycaenidae) 325 (B1) SEDG GRAS (AFI) 326 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus coridon (Popa, 1761) — Chalkhill Blue AMBU -838 (-9.52%) | -5197 (-59.02%) -1527 (-17.34%) | -6483 (-73.62%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8806) The Chalkhill Blue occurs on calcareous soil in dry, and flower-rich places with a short vegetation. They seem to prefer sheltered places. Sometimes, populations can be extremely large which 1s especially obvious in the late afternoon when the butterflies come together to roost. Hundreds of butterflies can be seen, their heads pointing downwards into the vegetation, wings upright, the light- coloured underwings gleaming in the evening sun. Horseshoe Vetch (Hippocrepis comosa) is its only foodplant, the female laying her eggs on the leaves. The eggs hibernate. The caterpillars are attended by ants of the genera Myrmica, Lasius, Formica, Plagiolepis, Tetramorium, Aphaenogaster, and Tapinoma. The Chalk-hill Blue pupates in the litter layer. It usually only has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘aad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 60.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 327 Polyommatus coridon (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 328 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus hispanus (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1851) — Provence Chalkhill Blue SEDG 170 (21.46%) -557 (-70.33%) BAMBU 68 (8.59%) -559 (-70.58%) 145 (18.31%) -608 (-76.77%) SEDG 500 (63.13%) -656 (-82.83%) BAMBU 214 (27.02%) -739 (-93.31%) 151 (19.07%) -787 (-99.37%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 792) The Provence Chalkhill Blue occurs on dry, calcareous soils covered with a flower-rich grassy vegetation, often with scattered bushes. Eggs are laid on Horseshoe-vetch (Hippocrepis comosa). The caterpillars are attended by ants of the genera Plagiolepis and Crematogaster. The Provence Chalkhill Blue has two generations a year and the butterflies can be seen as late as October. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum | edd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 329 Polbommatus hispanus (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 330 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus albicans (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1851) — Spanish Chalkhill Blue [etn [sean -457 (-48.11%) | -598 (-62.95%) SEDG -924 (-97.26%) | -926 (-97.47%) BAMBU -946 (-99.58%) -950 (-100%) -922 (-97.05%) -950 (-100%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 950) The Spanish Chalkhill Blue can be seen in dry, calcareous rocky places with grassy vegetation, and in dry, open scrub. Its most important foodplant is Horseshoe Vetch (Hippocrepis comosa), although H. multisiliquosa is possibly also used. The female lays her eggs on the leaves. The caterpillars are often found accompanied by Tapinoma ants. This butterfly species is single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 10 0.2 0.6 Swe 6 1002 O86 o6 1.0 oOo S Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 0 2000 400 2 40000 2000 40000 2000 400) Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Pobommatus albicans (Lycaenidae) 2080 SEDG 331 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 332 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus admetus (EsPEr, 1785) — Anomalous Blue Cc Full dispersal No dispersal Hee SEDG 568 (36.96%) -842 (-54.78%) -452 (-29.41%) -1020 (-66.36%) -1004 (-65.32%) | -1357 (-88.29%) aa -915 (-59.53%) | -1464 (-95.25%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1537) The Anomalous Blue occurs in woodland clearings, open scrub, on sheltered slopes and in agricultural areas. All the places are warm and have a flower-rich grassy vegetation. The females lay their eggs on the flowers of Sainfoin (Oxobrychis vicufoha) and Cockscomb Sainfoin (O. caput-galh). The caterpillars are attended by ants of the genera Crematogaster, Camponotus, and Tapinoma. The Anomalous Blue has one generation a year and hibernation takes place on the ground, the small caterpillars hiding under stones. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o | ow E =e =H = 6 o = =o 1 cH oa a : : , . , : ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Polyommatus admetus (Lycaenidae) 333 334 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus ripartii (FREYER, 1830) — Ripart’s Anomalous Blue 6c Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -290 (-63.04%) -336 (-73.04%) z BAMBU -342 (-74.35%) | -372 (-80.87%) -349 (-75.87%) | -384 (-83.48%) SEDG -359 (-78.04%) -408 (-88.7%) BAMBU -406 (-88.26%) | -433 (-94.13%) [oras | -447 (-97.17%) -456 (-99.13%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 460) Ripart’s Anomalous Blue is mostly found on dry, grassy places with bushes. Different sainfoins are used as foodplant, such as Sainfoin (Oxobrychis viciifoha), O. arenaria, Rock Sainfoin (O. sanxatiis), and O. alba. The female lays her eggs on the flowers. The caterpillars hibernate when still small. They are often attended by ants of the genera Crematogaster, Camponotus, and Lasius. The Ripart’s Anomalous Blue has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 tea 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Polommatus riparti (Lycaenidae) 2080 335 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 336 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus dolus (HUBNER, 1823) — Furry Blue .—hCcLee Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -58 (-27.1%) -190 (-88.79%) BU -90 (-42.06%) -192 (-89.72%) 2 BAM -34 (-15.89%) -202 (-94.39%) SEDG 105 (49.07%) -208 (-97.2%) BAMBU -97 (-45.33%) -214 (-100%) -79 (-36.92%) -214 (-100%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 214) The Furry Blue occurs on dry, flower-rich, grassy vegetation with scrub, on waste ground, and in clearings in deciduous or coniferous woods. The female lays her eggs on Sainfoin (Oxobrychis victifola). The butterflies are attended by ants. Hibernation takes place when the caterpillars are still small. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variablesnt (AUC = 0.97). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe ‘0.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o6 10 02 o2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Polommatus dolus (Lycaenidae) 2080 337 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 338 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Polyommatus damon ({ScHIFFERMULLER], 1775) - Damon Blue SEDG -660 (-28.23%) -1169 (-50%) BAMBU -850 (-36.36%) | -1277 (-54.62%) -1112 (-47.56%) | -1526 (-65.27%) SEDG -857 (-36.66%) | -1653 (-70.7%) BAMBU_ | -1091 (-46.66%) | -1769 (-75.66%) -1409 (-60.27%) | -2009 (-85.93%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2338) The Damon Blue is found on calcareous soil, on grasslands, rough vegetation, such as small patches at the edge of scrub or woodland, and also on abandoned Sainfoin (Oxobrychis vicufoha) fields. It lays its eggs on different species of Oxobrychis, including Sainfoin (Oxobrychis vicufolia). The caterpillars seem to like being between the flowers and only start to feed late in the afternoon. They are often attended by ants of the genera Lasius or Formica. They pupate in the litter layer. The Damon Blue has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 | ri 4 bel 7 sir} oc Fa : . F ? ; _ ah o 2 w o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 aad 4000 0 Gd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Swe 0.6 10 Oo2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 339 Polommatus damon (Lycaenidae) 2080 2050 340 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hamearis lucina (LiNNAEus, 1758) — Duke of Burgundy Fritillary .—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG 5 (0.89%) -2192 (-35.31%) 529 (8.52%) -2161 (-34.82%) Cer ee SEDG -249 (-4.01%) | -3222 (-51.91%) BAMBU -452 (-7.28%) | -4008 (-64.57%) -1480 (-23.84%) | -5148 (-82.94%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6207) The Duke of Burgundy Fritillary occurs in woodland clearings, along the edges of paths in the woods, and at woodland edges. Although the populations are often very local, the numbers of butterflies can be considerable. Eggs are laid on the underside of the leaves of Primula species. The caterpillars feed at night, hiding themselves during the day by lying along the main nerve of the Primula \eaf. Vhey leave the larval foodplants to hibernate in the litter layer. Mostly, it has only one generation a year, but 1n warm areas, there may be a second generation late in the year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum tad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 341 Hamearis lucina (Riodinidae) 2080 2050 342 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Libythea celtis (LAICHARTING, 1782) — Nettle-tree Butterfly .—hCcLee Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -582 (-15.8%) -1642 (-44.57%) BAMBU_ | -1280 (-34.74%) | -1946 (52.82%) -1165 (-31.62%) | -2165 (58.77%) SEDG -813 (-22.07%) | -2341 (-63.55%) BAMBU_ | -1635 (-44.38%) | -3068 (-83.28%) -1312 (-35.61%) | -3409 (-92.54%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3684) The Nettle-tree Butterfly is one of the snout butterflies, so-called because of its long maxillary palps, which point forward seemingly forming a snout. They are often found in scrub or woods, where the major foodplant, the Nettle Tree (Ced#s australis) grows. The eggs are laid singly on the leaf buds, early in the year because this butterfly hibernates in the adult stage, appearing again in March. The green or brown caterpillars keep mostly to the underside of the leaves, and also pupate there. The Nettle-tree Butterfly has one generation a year. The adult enters hibernation sometimes as soon as August. The brown underside of its wings provides a good camouflage in the dense undergrowth where it spends the winter looking very much like a dead leaf. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 343 Libythea celts (Labytheidae) 2080 2050 344 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Argynnis paphia (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Silver-washed Fritillary a -2577 (-14.1%) | -4369 (-23.91%) SEDG -2912 (-15.93%) | -5757 (-31.5%) BAMBU_ | -4872 (-26.66%) | -8253 (-45.16%) -6457 (-35.33%) | -11083 (-60.64%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 18276) The Silver-washed Fritillary is a large, conspicuous butterfly that is often present in large numbers. Needing a lot of nectar, they are often found on thistles at the edge of woodland. They also occur on rough vegetation in woodland clearings. Unlike other butterflies, the eggs are not laid on the foodplant. Instead, the female deposits them singly on the branches and trunks of trees growing at woodland edges. As soon as they emerge from the egg in the late summer, the tiny caterpillar looks for somewhere to hibernate. In the spring it starts looking for violets (20/4 spp.), on which it feeds at night, hiding under the leaves of the foodplant during the day. It pupates on a stalk of a violet plant, or in a crevice in the bark of a tree. The Silver-washed Fritillary has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Arrgynnis paphia (Nymphalidae) 345 SEDG (B1) GRAS (A1Fl) 346 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Argynnis pandora ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Cardinal a -587 (-10.8%) | -2566 (-47.23%) SEDG -1599 (-29.43%) | -3246 (-59.75%) BAMBU_ | -3121 (-57.45%) | -4172 (-76.79%) -2148 (-39.54%) | -4744 (87.32%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5433) The Cardinal 1s a woodland butterfly occurring at woodland edges and in glades with bushes and grassy, flower-rich vegetations. Like the Silver-washed Fritillary (4. pap/ia), these butterflies are often seen in places where plants rich in nectar, such as thistles, are plentiful. The Cardinal 1s a fast and powerful flyer, vagrants being sometimes observed outside the distribution range. The eggs are laid singly on the leaves of violets (V/zo/@ spp.). It hibernates as a small caterpillar and pupates in the spring, suspended low down on the foodplant or on the nearby vegetation. It 1s single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘0.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 100 0.2 0.6 Swe o2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 dl Gd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 347 Arrgynnis pandora (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 348 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Argynnis aglaja (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Dark Green Fritillary .—hCcLUwE Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -1213 (-5.9%) -3328 (-16.19%) BAMBU_ | _ -2865 (-13.94%) | -4599 (-22.38%) -2885 (-14.04%) | -4947 (-24.07%) SEDG -4162 (-20.25%) | -7016 (-34.14%) BAMBU_ | -7493 (-36.46%) | -10512 (-51.15%) -9906 (-48.2%) -13024 (-63.37%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20551) The Dark Green Fritillary can be found on many different types of flower-rich grasslands. The erassland is often situated in or at the edge of woodland, and may be dry, calcareous or dune grassland, or damp grasslands along the edges of bogs. The eggs are laid on the often already withered leaf-stems of violets (zo spp.). Directly after hatching, the small caterpillar prepares for hibernation, hiding itself in the litter layer until the spring. It then begins to feed on the fresh, new growth of the violet plants, continuing into the summer, when it pupates either in the moss layer, or under a tussock of grass. The caterpillars are quite mobile and visit several plants when feeding. The Dark Green Fritillary is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o = i | a = se | | r=] todd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 Swe 0.6 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 349 Arrgynnis aglaja (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 350 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Argynnis adippe ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — High Brown Fritillary a se -3720 (-26.2%) | -4865 (-34.26%) SEDG -3763 (-26.5%) | -5920 (-41.69%) BAMBU -5935 (-41.8%) | -8143 (57.35%) -8102 (-57.06%) | -10604 (-74.68%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 14199) The High Brown Fritillary occurs on woodland edges and in woodland clearings, where there is lush, rough vegetation with plenty of nectar plants. The eggs are laid on the leaves of violets (Vola spp.) and also on the bark of trees with violets growing near them. The tiny caterpillar remains within the ege during the winter, and from about the beginning of March, leaves the egg and starts feeding on violet leaves. It pupates on a twig or on a leaf close to the ground. The High Brown Fritillary has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 351 Arrgynnis adippe (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 352 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Argynnis niobe (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Niobe Fritillary a -2562 (-15.49%) | -3948 (-23.87%) SEDG -3322 (-20.09%) | -6045 (-36.55%) BAMBU_ | -5110 (-30.9%) | -7946 (-48.04%) -7117 (-43.03%) | -10289 (-62.21%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 16539) The Niobe Fritillary occurs on poor, dry grassland, often with woodland or scrub nearby. The eggs are laid on the woody stock of violets (Vola spp.). The caterpillar develops quickly within the egg, but does not hatch until after hibernation. Staying hidden during the day, it feeds on the violet plants at night. It pupates low down in the vegetation. The Niobe Fritillary has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.74). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 ir} o _ ah o = wv o sc o ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 353 Arrgynnis niobe (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 354 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Argynnis laodice (PALLAS, 1771) — Pallas’ Fritillary Cc Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -679 (-13.69%) -2209 (-44.53%) 201 (4.05%) -1794 (-36.16%) |GRAS | -443 (-8.93%) | -2242 (-45.19%) 960 (19.35%) | -3083 (-62.14%) 167 (3.37%) -3849 (-77.59%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4961) The Pallas’s Fritillary can be easily recognized by the noticeable jagged, white line, running across the underside of the hindwing. It can be found on damp, flower-rich grassland in open or deciduous forests or mixed woods. Both males and females are fond of sucking nectar from bramble blossom. The caterpillars live on Marsh Violet (Vola palustris) and Heath Dog Violet (V. canina). It has one generation a year and passes the winter in the egg stage. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - fad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ad 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Arrgynnis laodice (Nymphalidae) SEDG GRAS (B1) (A1Fl) 355 356 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Issoria lathonia (LINNAEUus, 1758) — Queen of Spain Fritillary .6—hcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -770 (-5.48%) 2836 (-20.17%) -2031 (-14.45%) | -3944 (-28.05%) -6471 (-46.02%) | -8591 (-61.1%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 14060) The large, silver-white mirrors on the underside of the hindwings, distinguish the Queen of Spain Fritillary from other fritillaries. The butterflies of the first brood that emerge at the end of the spring are quite small, but those of summer broods are often bigger. They can be found on a wide range of dry, flower-rich grasslands, wasteland and fields. The female deposits her eggs singly on the underside of the leaves of violets (V/zo/a spp.) on which the caterpillars later feed. On this nutritious diet the caterpillars grow very quickly, pupating low down in the vegetation. The Queen of Spain Fritillary has two to four generations a year, depending on the altitude and geographical position of the habitat. Hibernation takes place in the larval stage in temperate areas, but probably it can overwinter in other stages as well. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 10 02 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 6 1002 O86 6 10 oOo q = | Swe o2 O 2000 40m0 2 40000 2000 40000 2000 400) Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 357 Issoria lathonia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 358 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Brenthis ino (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) — Lesser Marbled Fritillary a -2704 (-19.61%) | -5157 (-37.4%) SEDG -4126 (-29.92%) | -7216 (-52.34%) BAMBU_ | _ -4906 (-35.58%) | -8460 (-61.36%) -6908 (-50.1%) -10472 (-75.95%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13788) The Lesser Marbled Fritillary occurs on damp to wet, flower-rich, rough vegetation, growing 1n the shelter of woodland. This can be situated in a valley, or on the banks of a stream, in abandoned meadows and swampy habitats. Because of changes in agricultural practices, this butterfly has been able to expand into some abandoned wet meadows. After continuing succession, these meadows will get overgrown by scrub and become unsuitable for the Lesser Marbled Fritillary. Eggs are laid singly or in pairs on the leaves and flowerheads of Meadowsweet (F24pendula ulmania), Goat’s-beard (Aruncus dioiwus), Great Burnet (Sanguisorba officinals) and brambles (Rubus spp.). It hibernates either as an ege or a caterpillar. The caterpillars feed at night, and in bad weather, also during the day. They pupate on the foodplant. The Lesser Marbled Fritillary is single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.87). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum — fed 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘1.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 359 Brenthis ino (Nymphalidae) oa i Fs ef 2080 2050 360 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Brenthis daphne (BrErcstTRAssER, 1780) — Marbled Fritillary .—ClcLee Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 1518 (27.55%) -1190 (-21.6%) BAMBU 1916 (34.78%) | -1365 (-24.78%) 73 (385%) | ATT aR SEDG 2653 (48.16%) | -1927 (-34.98%) BAMBU 2007 (36.43%) | -2868 (-52.06%) 1929 (35.02%) | -3676 (-66.73%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5509) The Marbled Fritillary occurs at the edges of woods or in scrub where brambles are growing. It takes nectar from thistles growing in rough vegetation. Eggs are deposited singly on the leaves and sepals of brambles (Rubus spp.), where they pass the winter, protected by withered leaves. In the spring, the small caterpillar feeds on the new, young leaves in the leaf buds, the later larval stages eating older leaves. The pupa is suspended from a leaf or branch of the foodplant. The Marbled Fritillary 1s single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Ow =a ee] my r=] o = Ow =o w my o todd 4000 0 ood 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe O68 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Brenthis daphne (Nymphalidae) 361 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 362 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Brenthis hecate ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Twin-spot Fritillary .—ClCcLee Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG 554 (14.53%) -1741 (-45.65%) -589 (-15.44%) | -2135 (-55.98%) |GRAS | -270 (-7.08%) | -2292 (-60.09%) SEDG -217 (-5.69%) | -2542 (-66.65%) BAMBU 554 (-14.53%) | -3243 (-85.03%) -508 (-13.32%) | -3442 (-90.25%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3814) The Twin-spot Fritillary can be found in flower-rich grassland, situated in the shelter of a woodland edge, or in scattered bushes. The most important foodplant is Meadowsweet (F¢dpendula ulmaria), although different species of Dorycnium, a leguminous plant, are named as a foodplant in Spain. It 1s single-brooded, and passes the winter in the egg or caterpillar stage. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.79). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 363 Brenthis hecate (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 364 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria eunomia (Esrrr, 1799) — Bog Fritillary eae ae -1220 (-15.34%) | -1399 (-17.59%) amas | ary | a SEDG -1843 (-23.17%) | -2291 (-28.8%) BAMBU -2410 (-30.3%) | -2747 (-34.54%) -3171 (-39.87%) | -3443 (-43.29%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 7954) The Bog Fritillary occurs on wet grasslands and marshy ground by streams, rivers, or lakes, and at the edges of raised bogs. Sometimes, the area they occupy is very small. They can be seen beside streams, flying slowly back and forth between small patches where its foodplant Common Bistort (Polygonum bistoria) is growing. The small caterpillars live together in a loosely spun nest, and hibernate when half-grown. However, the larger, later caterpillars are solitary and considerably more mobile, frequently leaving their foodplants in order to bask in the sun on another plant. The Bog Fritillary has one generation a year. There are two subspecies in Europe. The species’ range in central Europe is highly fragmented. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh Qa a =) a ee Pm Oe ae =a o= mH =e £5 8 Oo. 4 os 7 D> a a4 = a ger | ae qf. = eo wv x é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 365 Boloria eunonia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 366 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria euphrosyne (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Pearl-bordered Fritillary a -5707 (-26.51%) | -5782 (-26.86%) SEDG -4372 (-20.31%) | -4649 (-21.59%) BAMBU_ | -7044 (-32.72%) | -7118 (-33.06%) -8912 (-41.4%) | -9059 (-42.08%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 21529) The Pearl-bordered Fritillary occurs at the edges of woods and in clearings, in meadows and on pastures near scrub. Its habitats are usually dry and moderately rich in nutrients. The butterflies are quite mobile, leaving the habitat in search of nectar, visiting vegetation that ranges from very dry to wet. Most species of violet (V/zo4a spp.) can be used as a foodplant. The female lays her eggs singly, either on a foodplant or on a neighbouring plant. The caterpillars feed on the violet leaves, hibernating in a rolled-up, withered leaf, when half-grown. The species pupates on the foodplant, close to the ground. It has one to two broods per year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.73). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 0.2 0.6 Swe o2 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 367 Boloria euphrosyne (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 368 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria titania (Esrer, 1793) — Titania’s Fritillary Cc Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -377 (-19.74%) -766 (-40.1%) -151 (-7.91%) -525 (-27.49%) -580 (-30.37%) | -874 (-45.76%) 570 (29.84%) -926 (-48.48%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1910) Titania’s Fritillary occurs in grassy, open places at the edges of woodland, or in woodland clearings, or on grassland with scattered trees, mostly on damp to swampy ground, where its foodplant Snake- root or Common Bistort (Poheanum bistoria) 1s growing among tall flower-rich vegetation. Various violets (toda spp.) are also used as a foodplant. The female deposits her rather large eggs singly on either the foodplant, or on a plant nearby. The caterpillars go into hibernation in an early stage, and pupate at the end of the spring on a stalk, near to the ground. The species is single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 t.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0 2000 40000 2000 49m0 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Boloria titania (Nymphalidae) 369 370 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria selene ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Small Pearl-bordered Fritillary .—hCcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -4708 (-23%) -5037 (-24.61%) BAMBU -5114 (-24.99%) -5424 (-26.5%) -6291 (-30.74%) | -6771 (-33.08%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20468) The Small Pearl-bordered Fritillary, is found in damp to wet meadows or on lightly-grazed pastures. It is also found on raised bogs and in swampy habitats. Populations may occur in small, sheltered locations, but also in an open landscape. The butterflies can often be seen taking nectar, seeming to prefer thistles of various kinds. The eggs are laid on violets (Vzo/a spp.). When half-grown, the caterpillars hibernate in a rolled-up leaf of the foodplant. They pupate low down on a stalk in the litter layer. At high altitudes and in the north, the Small Pearl-bordered Fritillary is stngle-brooded, but has two generations a year elsewhere. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.73). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - 7 | il | | | dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 371 Boloria selene (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 372 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria chariclea (SCHNEIDER, 1794) — Arctic Fritillary .—hlcLUwe Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG -519 (-98.3%) -523 (-99.05%) 518 (-98.11%) | -521 (-98.67%) roras | steconiny | sa con20e SEDG 512 (-96.97%) -528 (-100%) BAMBU -526 (-99.62%) -528 (-100%) re © Jostein Engdal Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 528) The Arctic Fritillary occurs in a harsh environment, the windy, dry, rocky tundra in the far north of Europe, with a vegetation of grass and dwarf shrubs. The foodplant 1s not certain, but Casszope tetragon (Ericaceae) and violets (Voda spp.) may be used. The butterflies, which only appear for about two weeks a year, fly close to the ground, seeking the shelter of rocks or hollows. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 1). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Boloria chariclea (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 373 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 374 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria freija (BECKLIN, 1791) — Frejya’s Fritillary a -1581 (-28.71%) | -1593 (-28.93%) SEDG -3654 (-66.35%) | -3670 (-66.64%) BAMBU_ | -3324 (-60.36%) | -3340 (-60.65%) -4189 (-76.07%) | -4197 (-76.21%) © Jostein Engdal Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5507) Freyya’s Fritillary occurs in damp, peatland habitats. The female lays her eggs singly on Bog Whortleberry (Vaccinium uliginosum), and possibly also on Cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus), Bearberry (Arctostaphylos uva-ursi), A\pine Bearberry (A. alpinus), and Crowberry (Empetrum nigrum). The butterflies can also be seen on drier, grassy vegetation, searching for nectar, visiting Moss Campion (Szlene acauhs) frequently. Frejya’s Fritillary 1s stingle-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 375 Boloria freija (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 376 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria dia (LINNAEUS, 1767) — Weaver’s Fritillary | EE 1436 (17.22%) -2450 (-29.38%) anus [2105 | soca SEDG 1325 (15.89%) -4030 (-48.33%) BAMBU 892 (10.7%) -5229 (-62.71%) 605 (7.26%) -6394 (-76.69%) © Karl Heyde Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8338) In the northern part of its range, the Weaver’s Fritillary can be found on warm slopes with open woodland, scrub, and flower-rich grassland. More to the south, it 1s also found in damp, shady places. It can be very common in a traditional South-European agricultural landscape. The eggs are laid singly on various violets (Vzo/a spp.). The caterpillars hibernate when half-grown in the litter layer. They pupate deep down in the vegetation. Weaver’s Fritillary has two to three broods a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 377 Boloria dia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 378 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria thore (HtBNER, 1806) — Thor’s Fritillary SEDG -200 (-12.32%) -396 (-24.38%) -237 (-14.59%) -370 (-22.78%) arg -365 (-22.48%) -471 (-29%) SEDG 579 (35.65%) -405 (-24.94%) BAMBU 229 (14.1%) -437 (-26.91%) }GRAS 388 (23.89%) -549 (-33.81%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1624) In the Alps, Thor’s Fritillary can be found in flower-rich places, in clearings, or in sheltered “alcoves” at the edges of woods. It prefers damp, north-facing slopes, and is often found beside streams or in ravines. In the Scandinavian part of its range, the butterflies can be seen in clearings in birch woods and coniferous forests, and near mountain lakes, swampy places, in gullies, and river beds. The Yellow Wood Violet (Voda biflora) 1s 1ts major foodplant, but other violets are used as well. The female lays her eggs either on the foodplant, or on a neighbouring plant, and the caterpillars take nearly two years to develop. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 379 Boloria thore (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 380 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria frigga (BECKLIN, 1791) — Frigga’s Fritillary 6c Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -1825 (-30.7%) -1919 (-32.28%) BAMBU_ |} -1331 (-22.39%) | -1457 (-24.51%) -1842 (-30.98%) | -1949 (-32.78%) SEDG -3317 (-55.79%) | -3406 (-57.29%) -2550 (-42.89%) | -2690 (-45.25%) ae -3189 (-53.64%) | -3323 (-55.9%) © Jostein Engdal Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5945) Frigea’s Fritillary is mostly found on open bogs and 1n swampy areas with shrubs of Birches (Be/wla spp.) and willows (Sax spp.) scrub, in swampy areas in birch woods, and on bogs in coniferous forests. It is a rare fritillary that occurs locally and always in low to very low numbers. Despite its size, it is inconspicuous and can suddenly seem to vanish. The eggs are laid singly on Cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus). Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o Gadd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 381 Boloria frigga (Nymphalidae) an, | Wi wr =s bef = At tal 2080 2050 382 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria pales ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Shepherd’s Fritillary .hClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -359 (-23.68%) -493 (-32.52%) BAMBU -286 (-18.87%) | -463 (-30.54%) -520 (-34.3%) -631 (-41.62%) SEDG -533 (-35.16%) -808 (-53.3%) BAMBU | -417 (-27.51%) | -782 (-51.58%) -631 (-41.62%) -1002 (-66.09%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1516) The Shepherd’s Fritillary is a characteristic species of flower-rich sub-alpine and alpine grasslands and can even be found on quite heavily grazed pastures. They can occur in high numbers. At the end of the day, they often roost communally in damp vegetation with tall plants. Long-spurred Pansy (Viola cakarata) 1s the major foodplant, but Alpine Plantain (P/aniago alpina) and valerians (Valriana) are probably also used. Caterpillars are mostly found on plants growing in dry, rocky places. The Shepherd’s Fritillary has one generation a year and passes the winter in the larval stage. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘add 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Boloria pales (Nymphalidae) 383 384 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria aquilonaris (STICHEL, 1908) — Cranberry Fritillary .—CcLwE Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -2371 (-29%) -2668 (-32.63%) -2362 (-28.89%) | -2625 (-32.1%) -3717 (-45.46%) | -4025 (-49.22%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8177) The Cranberry Fritillary inhabits raised bogs and wet heaths, mostly in sheltered places at the edges of woods, or in clearings. The female lays her eggs singly on the leaves of Cranberry (Vaccinium oxycoccos) and Marsh Andromeda (Andromeda polifoha). Vhe caterpillar goes into hibernation in the moss layer just after hatching, only beginning to feed and grow the following year. However, in adverse conditions, the caterpillar may hibernate a second time. It pupates low down in the vegetation. It is usually single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh Qa i=] =) a f= Ss Oe Oe ae =a o= mH =e £5 3 Oo. 4 os 7 oo aes Ga” = = rH ae qe. = E gs wv x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 385 Boloria aquilonaris (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 386 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Boloria graeca (STAUDINGER, 1870) — Balkan Fritillary 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -239 (-49.69%) -353 (-73.39%) BAMBU -281 (-58.42%) | -370 (-76.92%) -271 (-56.34%) | -378 (-78.59%) SEDG -197 (-40.96%) | -370 (-76.92%) BAMBU -330 (-68.61%) -418 (-86.9%) -259 (-53.85%) | -433 (-90.02%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 481) The Balkan Fritillary can be found in the mountains on flower-rich grasslands, or on grassland with scattered bushes, and in clearings in woods. These butterflies usually fly close to the ground. Various violets (Vzo/a spp.) ate used as foodplant. The female lays her eggs either on the foodplant, or on a plant nearby. The Balkan Fritillary has one generation a year and hibernates as a small caterpillar. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum tad 4000 0 odd 40000 2000 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0. Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Boloria graeca (Nymphalidae) 387 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 2050 2080 388 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Vanessa atalanta (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Red Admiral 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -2683 (-11.89%) | -3874 (-17.16%) BAMBU -4288 (-19%) | -4857 (-21.52%) -4073 (-18.04%) | -5063 (-22.43%) SEDG -5008 (-22.18%) | -6755 (-29.92%) BAMBU -8963 (-39.7%) | -10381 (-45.99%) -11874 (-52.6%) | -13684 (-60.62%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 22574) The Red Admiral is a wide-ranging, migratory butterfly that in temperate areas can only survive mild winters. Each year, butterflies from southern Europe fly northwards, and in good years Red Admirals can be seen practically everywhere. The butterflies need a lot of nectar, which they get from flowers. They also feed on rotting fruit and at harvest time are often seen in orchards. They are also attracted to the resin oozing from trees. The Red Admiral lays its eggs on Stinging Nettle (Urtica diowa) and Pellitory (Panefaria spp.) in sunny, but not all too dry places. The caterpillars live alone or in small groups in small tent-like shelters made by spinning leaves together. The caterpillars pupate in a little tent of spun leaves. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.65). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Ow Za on | 4 | a e : ‘ 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 O 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 odd 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 389 Vanessa atalanta (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 390 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Vanessa cardui (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Painted Lady .6—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -1792 (-8.9%) -3883 (-19.28%) BAMBU_ | -4224 (-20.98%) | -5073 (-25.19%) -3350 (-16.64%) | -5180 (-25.73%) SEDG -2799 (-13.9%) | -5567 (-27.65%) BAMBU_ | _ -7054 (-35.03%) | -9170 (-45.54%) -9272 (-46.05%) | -11805 (-58.63%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20136) The Painted Lady is a visitor from the south, which 1s difficult to confuse with other butterflies. The black triangle on the tip of the forewing distinguishes it from the proper fritillaries. It is a migrant and cannot survive the winter in temperate climates. Each year, Western Europe is recolonized by butterflies from the south of Spain and Africa. In good years, the Painted Lady can be seen nearly everywhere, but otherwise seems to be absent. It visits a variety of flowers for nectar. The Painted Lady lays its eggs on very different foodplants. It prefers various thistles (C7rsium spp., Carduus spp., and Onopordum spp.), but also uses mallows (Masa spp.) especially in the south, Viper’s Bugloss (Echium vuleare), and Stinging Nettle (Uria diowa). The eggs are laid singly on the upperside of the leaves. The caterpillars feed in a shelter of loosely spun leaves. They pupate on the foodplant. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.63). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 400) 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Vanessa cardui (Nymphalidae) 391 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 392 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aglais io (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Peacock nae -1744 (-8.51%) -3602 (-17.59%) aa -2035 (-9.94%) | -4094 (-19.99%) SEDG -1718 (-8.39%) -5136 (-25.07%) BAMBU_ | -3006 (-14.68%) | -7383 (-36.04%) -5130 (-25.05%) | -10412 (-50.83%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 20483) In temperate Europe, the Peacock is one of the best-known butterflies, because of its striking appearance and common occurrence. There is no other diurnal butterfly with such noticeable eye- spots on the upperside of its wings. It is often seen 1n gardens and parks on herbaceous borders and flowering shrubs, looking for nectar. Eggs are laid on Stinging Nettle (Urtica diowa) in damp, shady places, sometimes at edges of woodland. Occasionally, Hop (Humulus lupulus) 1s also used. The caterpillars live gregariously in flimsy webs. Sometimes, plants are completely covered with spun silk, which serves as a home for tens of caterpillars. They leave the web to pupate on the foodplant. The adult butterfly goes into hibernation, hiding itself away in cold lofts and sheds. The species usually has one and sometimes a partial second generation per year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o tod 4000 0 Coded 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 06 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 393 Auglais to (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 394 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aglais urticae (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Small Tortoiseshell [rater | Neco -3835 (-17.58%) | -4718 (-21.62%) SEDG -4391 (-20.13%) | -5898 (-27.03%) BAMBU_ | _ -7863 (-36.04%) | -9692 (-44.42%) -10097 (-46.28%) | -12111 (-55.51%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 21818) The Small Tortoiseshell is a common and welcome guest in parks and gardens, and is sometimes very abundant. It occurs in low numbers in nearly all habitats. Its only foodplant is Stinging Nettle (Urtia dioica). Vhe foodplants are often growing on nutrient-rich, disturbed ground in the sun, such as in rough vegetation at the edges of meadows treated with manure or fertilizer. The eggs are laid in large batches on the underside of the nettle leaves. The caterpillars are gregarious, living in flimsy webs until they go their separate ways in the last larval instar. The species forms its pupa on the foodplants. The Small Tortoiseshell hibernates as a butterfly, and can often be found in the cold months hiding in houses or sheds. It is one of the first butterflies to be seen in the spring. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum toad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 fad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 395 Aglats urticae (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 396 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Nymphalis c-album (LINNAEus, 1758) - Comma 6 hc Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -811 (-3.79%) -2936 (-13.72%) -1943 (-9.08%) | -3916 (-18.3%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 21399) The Comma ts a butterfly of wood edges and clearings in wood, except in very dry places. It 1s easily recognized by the deep indentations 1n the margins of its wings, and the small white comma on the otherwise dusky underside of the hindwing. Eggs are laid on many different plant species, like Stinging Nettle (Urtica dioica), bramble (Rubus spp.), elm (U/mus spp.), willow (Sazx spp.), Hazel (Corylus avellana), and Hop (Humulus lupulus). The caterpillar is solitary, brownish-black with long spines and a broad white stripe on his back towards the rear, making it look like a bird dropping. The pupa hangs from the foodplant on a small stalk. The butterflies hibernate in hollow trees, hedgerows, and shrubs. In large parts of Europe it is double-brooded. However, in Scandinavia 1t only has one generation, and in warm locations in Spain and Greece, it can have three. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 397 Nymphals c-album (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 398 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Nymphalis egea (CRAMER, 1775) — Southern Comma CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 283 (15.9%) -368 (-20.67%) 309 (17.36%) -330 (-18.54%) 709 (39.83%) -784 (-44.04%) 1380 (77.53%) | -1161 (-65.22%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1780) The Southern Comma is a species of dry grasslands and dry scrub. The major foodplant is Common Pellitory (Panetana officinals), a plant that often grows on old walls, so that these butterflies are often found near buildings. They can often be seen, wings widespread, basking in the sun on walls and rocks, or on the ground. The caterpillars probably also feed on Stinging Nettle (Urtica dioica), willows (Safx spp.), and elms (Udzus spp.). The Southern Comma has two to three generations a year, and just as the ordinary Comma (P. c-a/bum), bibernates as an adult butterfly. It can therefore be seen early in the spring. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = ch a a = Ow Za uo sir} oO PS : : = : : : : ah o 2 w Oo ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Nymphals egea (Nymphalidae) 399 (B1) (A2) (A1Fl) 400 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Nymphalis antiopa (LINNAEUus, 1758) — Camberwell Beauty 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -886 (-5.5%) -2806 (-17.43%) BAMBU -1047 (-6.5%) | -2840 (-17.64%) -2083 (-12.94%) | -3979 (-24.71%) SEDG -805 (-5%) -3615 (-22.45%) BAMBU_ | -3635 (-22.57%) | -6079 (-37.75%) -5251 (-32.61%) | -8017 (-49.79%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 16102) The Camberwell Beauty is an imposing butterfly, which can fly large distances, although this only happens in some years. It occurs near patches of woodland in stream valleys, gullies, along woodland edges and on scrub. Because they are fairly mobile, they can be seen in open countryside far away from their foodplants. The female lays her eggs in large clusters around the twigs of birches (Be/u/a spp.), willows (Sa4x spp.), and poplars (Populus spp.). At first, the caterpillars live together in a communal web, becoming solitary when nearly fully-grown. The caterpillar is easily recognized, black and spiny with a double row of red spots on its back. They pupate on the bark of the foodplants. The adult butterflies hibernate in a hollow tree, wood pile or sust hidden in the vegetation, and wait for spring before mating. The Camberwell Beauty has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum toad 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 401 Nymphaks antiopas (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 402 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Nymphalis polychloros (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Large Tortoiseshell AMBU -6995 (-44.1%) | -8952 (-56.44%) -8220 (-51.83%) | -10595 (-66.8%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 15861) The Large Tortoiseshell is found in warm, sunny places in deciduous woods and near groups of trees. Elms (U/mus spp.), willows (Sazx spp.) and sometimes fruit trees or Hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna) are used as foodplants. The female, usually choosing a twig from the previous year, deposits a large group of eggs in a band around it. The caterpillars live together in silken tents until the last larval instar when they become solitary. They are fond of sitting on the sunny side of the foodplant or on branches in the sun. The caterpillar is dull, dark-grey with rust-coloured stripes along its back and sides, and long rust-brown spines. The pupa hangs from a twig in the foodplant, looking very like a withered leaf. The newly-emerged butterflies often roam. The Large Tortoiseshell hibernates as a butterfly in cool, dark places such as in a hollow tree. It has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.7). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o Minimum Swe 06 Swe 0.6 10 02 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 10 0.2 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o eck 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 403 Nymphaks polchloros (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 404 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Nymphalis xanthomelas (EsPrr, 1781) — Yellow-legged Tortoiseshell AMBU_ | -1738 (-42.28%) | -3683 (-89.59%) -2297 (55.87%) | -4031 (-98.05%) © Heiner Ziegler Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4111) The Yellow-legged Tortoiseshell occurs in lowland woodland in Eastern Europe, in damp, deciduous woods growing on flood plains, or on the wooded banks of streams and rivers. Different trees are used as foodplants, including willows (Saéx spp.), poplars (Populus spp.), elms (Udzus spp.), and Nettle Tree (Cedtés austrais). Until nearly fully-grown, the caterpillars inhabit large communal nests, which they spin in branches that hang over the water. The Yellow-legged Tortoiseshell hibernates as a butterfly hidden away in such places as hollow trees or wood piles. It 1s single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.87). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum I dd 4000 0 Coded 4000 0 ad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 405 Nymphals xanthomelas (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 406 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Nymphalis l-album (Esper, 1780) — False Comma SEDG 101 (1.93%) -1761 (-33.63%) 1514 (28.91%) | -850 (-16.23%) ae (1.72%) -1836 (-35.06%) SEDG 3311 (63.22%) | -1611 (-30.76%) BAMBU 3350 (63.97%) | -2324 (-44.38%) 3035 (57.95%) | -2884 (-55.07%) © Zdravko Kolev Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5237) The False Comma occurs in the lowlands of Eastern Europe, in deciduous or mixed woods. It prefers damp woods, and is found in clearings or at the wood edge. It is a mobile butterfly and a strong migrant. The female lays her eggs in the spring, clustered around the twigs of the foodplants which may be birches (Be/w/ia spp.), willows (Sax spp.), poplars (Populus spp.), or elms (U/vus spp.). The False Comma has one generation a year, and because it hibernates as a butterfly, can be seen for much of the year. This species is listed in Annexes I and IV of the Habitats’ Directive, where it erroneously is named N. vaualbum. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 407 Nymphals l-album (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 408 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Araschnia levana (LINNAEus, 1758) — Map .—hCcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -750 (-5.89%) -3045 (-23.93%) BAMBU -231 (-1.82%) | -2980 (-23.42%) 1214 (-9.54%) | -3737 (-29.37%) SEDG -2108 (-16.57%) | -5787 (-45.48%) BAMBU_ | -1661 (-13.05%) | -7261 (-57.06%) -2943 (-23.13%) | -9390 (-73.79%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12725) The Map its a common butterfly of woodland edges, coppices, hedgerows and wood banks. It normally has two generations a year, and the butterflies of the spring brood are predominantly orange, and those of the summer brood predominantly black on the upperside of the wings. The Map gets its name from the intricate pattern on the underside of its wings. These butterflies enjoy basking in the sun with their wings wide open, often on the ground. The Map has a dainty floating flight, but it settles again quite quickly. The foodplants are Stinging Nettle (Uria dioica) and Small Nettle (U. wrens). The eggs are deposited in short chains on the underside of the nettle leaves and look very much like threaded pearls. The caterpillars are gregarious, but do not spin a nest. They pupate on the foodplants, and pass the winter as a pupa. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.87). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 ‘did 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 409 Alraschnia levana (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 410 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euphydryas iduna (DALMAN, 1816) — Lapland Fritillary ae ee -1047 (-79.32%) -1057 (-80.08%) [ena a sry | as SEDG -1211 (-91.74%) | -1223 (-92.65%) BAMBU_ | -1276 (-96.67%) | -1280 (-96.97%) -1315 (-99.62%) | -1315 (-99.62%) © Otakar Kudrna Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1320) At lower altitudes in Lapland, this lovely fritillary occurs on flower-rich swampy areas and wet slopes with scattered birches. Above 500 m, it is found in drier rocky places. Compared to the other fritillaries that occur in Lapland, the Lapland Fritillary 1s remarkably colourful. It is one of the first arctic species to be seen, appearing practically as soon as the snow has melted. It flies quickly, zigzageing low over the vegetation. The female lays her eggs in small groups on plantains (Plantago spp.), Alpine Speedwell (Veronica alpina), Rock Speedwell (V._fruticans), and species of Vaccinium. The caterpillars live communally in small silken webs and hibernate there. They pupate in the spring. It has one brood a year. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 1). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Euphydryas iduna (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 411 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 412 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euphydryas cynthia ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Cynthia’s Fritillary .6—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -77 (-19.49%) -147 (-37.22%) -80 (-20.25%) -149 (-37.72%) GRAS | -132 (-33.42%) | -180 (-45.57%) SEDG -233 (58.99%) | -285 (-72.15%) BAMBU | -165 (-41.77%) | -249 (-63.04%) -210 (-53.16%) | -327 (-82.78%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 395) Cynthia’s Fritillary distinguishes itself from other fritillaries by the large amount of white on the basal parts of the upperside of the wings of the male. The butterflies occur on sub-alpine and alpine grassland with short, grassy vegetation and low-growing shrubs and in rocky areas. They fly quickly, close to the ground, and are fond of basking in the sun on rocks or bare patches of ground. The female lays her eggs in clusters under leaves of Alpine Plantain (Planiago alpina) and Long- spurred Pansy (Vola cakarata). The caterpillars are black and bristly with yellow bands between each segment. They can be very numerous and take two years to develop. The first hibernation takes place communally in a silken web. In the fourth larval instar, they hibernate a second time, solitarily under stones, where they later pupate. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Euphydryas cynthia (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 413 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 414 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euphydryas intermedia (MENETRIES, 1859) — Asian Fritillary Cc Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -24 (-8.92%) -127 (-47.21%) BAMBU -11 (-4.09%) -123 (-45.72%) -69 (-25.65%) -155 (-57.62%) SEDG -157 (-58.36%) | -231 (-85.87%) BAMBU -45 (-16.73%) -193 (-71.75%) [oras | -105 (-39.03%) -233 (-86.62%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 269) The Asian Fritillary can be seen searching for nectar or foodplants on open scrub, rich in herbaceous plants, or in clearings in open woodland, in flower-rich grassland, and on vegetation of dwarf shrubs above the tree-line. These butterflies only occur locally, although at times in large numbers. The female lays all her eggs at once, on the underside of a leaf of its foodplant, Blue Honeysuckle (Lonicera caerulea). The caterpillars live in communal webs, and in the autumn make a more substantial shelter of leaves, spun together with silk, in which to hibernate. They take two years to develop and have to hibernate twice. The fully-grown caterpillar leaves the nest after the second hibernation, and pupates on the foodplant or adjacent rocks. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum m™ o ° : : : : : todd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Euphydryas intermedia (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 415 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 416 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euphydryas maturna (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Scarce Fritillary a 2526 (35.26%) | -1754 (-24.48%) SEDG 3354 (46.82%) | -1971 (-27.51%) BAMBU 3987 (55.65%) | -2446 (-34.14%) 2476 (34.56%) | -3429 (-47.86%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 7164) The Scarce Fritillary occurs in clearings, where young ash trees are growing in open, mixed wood- land. The eggs are laid in one batch on a leaf of Ash (Fraxinus excelsior) or Aspen (Populus tremula), preferably at a height of around 4 m. The caterpillars build a nest of silk and leaves, and feed to- gether at first, while still quite small. They go into hibernation, remaining in the nest, which usually falls onto the woodland floor. In spring, they leave the nest and separate, spreading out in search of food. They use a variety of larval foodplants at this stage, including honeysuckle (Lonwera spp.), plantains (P/antago spp.), or privets (Ligustrum spp.). They pupate in the litter layer. The species has one generation a year although some of the caterpillars hibernate a second time before pupating. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.79). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 ood 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000) 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 10 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 417 Euphydryas maturna (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 418 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euphydryas desfontainii (GovartT, 1819) — Spanish Fritillary Cc Full dispersal No dispersal eae -1003 (-61.12%) | -1132 (68.98%) -1226 (-74.71%) | -1256 (-76.54%) -1593 (-97.07%) | -1622 (-98.84%) -1624 (-98.96%) | -1640 (-99.94%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1641) The Spanish Fritillary occurs on open, grassy places with stony soil and lots of shrubs. It uses various foodplants, such as Cephalania kucantha and C. syriaca, the teasels Dipsacus fullonum and D. comasus, scabtous (Scabiosa and Knautia spp.) and possibly knapweeds (Cen/aurea spp.). The female lays her eggs in small batches on the underside of leaves. The caterpillars live in a communal spun nest, also hibernating there. There is one brood a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o6 10 02 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Euphydryas desfontainit (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 419 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 420 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Euphydryas aurinia (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) — Marsh Fritillary lc Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -276 (-4.24%) -976 (-14.99%) 335 (5.14%) -786 (-12.07%) GRAS | -543 (-8.34%) | -1292 (-19.84%) SEDG -1055 (-16.2%) | -1908 (-29.3%) BAMBU_ | -1115 (-17.12%) | -2365 (-36.31%) -2488 (-38.2%) | -3659 (-56.18%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6513) The Marsh Fritillary occurs in very different types of habitat, like moist, sheltered grasslands, along the edges of raised bogs and on dry, calcareous grasslands. The foodplants are Devil’s-bit Scabious (Sacvisa pratense), Small Scabious (Scabiosa columbaria), Field Scabious (Knautia arvensis), and teasels (Dipsacus spp.). The eggs are laid in large clumps under the leaves. The caterpillars spin a substantial nest between the leaves of the foodplants, feeding in it, and also hibernating communally there. However, later they are solitary, and look for places deep in the vegetation in which to pupate. The Marsh Fritillary has one brood a year. This species is listed in Annex I of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Gadd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 421 Euphydryas aurinia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 422 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea cinxia (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Glanville Fritillary a -2647 (-20.06%) | -3961 (-30.02%) SEDG -4653 (-35.26%) | -5935 (-44.98%) BAMBU_ | -5706 (-43.24%) | -7293 (-55.27%) -6896 (-52.26%) | -8941 (-67.76%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13195) The Glanville Fritillary is found on many different types of flower-rich grasslands, both on calcareous and acid soils. This butterfly can survive on meadows and pastures, as well as on road verges and forgotten patches of vegetation, sometimes small habitats supporting large populations. Various plantains (Plintago spp.), speedwells (Veronica spp,), and knapweeds (Cenfaurea spp.) ate used as foodplants. The eggs are laid in large batches on the underside of the leaves. The caterpillars live eregariously in a spun nest, also hibernating in a thicker one when half-grown. The Glanville Fritillary, usually has one generation a year, partially a second one under favourable conditions. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh a a =) a i Pe Oe ef@eis o= mH =e £5 8 Oo. 4 of 7 D > a = ge ger | ae qf. = 2 o wv x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 423 Mehitaea cinxia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 424 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea phoebe (Gorze, 1779) — Knapweed Fritillary SEDG 2383 (30.98%) | -1579 (-20.53%) vais (837%) | 2181 (235% ae 1267 (16.47%) | -2473 (-32.15%) SEDG 2605 (33.86%) | -2630 (-34.19%) BAMBU 1417 (18.42%) | -4209 (54.71%) 1843 (23.96%) -5324 (-69.21%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 7693) The Knapweed Fritillary occurs in dry, open places with flower-rich vegetation. These grasslands are often 1n a sheltered situation at the edge of woodland, or of groups of shrubs. In the north of its range, the grasslands are mostly calcareous. The larval foodplants are knapweeds (Cen/aurea spp.). The female lays her eggs in large batches on the undersides of the leaves. The small caterpillars live eregariously in a silken nest, also hibernating together. Later, they become solitary, and when ready to pupate, choose somewhere close to the ground. The Knapweed Fritillary usually has two broods, but at higher altitudes and in the north of its range only one. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘said 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 oad 4000 Minimum Swe ‘1.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Mektaea phoebe (Nymphalidae) 425 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 426 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea aetherie (HUBNER, 1826) — Aetherie Fritillary .—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 51 (13.01%) -215 (-54.85%) 214 (54.59%) -248 (-63.27%) 2480 (632.65%) | -351 (-89.54%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 392) In Spain, the Aetherie Fritillary is found 1n clearings in disturbed Holm Oak (Quercus tkx) woodlands, where its foodplants, thistles (Czrsiwm spp.) and knapweeds (Cenlaurea spp.), such as Star Thistle (Centaurea cakitrapa), Brown Knapweed (C. jacea), and C. carratracensis gtow. The female lays her eggs in batches on the foodplants. The Aetherie Fritillary normally has one brood a year, and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum edd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0. Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 427 Melitaea aetherte (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 428 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea trivia ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Lesser Spotted Fritillary ri AMBU | -1820 (-35.03%) | -3718 (-71.57%) -1070 (-20.6%) -4285 (-82.48%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5195) The Lesser Spotted Fritillary occurs on flower-rich, grassy vegetation, in both dry and damp places, and on waste ground. Various mulleins (Verbascum spp.) are used as foodplants, including Aaron’s Rod (Verbascum thapsus), V. densiflorum and V. longifoium. The eggs are laid in batches on the underside of the leaves. The young caterpillars feed, gregariously in a communal web, where they also hibernate. After hibernation, they form smaller groups, and are often seen on the upper surface of the leaves. This species has one or two broods a year, depending on the climatic zone of its flight area. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 429 Mehtaea trivia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 430 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea didyma (EsPkER, 1779) — Spotted Fritillary a 1374 (11.08%) | -2686 (-21.66%) SEDG 1522 (12.27%) | -3397 (-27.4%) BAMBU -73 (0.59%) -5816 (-46.9%) -347 (-2.8%) -7258 (-58.53%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12400) The Spotted Fritillary can be found on poor grasslands, steppe-like vegetation, and dry, rough vegetation near rocks and on slopes. Further, it is also seen on fallow agricultural land, or at the edges of fields. It uses a wide variety of plants as foodplant, plantains (P/aniago spp.), toadflaxes (Linara spp.), speedwells (Verona spp.), foxgloves (Digilahs spp.), woundworts (S/achys spp.), valertans (Vakriana spp.), and mulleins (Verbascum spp.). The female lays her eggs in clumps on the underside of the leaves, near to the ground. At first, the caterpillars feed communally in a loosely spun shelter, but they separate quite soon, either into smaller groups, or become solitary. The caterpillars hibernate alone, or in small groups, in a spun web. They pupate low down on the foodplant or in the vegetation. The Spotted Fritillary has one to three broods a year, depending on the geographical location and altitude of its breeding ground. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum fad 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 aad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 431 Mehtaea didyma (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 432 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea diamina (LANG, 1789) — False Heath Fritillary .—hCcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -1169 (-13.54%) | -2382 (-27.59%) 171 (1.98%) -1648 (-19.09%) -1780 (-20.62%) | -4472 (-51.8%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8633) The False Heath Fritillary is found in sheltered, marshy habitats and damp woodland clearings. At higher altitudes, it is also found on rough, calcareous grasslands. Different sorts of valerian (Valriana spp.) are used as foodplants, the female depositing her eggs in large clusters on the underside of the leaves. The small caterpillars only feed for a short time before hibernating communally in a silken shelter. After hibernation, they separate, later pupating low down on the foodplant. The False Heath Fritillary usually has one brood a year, but at low altitudes it sometimes has two. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 A i 1.0 | « < < | q | Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 10 02 6.6 10 0.2 Swe 06 o2 L=] 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 dl Gadd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 433 Mehtaea diamina (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 434 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea deione (GEYER, 1832) — Provencal Fritillary .6—hCcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -832 (-34.3%) -1587 (-65.42%) -1517 (-62.53%) -1792 (-73.87%) fens | amar [sree cair9 -1236 (-50.95%) | -2071 (-85.37%) -1062 (-43.78%) | -2213 (-91.22%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2426) The Provengal Fritillary occurs in all sorts of flower-rich, grassy places; on flower-rich grasslands, both in damp and dry places, and on calcareous as well as acid soil, on flower-rich, grassy vegetation on the banks of rivers and streams, in scrub and at woodland edges. In Switzerland, at the extreme north of its distribution range, it is only found in dry, warm, bushy places. Its foodplants are toadflax (Linana spp.), snapdragons (Axtirrhinum spp.), and sometimes also foxgloves (Digitalis spp.). The female lays her eggs in small batches on the underside of the leaves. The caterpillars hibernate in a spun shelter. In most locations, this species has two broods a year, however in cooler places only one. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 ‘sad 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 60.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 435 Mehitaea detone (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 436 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea varia (MEYER-Dtr, 1851) — Grisons Fritillary a -66 (-13.04%) -298 (-58.89%) SEDG -232 (-45.85%) | -438 (-86.56%) BAMBU_ | -123 (-24.31%) | -355 (-70.16%) -249 (-49.21%) | -434 (-85.77%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 506) The Grisons Fritillary is a small fritillary that breeds on flower-rich sub-alpine and alpine grasslands and on sunny, grassy slopes. The adult butterflies visit mostly low plants for nectar, and the males are also seen on damp patches, excrement, and dead animals. The female lays her eggs in clusters on the foodplant. The caterpillars have been found on Alpine Plantain (P/antago alpina) and Achillea species, but Spring Gentian (Gentiana verna) and Stemless Trumpet Gentian (G. acaulis) are also named as foodplants. The caterpillars hibernate, pupating in June or July of the following year, the pupa usually hanging from a stone. However, at higher altitudes, development is slower, taking nearly two years, and they hibernate twice. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 437 Melitaea varia (Nymphalidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) Nanva 2080 2050 438 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea parthenoides (KEFERSTEIN, 1851) — Meadow Fritillary .6—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -263 (-8.26%) -1251 (-39.3%) BAMBU -467 (-14.67%) | -1326 (-41.66%) -805 (-25.29%) | -1756 (-55.17%) SEDG -1137 (-35.72%) | -2098 (-65.91%) BAMBU | -1391 (-43.7%) | -2457 (-77.19%) -1842 (-57.87%) | -2969 (-93.28%) © Henk Bosma Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3183) The Meadow Fritillary occurs in both dry and moderately damp habitats in many sorts of open, erassy, flower-rich places near woodland. Plantains (P/aniago spp.) are the main foodplants, especially Ribwort Plantain (P. anceolata). The eggs are laid in clusters on the underside of the leaves. The caterpillars feed and hibernate communally in a silken shelter, only separating in the last larval instar. They then look for a safe place to pupate, low down on the foodplant. The Meadow Fritillary usually has two generations a year, but only one 1n cool breeding grounds. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ce a iy] toad 4000 0 ead 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe ‘0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 439 Mehitaea parthenoides (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 440 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea aurelia (NickERL, 1850) — Nickerl’s Fritillary .—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG 335 (7.57%) -1527 (-34.52%) 2241 (50.67%) | -1117 (-25.25%) |GRAS | 801 (18.11%) -1641 (-37.1%) SEDG 625 (14.13%) | -2076 (-46.94%) BAMBU 1372 (31.02%) | -2361 (-53.38%) 490 (11.08%) -3288 (-74.34%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4423) Nickerl’s Fritillary occurs on open, dry grasslands and heaths on calcareous slopes and is very heat- tolerant. The female deposits her eggs in clusters on the underside of the leaves of its foodplant Ribwort Plantain (Plantago lanceolata). The caterpillars feed and also hibernate 1n communal silken nests. They pupate low down in the vegetation. Nickerl’s Fritillary has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh Qa a =) a =S 7 ean cf@es o= mH = £5 8 Oo. 4 ow 6 oo a = ge ger te | sme qf. = 2 o wv x é Po] = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 441 Mektaea aurelia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 442 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea britomartis (ASsMANN, 1847) — Assmann’s Fritillary .6—hCcLwkE Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 1268 (29.63%) -1324 (-30.93%) BAMBU 31 (0.72%) -2095 (-48.95%) 793 (18.53%) | -1987 (-46.43%) SEDG -1646 (-38.46%) | -3144 (-73.46%) BAMBU_ | -1961 (-45.82%) | -3747 (-87.55%) -2251 (-52.59%) | -4035 (-94.28%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4280) Assmann’s Fritillary occurs on warm grasslands and heath that are often situated at the edges of woodland, or neat groups of shrubs. Its foodplants are Ribwort Plantain (Plantago lanceolata), Yellow Rattle (Rhinmanthus minor, and the Speedwell (Veronica austriaca). Vhe female lays her eggs in batches on the underside of the leaves. The caterpillars feed communally in a silken nest, where they also hibernate. They then separate, later pupating low-down in the vegetation. This fritillary is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum edd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Mektaea britomartis (Nymphalidae) 443 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 444 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melitaea athalia (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) — Heath Fritillary .—hCcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 109 (0.7%) -2510 (-16.21%) BAMBU -610 (-3.94%) | -2730 (-17.63%) -1391 (8.98%) | -3658 (-23.63%) SEDG 560 (3.62%) -3902 (-25.2%) BAMBU -1542 (-9.96%) | -5975 (-38.59%) -2980 (-19.25%) | -7785 (-50.28%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 15482) The Heath Fritillary is found in many different sorts of biotope, ranging from dry to damp, grassy, flower-rich places, often situated near bushes or in woodland, or in clearings and along the edges of paths in woods. Its foodplants are plantains (Planiago spp.), cow-wheats (Melampyrum spp.), speedwells (Veronica spp.), foxgloves (Digilahs spp.), and toadflaxes (Linara spp.). The female lays her egos in clusters on the underside of the leaves. The caterpillars feed communally in silken nests, also hibernating together when half-grown. They then disperse over the plant, either into small groups, ot, mostly, become solitary. They pupate on the foodplant, and usually have one brood a year, except in the south, where they have two. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.79). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum mM o : OLGiLa tod 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 445 Mehtaea athalia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 446 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Limenitis populi (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Poplar Admiral SEDG -1234 (-10.89%) | -5291 (-46.69%) BAMBU_ | -1580 (-13.94%) | -6352 (-56.05%) -3162 (-27.9%) | -8315 (-73.38%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 11332) An encounter with the Poplar Admiral is one of those things that one never forgets. It is an impressive butterfly, and the woods it inhabits are areas of natural beauty. They are found in mixed woodlands with damp clearings, where its foodplants Aspen (Populus tremula) and Black Poplar (Populus nigra) grow. The female deposits her eggs one by one on leaves that are preferably situated in the sun, with more branches above them. The caterpillar feeds on the leaves and usually builds a hibernaculum, which is fastened tightly onto a twig with spun thread. It hibernates in the second larval instar, and in the spring eats large numbers of leaves before finally pupating, suspended from a leaf. The Poplar Admiral has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 ct a a =) a >= 7 Pe cfes o= mH =e £5 8 G. 4 of 7 D > cL m4 = = ger ae | re a Qe 2 o aw x é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 447 Limenitis popul (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 448 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Limenitis camilla (Linnaeus, 1764) — White Admiral =o 890 (10.08%) -1716 (-19.43%) SEDG -979 (-11.08%) | -3580 (-40.53%) BAMBU -161 (-1.82%) | -4232 (-47.91%) -1447 (-16.38%) | -6253 (-70.79%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8833) The White Admiral is a true woodland butterfly and is found in clearings and woodland rides. The female lays her eggs on young honeysuckle (Lonwera spp.) leaves, preferring those which are half in the shade. The caterpillars feed on the leaves in a characteristic way. Starting at the tip and working towards the stalk, they leave the main nerve intact, and use it to rest upon. The hibernation is in the second larval instar. To make the hibernaculum the remaining part of the leaf is spun into a little tube, and the leaf stalk is spun tightly onto a twig. After hibernating, the caterpillar feeds on the newly-emerged leaves. It pupates upside down on a twig, and has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Limenitis camilla (Nymphalidae) SEDG GRAS (B1) (A2) (A1Fl) 449 450 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Limenitis reducta (STAUDINGER, 1901) — Southern White Admiral [raat [ ne ateena 735 (12.86%) -1332 (-23.3%) SEDG 1180 (20.64%) | -1764 (-30.86%) BAMBU 897 (15.69%) | -2390 (-41.81%) ra ananny _| -9062 (ST 0TH © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5716) The Southern White Admiral occurs in warm to very warm places in woodland and scrub, often situated near streams, springs or other damp places. The eggs are laid on nearly all species of honeysuckle (Lonwera spp.). The caterpillars feed on the leaves in the manner characteristic of this genus, nibbling at the soft tissues while leaving the main nerve free. For hibernation, a small cradle is made from the remains of the leaf, which is secured to a twig with silk. When they come out of hibernation, they begin feeding on the young honeysuckle leaves. The caterpillar pupates suspended from a twig of the foodplant. This species has one brood a year North of the Alps but two in the Mediterranean region. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum si =| ° : : ? : ? todd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Sad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 451 Limenitis reducta (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 452 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Neptis sappho (Pattas, 1771) - Common Glider =o ae 1157 (44.38%) -1389 (-53.28%) SEDG 876 (33.6%) -1769 (-67.86%) BAMBU 1506 (57.77%) -2254 (-86.46%) }GRAS 1649 (63.25%) | -2435 (-93.4%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2607) The Common Glider inhabits damp, deciduous woodland, especially in river valleys. The butterflies often settle in the top of the trees to rest or bask 1n the sun, with their wings wide open, just like the Hungarian Glider (N. mulans). This butterfly has a characteristic flight, elegantly gliding from perch to perch. The caterpillars feed on Spring Pea (Lathyrus vernus) and Black Pea (L. niger). The Common Glider has two broods a year and hibernates as a small caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 0.6 Minimum Swe Swe Zt 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Neptis sappho (Nymphalidae) 453 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 454 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Neptis rivularis (Scoro.t, 1763) — Hungarian Glider a -1082 (-50.68%) | -1391 (65.15%) SEDG 74 (3.47%) -1285 (-60.19%) BAMBU | -458 (-21.45%) | -1520 (-71.19%) -121 (5.67%) | -1763 (-82.58%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2135) The Hungarian Glider is a butterfly of light, damp woodland, occurring in deciduous, as well as 1n mixed woods. It 1s similar to the White Admiral (Limenitis camilla), which is also a woodland butterfly. The butterflies are rarely seen drinking nectar from flowers. It glides from perch to perch with only an occasional flap of the wings. Goat’s-beard (Aruncus dioicus), Meadowsweet (Fikipendula ulmaria), Bridewort (Spiraea sahiifolia), and S. chamaedryfoha are used as foodplants. The female deposits the eges singly on the upperside of the leaves. After hatching, the tiny caterpillar first eats up the egoshell and then makes itself a shelter in the tip of the leaf. It only leaves the shelter to feed. In the autumn, it makes another shelter 1n which to hibernate. It has one brood a year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.87). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 455 Neptis rivularis (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 456 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Charaxes jasius (LINNAEUS, 1767) —'Two-tailed Pasha .—ClcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -760 (-38.4%) -1174 (-59.32%) BAMBU -879 (-44.42%) | -1198 (-60.54%) -840 (-42.45%) | -1367 (-69.08%) SEDG -795 (-40.17%) -1504 (-76%) BAMBU | -1121 (56.64%) | -1737 (87.77%) -1012 (51.14%) | -1918 (-96.92%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1979) With the whimsical patterning on the undersides of its wings and elegant little tails, the Two-tailed Pasha is one of the most beautiful European butterflies. It breeds 1n warm, dry places with many shrubs and trees where its foodplant, the Strawberry Tree (Arbutus unedo), 1s mostly abundant. The males defend their territory, attacking other insects. The butterflies can often be seen feeding on the juices of rotting fruit, such as figs, and are also attracted to alcoholic drinks. They are strong flyers, often roaming into areas where their foodplant is absent. The Two-tatled Pasha has mostly two broods a year. It hibernates as a caterpillar and pupates suspended from the foodplants. On Gibraltar, Samos and Cyprus, it also uses other foodplants. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Charaxes jasius (Nymphalidae) 457 458 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies ame metis (FREYER, 1829) — Freyer’s Purple Emperor || | Fattaispersat | No aispersa He SEDG 3014 (144.14%) | -141 (6.74%) 1346 (64.37%) | -589 (-28.17%) fas aio | em a0 212 (10.14%) | -1703 (-81.44%) 787 (37.64%) -1885 (-90.15%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2091) Freyer’s Purple Emperor is a butterfly of very warm, damp places. The butterflies can be found along wooded riverbanks, where its foodplant, White Willow (Sax alba) grows. The males and females meet each other at the tops of tall trees, and the females lay their eggs in small batches at the top of the tree, on leaves in the crown. The caterpillars grow quickly, and pupate suspended under a leaf or on a twig. The caterpillars from the brood that follows, hibernate. The butterflies have a varied diet. The females visit flowers for nectar, aphids for honeydew, and ripe fruit for the sugars. [he males are often found on damp ground, on dung and on carrion. The butterflies are also attracted to sap oozing from wounded trees. This species has two generations a yeat. This species is listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘edd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 fad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 459 Apatura metis (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 460 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Apatura ilia ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Lesser Purple Emperor a -633 (-6.36%) | -3412 (-34.26%) SEDG 1042 (10.46%) | -4137 (-41.54%) BAMBU 526 (5.28%) -5548 (-55.71%) -37 (-0.37%) -7270 (-73.01%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9958) The Lesser Purple Emperor is found in clearings and along paths in damp, deciduous woodland that is often situated in river valleys or on the banks of rivers. The butterflies are often seen near puddles on the road, and on dung from other animals. Espectally the males are attracted to strongly smelling cheese. Its foodplants are poplars (Populus spp.), and willows (Sadx spp.). The female, choosing rather small, not so robust trees, deposits her eggs on the upperside of leaves that are half in the shade, or in the sun. The half-grown caterpillar spins itself a little pad in the fork of a twig on which it htbernates. In the spring, it returns to the fresh buds and leaves to feed. It pupates suspended from the underside of a leaf or branch. The Lesser Purple Emperor has one to two broods a yeat. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 461 Apatura ila (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 462 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Apatura iris (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Purple Emperor a sc -2504 (-28.51%) | -4708 (-53.6%) SEDG -2825 (-32.16%) | -5511 (-62.74%) BAMBU -2969 (-33.8%) | -6641 (-75.6%) -3732 (-42.49%) | -8007 (-91.15%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 8784) The Purple Emperor inhabits damp, mature, deciduous woods with clearings in them. These woods often have different sorts of trees, stream valleys, and woodland rides. Male butterflies are often seen near puddles on the road and on the dung of other animals. They are also attracted to strongly smelling cheese. Various willows (Sax spp.) are used as foodplants, the female depositing her eggs preferably at the top of the tree, on the upperside of leaves that do not get the sun. The half-grown caterpillar spins itself a small cushion in the fork of a twig on which it hibernates. In the spring, it resumes feeding on the buds and fresh young leaves. It pupates, suspended from the underside of a leaf, and has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Apatura iris (Nymphalidae) 463 (B1) SEDG BAMBU (A2) oe aS Pa if GRAS (A1Fl) 464 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Kirinia roxelana (CRAMER, 1777) — Lattice Brown .6—hCcLUwE Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 257 (21.45%) -459 (-38.31%) 177 (14.77%) -438 (-36.56%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1198) The Lattice Brown inhabits open, dry woodland and dry scrub. In the hottest part of the day, the butterflies settle on tree trunks, hiding themselves away in the deep shade of bushes and thickets. They are also sometimes seen on dry riverbeds. The female deposits her eggs in crevices in the bark of trees and bushes. The caterpillars feed on grasses, such as meadow-grass (Poa spp.), quaking grass (Briza spp.), brome (Bromus spp.), and foxtail (Adopecurus spp.). The Lattice Brown has one brood a year. It hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to quite some extent (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh Qa = =) 2 i Pe Oe ces o= mn =o £5 8 Go. 4 of 6 D > a a4 = a ger a | ale qe. = 2 o w é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 4000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 465 Kirinia roxelana (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 466 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pararge aegeria (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Speckled Wood hc Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 111 (0.49%) -1693 (-7.4%) BAMBU -359 (-1.57%) -2025 (-8.85%) mas caer) | 2002 11.69 SEDG -686 (-3%) -3718 (-16.25%) BAMBU | -2115 (-9.24%) | -5993 (-26.19%) -3117 (-13.62%) -8080 (-35.31%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 22882) The Speckled Wood 1s a typical woodland butterfly. The woods may be deciduous, coniferous or mixed, and the butterfly occurs along woodland rides, in clearings and at wood edges. In the north, it occurs mostly in quite extensive areas of woodland, but in the south a line of trees can be sufficient to support a population. Each male claims his territory on a branch that gets the sun, projecting out of the crown of the tree, and waits there for a female to fly along. The foodplants are grasses that grow in woodland and damp grassland, such as fescues (Festuca spp.), false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), meadow-grasses (Poa spp.), cock’s-foot (Dactylus spp.), Purple Moor-grass (Modinea caeruka) and Hokus spp. The female deposits her eggs singly on the blades of grass. Hibernation takes place as a caterpillar or pupa, deep down in a tussock of grass. The Speckled Wood has two to three generations a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.65). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh J 0 sal Ow Za uo “ a tod 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pararge aegeria (Nymphalidae) SEDG (B1) 467 GRAS (A1Fl) 468 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lastommata megera (LINNAEUS, 1767) — Wall Brown a se -2133 (-12.9%) | -4415 (-26.71%) SEDG -3806 (-23.03%) | -5677 (-34.35%) BAMBU_ | -6087 (-36.83%) | -8167 (-49.41%) -7558 (-45.73%) | -9777 (-59.15%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 16529) The Wall Brown inhabits many different sorts of grassland, natural grasslands, as well as not all too intensively farmed land. The butterflies are mostly very active, the males very alert. They fly up when disturbed from rocks or walls on which they often bask in the sun, and are therefore conspicuous. The males have a broad scent-brand on their forewings. The female deposits her eggs on the blades of many different grasses, including fescues (Festuca spp.), false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), cock’s- foot (Dactylus spp.), bromes (Bromus spp.), and Crested Dog’s-tail (Cynosurus aristatus). When half- grown, the caterpillar hibernates in the litter layer, where it later, deep down, pupates. The Wall Brown has two to three broods a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe O46 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd dl Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 469 Lasiommata megera (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 470 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lasiommata petropolitana (Fasrictvs, 1787) — Northern Wall Brown hc Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -2647 (-28.91%) | -3215 (-35.11%) -3026 (-33.05%) | -3477 (-37.98%) ee -3135 (-34.24%) | -3656 (-39.93%) SEDG -2440 (-26.65%) | -3621 (-39.55%) BAMBU_ | -3879 (-42.37%) | -4711 (-51.45%) -4594 (50.17%) | -5721 (-62.48%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 9156) The Northern Wall Brown is found in woodland clearings and meadows in woodland, usually in relatively warm places with large rockmasses. The butterflies are fond of basking in the sun on warm rocks or on the ground. The eggs are laid on a number of grasses, including fescues (Festuca spp.), small-reeds (Ca/amagrostis spp.), and cock’s-foot (Dactylus spp.). The Northern Wall Brown hibernates either in the last larval instar, or as a pupa, and has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o tad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 471 Lasiommata petropolitana (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 472 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lastommata maera (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Large Wall Brown .—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -126 (-0.86%) -2562 (-17.45%) -1019 (-6.94%) | -6194 (-42.18%) -1106 (-7.53%) | -7698 (-52.42%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 14684) The Large Wall Brown occurs in quite different habitats. It is mainly found in warm, dry places near rocks, and poor grassland, or on rough vegetation near woodland edges. However, it can also occur on damp grassland and rough vegetation near wood margins. The butterflies need a lot of nectar, often visiting purple or pink flowers of thistles and other nectar-rich plants. The female lays her eggs on the blades of grasses that include Hokus spp., bents (Agrostis spp.), and small-reeds (Calamagrostis spp.). The caterpillars hibernate when half-grown in a grass tussock, and pupate later deep down in the vegetation. The Large Wall Brown has one brood a year in the north of its distribution range, and two a year in the south. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.75). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 0.2 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 473 Lasiommata maera (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 474 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Lopinga achine (LINNAEUS, 1763) — Woodland Brown 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Hee SEDG -645 (-9.66%) -2182 (-32.66%) 2968 (44.43%) | -893 (-13.37%) 4790 (71.71%) | -2501 (-37.44%) 3726 (55.78%) | -3777 (-56.54%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6680) The Woodland Brown is fond of warm, open places in damp, deciduous or mixed woods with well- developed shrub and herbaceous layers. The butterflies rarely visit flowers, preferring to feed on honeydew, moisture on buds, and sap oozing from wounded trees. The males often settle on puddles on the ground, while the females tend to stay in the very top of the trees. Eggs are laid on all sorts of erasses, including fescues (Fesiwca spp.), meadow-grasses (Poa spp.), small-reeds (Calamagrostis spp.), and false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), and also on sedges (Carex spp.). The half-grown caterpillar hibernates in a grass tussock, where later in the year it also pupates. The Woodland Brown has one brood a yeat. This species is listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: R Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum i =| o : : - : ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Lopinga achine (Nymphalidae) SEDG GRAS (B1) (A1FI) 475 476 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha tullia (MULLER, 1764) — Large Heath SEDG -4213 (-32.25%) | -6226 (-47.66%) BAMBU_ | -4915 (-37.63%) | -7441 (56.97%) -6014 (-46.04%) | -8747 (-66.97%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13062) The Large Heath inhabits raised bogs, wet heaths, swampy habitat and wet grasslands, often occurring on quite rough vegetation. As a consequence of land drainage remaining habitat patches are often small, and populations they contain very small indeed, making them difficult to detect. Main foodplants are Cotton-grass (Enophorum vaginatum), as well as other Eriophorum species. The female deposits her eggs singly on, or in the neighbourhood of, the foodplant. The caterpillars hibernate in the third or fourth larval instar, hidden in tussocks of grass. They also pupate in the tussocks of the foodplant. The Large Heath has one generation a year. The species already seems to have been affected by climate change and has declined severely at the southern edge of its range. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum mM o tod 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 Gdd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Coenonympha tulia (Nymphalidae) 477 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 478 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha oedippus (Fasricius, 1787) — False Ringlet iE Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG (-0.47%) -269 (-25.5%) 1170 (110.9%) | -109 (-10.33%) |GRAS | 168 (15.92%) -331 (-31.37%) SEDG 732 (69.38%) -387 (-36.68%) BAMBU_ | 2128 (201.71%) | -481 (-45.59%) wae @riswry, | 713 a7 © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1055) The False Ringlet is one of the rarest butterflies of Europe and ts declining at an alarming rate. Seeing one is therefore a very special event. The False Ringlet inhabits low-lying, grassy marshes and reed- beds that are usually situated in the shelter of woodland, creating a warm and humid environment. The butterflies fly very slowly and hardly ever migrate to nearby habitats. The eggs are deposited one by one on the blades of grasses, like meadow-grasses (Poa spp.), rye-grasses (Lofum spp.), hair- grasses (Deschampsia spp.) and Purple Moor-grass (Modinea caeruka). The caterpillars hibernate half- grown in the tussock, where they pupate as well. The False Ringlet has one generation a year. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a ~ oH r= a = Ow =o uw m4 Oo a : : : , : ; = ' 4 o = cs o m4 o ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Coenonympha oedippus (Nymphalidae) 479 480 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha rhodopensis Ewes, 1900 — Eastern Large Heath Cc Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 332 (43.74%) -514 (-67.72%) BAMBU 125 (16.47%) -592 (-78%) 197 (25.96%) -603 (-79.45%) SEDG 351 (46.25%) -606 (-79.84%) BAMBU 432 (56.92%) -705 (-92.89%) 322 (42.42%) -737 (-97.1%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 759) The Eastern Large Heath occurs mainly on grasslands above the tree-line. It is also sometimes found in clearings in damp woodland. The caterpillars feed on fescues (Festuca spp.), Blue Moor-grass (Sesleria albicans), cotton-grasses (Eriophorum spp.), White Beak-sedge (Rhynchospora alba), and Beaked Sedge (Carex rostrata). This species has one generation a year and passes the winter as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum he o 2 be o sad 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Coenonympha rhodopensis (Nymphalidae) 481 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 482 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha arcania (LINNAEUS, 1761) — Pearly Heath .6—hCcLUwk Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -389 (-2.87%) -2771 (-20.46%) -1104 (-8.15%) | -3319 (-24.51%) fens [as can [ area -3556 (-26.26%) | -7474 (-55.18%) -4819 (-35.58%) | -9350 (-69.03%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13544) The Pearly Heath is found on dry, to moderately damp, grasslands and grassy places at the edges of woodland or scrub. The Pearly Heath is common in some areas. The males can often be found, perched in scrub, basking in the sun, from where they chase females that pass by. In the evening, the butterflies gather together to roost communally in scrub or at wood margins. Meadow-grasses (Poa spp.), bents (4grosts spp.), melicks (Medca spp.), fescues (Festuca spp.), and many other grasses are used as foodplants, the preferred species differing between regions. The female lays her eggs one by one or in short rows, on blades of grass. When half-grown, the caterpillar hibernates 1n a tussock of grass, also pupating there later, deep down in the tussock. This species has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe o.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 483 Coenonympha arcania (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 484 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha glycerion (BORKHAUSEN, 1788) — Chestnut Heath Cc Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 735 (5.73%) -2415 (-18.82%) BAMBU -174 (-1.36%) -2688 (-20.94%) 90 (0.7%) -2849 (-22.2%) SEDG 2334 (18.18%) | -3666 (-28.56%) BAMBU 609 (4.74%) -5395 (-42.03%) -1143 (-8.91%) | -7723 (-60.17%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12835) The Chestnut Heath inhabits dry to damp grasslands in woods, meadows, poor grassland, calcareous grasslands, and open marshy habitats. These grasslands are sometimes quite intensively grazed, as can happen on calcareous grassland. However, if grazing is absent, for a few years, change in the grassland does not seem to affect the butterflies. The butterflies do not fly very much, and only cover limited distances. The eggs are laid one by one in short rows on the blades of grasses, such as fescues (Festuca spp.), Lor-grass (Brachypodium pinnatum), Purple Moor-grass (Moknea caerulea), Upright Brome (Bromus erectus), and Crested Dog’s-tail (Cynosurus cristatus). Pupation takes place deep down in the vegetation. The Chestnut Heath mostly has one or two generations a year, depending on altitude and latitude. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 485 Coenonympha ghcerton (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 486 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha gardetta (PRUNNER, 1798) — Alpine Heath .—hCcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -167 (-17.75%) -312 (-33.16%) -97 (-10.31%) -279 (-29.65%) 354 (37.6280 -213 (-22.64%) | -475 (-50.48%) -466 (-49.52%) | -662 (-70.35%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 941) The Alpine Heath is mostly found on open, sub-alpine and alpine grasslands, and on grasslands with scattered bushes and trees. It can occur in high numbers in some places. The female lays her eggs, mostly one by one, on grass stalks. The caterpillars hibernate, and pupate at the beginning of the summer, the pupa hanging from a plant, usually close to the ground. It is single-brooded. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.97). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 tH a a f= = - 6 2 i ces 5=n =o £5 3 : , Ba. a : : ay u os 7 © aes = wih SR 4 seh a = = 2 o iw Sa ‘0 = o2 edd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 odd 4000 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 487 Coenonympha gardetta (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 488 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha dorus (EsPER, 1782) —- Dusky Heath 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -508 (-18.27%) -1864 (-67.03%) -856 (-30.78%) | -2128 (-76.52%) -927 (-33.33%) | -2297 (-82.6%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2781) The Dusky Heath is a butterfly of dry, grassy vegetation, such as found on rocky slopes in low scrub, thickets and in woodland clearings. Different grasses are used as foodplant, including bent (Agrostis spp.), and Sheep’s-fescue (Festwa ovina). It has one generation a year and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = ms a a = ow =a ie] c oa 3 i : f 7 : tT! o 2 Ow $0 LP) ™ o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 Gd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Coenonympha dorus (Nymphalidae) 489 490 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha hero (LINNAEuvs, 1761) — Scarce Heath .—hCcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -1416 (-39.97%) | -1929 (-54.45%) BAMBU 941 (26.56%) -845 (-23.85%) -882 (-24.89%) | -2331 (-65.79%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3543) The Scarce Heath occurs in damp to wet grassy meadows in or at the edges of woods. Sometimes, they occur away from woods in drier places or in flower-rich grassland. The butterflies are fond of settling in grass, and do not fly far, nor very often. Among the grasses they use as food are Tufted Hair-grass (Deschampsia cespitosa), and Bearded Couch (EAmus caninus). When half-grown, the caterpillar hibernates in a grass tussock, where it later also pupates. This species has one generation a year. It should be noted that this species 1s severely declining. (Many dots on the map actually represent already extinct populations.) This species 1s listed in Annex IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 10 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 10 0.2 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Coenonympha hero (Nymphalidae) 491 492 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha leander (Esper, 1784) — Russian Heath CL Full dispersal No dispersal | SEDG 225 (27.21%) | -425 (51.39%) | BAMBU | -399 (-48.25%) | -597 (-72.19%) g 574 (-69.41%) | -746 (-90.21%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 827) The Russian Heath is found both on dry, as well as somewhat damp, grassy vegetation, at wood margins and in woodland clearings and on grasslands. The butterflies have a rather low flight. At rest, just like other heaths, the Russian Heath keeps its wings closed. Sheep’s-fescue (Festuca ovina) and Slender False-brome (Brachypodium syhaticum) are among the grasses used as foodplants. This species has one brood a year and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 0.6 Swe 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 493 Coenonympha leander (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 494 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Coenonympha pamphilus (Linnatus, 1758) — Small Heath .—hCcLUwkE Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -1709 (-7.66%) -3476 (-15.58%) BAMBU -2727 (-12.22%) | -3878 (-17.38%) -2920 (-13.09%) | -4439 (-19.9%) SEDG -1994 (-8.94%) | -5095 (-22.84%) BAMBU_ | -4197 (-18.81%) | -7614 (-34.13%) -6105 (-27.36%) | -10438 (-46.79%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 22310) The Small Heath is a common species of nearly all types of grassland. It is mostly found on fairly open, poor meadows and pastures. The female deposits her eggs one by one, or in rows, on the blades of most grasses, including meadow-grasses (Poa spp.), Sweet Vernal-grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum), fescues (Festuca spp.), and bents (Agrostis spp.). The caterpillar grows very quickly on nutritious grasses, but can also use poor grasses, growing then more slowly. In the third or fourth larval instar, the caterpillar hibernates deep down in a tussock of grass, where it also later pupates. The number of broods a year is between one and three and depends on the geographical position of the habitat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.66). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a dd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Coenonympha pamphilus (Nymphalidae) 495 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 496 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyronia tithonus (LINNAEUS, 1771) — Gatekeeper .—hCcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -385 (-6.01%) -1451 (-22.63%) -48 (-0.75%) -1437 (-22.41%) -1165 (-18.17%) | -2649 (-41.32%) -2622 (-40.9%) | -3899 (-60.82%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6411) The Gatekeeper occurs on many different types of grassland. Mostly, it chooses rather rough, dry to damp vegetation, situated beside woodland or scrub, or not far from them. The butterflies are fond of basking in the sun on scrub, and are often seen visiting flowers. The female lays her eggs singly on the leaf-blades of nearly all soft grasses, such as Cock’s-foot (Dactylus spp.), fescues (Festuca spp.), bents (Agrostis spp.), and Rye-Grass (Lokum spp.). The caterpillar avoids bright sunlight, and feeds mostly on grasses growing 1n the shade. When half-grown, it hibernates in a tussock of grass. It completes its growth the following year, and pupates low down in the vegetation. The Gatekeeper is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 Swe E 10 0.2 0.6 10 o2 fi. 1.0 oOo = | Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 0.2 0.6 Swe o2 O 2000 400 2 40000 2000 40000 2000 400) Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 497 Pyronia tithonus (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 498 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyronia cecilia (VALLANTIN, 1894) — Southern Gatekeeper .—hCcLee Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -794 (-33.79%) -1382 (-58.81%) -925 (-39.36%) | -1406 (-59.83%) |GRAS | -939 (-39.96%) | -1613 (-68.64%) SEDG -891 (-37.91%) | -1781 (-75.79%) BAMBU_ | -1206 (-51.32%) | -2042 (-86.89%) -1037 (-44.13%) | -2280 (-97.02%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2350) The Southern Gatekeeper can be found on dry grasslands, rocky slopes with grassy vegetation, in open scrub, and now and then in woodland clearings. The foodplants are grasses, probably Tufted Hair-grass (Deschampsia cespitosa), although this is still uncertain. This butterfly species has one or two broods a year, and passes the winter as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 499 Pyronia cecilia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 500 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pyronia bathseba (Fasrictus, 1793) — Spanish Gatekeeper 6c Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG -696 (-20.11%) -1954 (-56.46%) -1440 (-41.61%) -2070 (-59.81%) -2178 (-62.93%) | -3150 (-91.01%) -2079 (-60.07%) | -3404 (-98.35%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3461) The markings on the Spanish Gatekeeper are brighter than those of the other gatekeepers. The butterflies are mostly found on dry, rather rough, grassy vegetation with trees or bushes in the neighbourhood. The caterpillars feed on grasses, especially false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), but also probably bromes (Bromus spp), and meadow-grasses (Poa spp.). The Spanish Gatekeeper is single-brooded, and passes the winter in the caterpillar stage. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 o2 0.6 Swe 6 1002 O86 o6 1.0 oOo = | 7 | S Swe o2 i=] 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gdd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 501 Pyronia bathseba (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 502 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Aphantopus hyperantus (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Ringlet CO Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -1583 (-9.49%) -3790 (-22.73%) -1875 (-11.25%) | -4274 (-25.64%) -2340 (-14.04%) | -4840 (-29.03%) -7118 (-42.69%) | -12005 (-72.01%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 17662) The Ringlet can be found in grassy places with bushes, woodland clearings, and on grasslands bordering woods. The habitats vary from dry to rather wet, such as at the edge of a raised bog. The butterflies are avid visitors of such flowers as thistles, knapweed, and other plants rich in nectar. The caterpillars feed on nutrient-rich grasses, such as cock’s-foot (Dactylus spp.), false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), fescues (Festuca spp.), and cat’s-tails (Phkum spp.). The female usually just releases her eggs, letting them fall into the vegetation, either while perched or in flight. The caterpillars hibernate, hidden in a grass tussock, and when they resume feeding, only do so at night. They also pupate deep down in the vegetation. The Ringlet has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o sad 4000 0 ood 4000 0 oad 4000 0 Gad 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Swe 6 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Abphantopus lyperantus (Nymphalidae) 503 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 504 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Maniola jurtina (LINNAEUus, 1758) — Meadow Brown .6—hCcLUwkE Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -1330 (-6.1%) -3022 (-13.85%) BAMBU_ | -2884 (-13.22%) | -4188 (-19.19%) -2986 (-13.68%) | -4489 (-20.57%) SEDG -4349 (-19.93%) | -6262 (-28.7%) BAMBU_ | -6627 (-30.37%) | -9090 (-41.66%) -9317 (-42.7%) | -11852 (-54.32%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 21820) The Meadow Brown is a common butterfly of many different sorts of grassland, both natural grasslands and not too intensively used farmland, and semi-natural grassland. The butterflies are noticeable by their lively behaviour. The female deposits her eggs on a large number of grasses, including species of fescue (Festuca spp.), false-brome (Brachypodium spp.), cock’s-foot (Dactylus spp.), dog’s-tail (Cynosurus spp.), and brome (Bromus spp.). Sometimes, she also just drops the eggs in flight. The caterpillar goes into hibernation 1n the litter layer when half-grown. It also pupates deep in the litter layer. The Meadow Brown has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.7). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) a oa =] ze o ™ o te 4000 0 ns 4000 0 oo 4000 0 ee 4000 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Maniola jurtina (Nymphalidae) 505 "a ae r | cr (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 506 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hyponephele lycaon (Kin, 1774) - Dusky Meadow Brown .6—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -805 (-11.69%) -2069 (-30.06%) BAMBU -3974 (-57.73%) | -4245 (-61.66%) -2698 (-39.19%) | -3454 (50.17%) SEDG -3582 (-52.03%) | -4792 (-69.61%) BAMBU_ | _-5739 (-83.37%) | -6138 (-89.16%) -5461 (-79.33%) | -6406 (-93.06%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6884) The Dusky Meadow Brown occurs in many different sorts of grassland. It is important that its habitat is dry and warm. In the north of its range, the grassland is steppe-like, and more to the south the butterfly 1s found on closer vegetation. It uses various grasses as foodplant, including fescues (Festuca spp.), false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), and Stipa species. When the female is about to lay an egg, she first alights on the ground and walks to a foodplant, then she chooses a low-hanging grass blade on which to deposit an egg. The caterpillar hibernates in the first larval instar and only starts feeding in the spring. At first, it feeds mainly during day, but when the weather gets too warm, it only feeds at night. Pupation takes place deep in the vegetation or litter layer. The Dusky Meadow Brown 1s single- brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.78). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = ms r= a = Ow Za i] sir} oO : : : es : . : Ow $0 oo ~ o dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 507 HAlyponephele hraon (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 508 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hyponephele lupina (Costa, 1836) — Oriental Meadow Brown 6c Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -389 (-13.75%) -1308 (-46.24%) -1228 (-43.41%) | -1547 (-54.68%) |GRAS | -981 (-34.68%) | -1690 (-59.74%) SEDG -1383 (-48.89%) | -1845 (-65.22%) BAMBU | -2198(-77.7%) | -2482 (-87.73%) -2354 (-83.21%) | -2720 (-96.15%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2829) The Oriental Meadow Brown is a butterfly of warm, dry places. The butterflies can be found on dry grasslands with scattered bushes, or dry scrub vegetation, and in light woodland. At rest, their wings are almost always closed. They have a rapid flight, often keeping to the shadow cast by trees or bushes. Grasses, such as meadow-grasses (Poa spp.) and fescues (Fes/uca spp.) are used as foodplants. The species has one generation a year and hibernates in the larval stage. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh =] o = Ow Za uo pity oa = : : : 2 : : he o 2 w o aad 4000 0 Coded 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 509 Hyponephele lupina (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 510 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia ligea (Linnaeus, 1758) — Arran Brown 6c Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -2958 (-23.74%) | -3875 (-31.09%) BAMBU -2415 (-19.38%) | -3187 (-25.57%) -4075 (-32.7%) | -4737 (-38.01%) SEDG -2798 (-22.45%) | -3895 (-31.26%) BAMBU_ | _ -4435 (-35.59%) | -5388 (-43.24%) -5485 (-44.01%) | -6418 (-51.5%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12462) The Arran Brown occurs in sheltered, grassy, flower-rich places in woodland. These places are usually rather damp and in deep shade. The female deposits her eggs on the withered blades of various grasses, including cock’s-foots (Dactylus spp.), hatr-grasses (Deschampsia spp.), fescues (Festuca spp.), and Heath-grass (Danthonia decumbens). Sedges (Carex spp.) ate also used. The egg hibernates, and the following year, the caterpillar feeds and grows, and in the last larval instar hibernates again. In the summer, the caterpillar pupates. The Arran Brown 1s single-brooded, but the life cycle takes two years to complete. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ie =| - . = : : as | oad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 511 Erebia lgea (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 512 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia euryale (Esrrr, 1805) — Large Ringlet 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -524 (-25.05%) -825 (-39.44%) BAMBU -435 (-20.79%) | -769 (36.76%) -791 (-37.81%) | -1100 (-52.58%) SEDG -326 (-15.58%) | -1147 (54.83%) BAMBU | -275 (-13.15%) | -1218 (-58.22%) -500 (-23.9%) | -1541 (-73.66%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2092) The Large Ringlet occurs in light woodland, in grassy clearings 1n woods, and above the tree-line on grassland with rather tall vegetation. In the Jura Mountains, these butterflies can be found at the edge of raised bogs, and at an altitude of 1000 m, also in light, damp woods. The Greek populations also seem to prefer damp places. Both the males and females visit flowers for their nectar and the males can often be seen drinking on damp ground or on dung. Various grasses are used as foodplant, including Blue Moor-grass (Seskria albicans), \Wood Meadow-grass (Poa nemoralis), Red Fescue (Festuca rubra), Sheep’s-fescue (F. ovina), Calamagrostis varia, and also sedges (Carex spp.). It takes two years for the development from egg to butterfly. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 513 Erebia euryale (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 514 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia eriphyle (FRreYER, 1836) — Eriphyle Ringlet .—ClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -57 (-14.81%) -144 (-37.4%) BAMBU -33 (-8.57%) -141 (-36.62%) -99 (-25.71%) -172 (-44.68%) SEDG -168 (-43.64%) | -250 (-64.94%) BAMBU -76 (-19.74%) -251 (-65.19%) -121 (-31.43%) | -304 (-78.96%) © Josef Pennerstorfer Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 385) The Eriphyle Ringlet occurs locally in the Alps and 1s one of the smaller ringlets. It is a characteristic species of the north-facing slopes, occurring on rough, herbaceous vegetation in the alpine and sub- alpine zones, where there are plenty of alder (A/mus spp.) saplings. They are often found in places where the conspicuous plants Adenostyks aliariae and Masterwort (Peucedanum ostruthium) are growing. It uses Sweet-Vernal-grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum) and Tufted Hair-grass (Deschampsia cespitosa) as foodplants. Some of the caterpillars leave the egg before the winter, but the rest hibernate in the egg and emerge in the spring, when they all start feeding on grasses. In the autumn, they hibernate again and moult twice before pupating at the end of May. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 515 Erebia eriphyle (Nymphalidae) (1a) 04s (ZV) Nanva (ld) SVH9 2080 2050 516 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia manto ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — Yellow-spotted Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -258 (-19.07%) -466 (-34.44%) ns cam | a9 can |GRAS | -357 (-26.39%) -548 (-40.5%) SEDG -368 (-27.2%) -668 (-49.37%) BAMBU -228 (-16.85%) | -661 (-48.85%) -402 (-29.71%) | -850 (-62.82%) © Josef Pennerstorfer Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1353) The Yellow-spotted Ringlet is a species of cool and cold conditions. Above the tree-line it occurs on open mountain meadows, and below it inhabits damp, flower-rich grasslands and woodland glades. The female deposits her eggs one at a time on the blades of various grasses, such as fescues ( Festuca spp.) and cat’s-tails (Phkum spp.). It hibernates twice, the first time as an egg or a tiny caterpillar, without having fed at all. During the next summer, the caterpillar develops as far as the penultimate stage and then hibernates again. It pupates in the following summer. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o fad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 517 Erebia manto (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 518 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia epiphron (KNocu, 1783) — Mountain Ringlet .—ClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -747 (-23.03%) -1068 (-32.93%) -761 (-23.47%) | -1057 (-32.59%) |GRAS | -980 (-30.22%) | -1321 (-40.73%) SEDG 524 (-16.16%) | -1317 (-40.61%) BAMBU_ | -717 (-22.11%) | -1526 (-47.06%) -679 (-20.94%) | -1837 (-56.65%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3243) The Mountain Ringlet inhabits mountainous areas that are snow-covered in winter. It is found on damp grasslands and rough vegetation, often in the shelter of a slope or woodland edge. The female lays her eggs on various grasses and sedges, including fescues (Festuca spp.), Mat-grass (Nardus stricta), and Heath-grass (Danthonia decumbens). The caterpillar hibernates twice. It completes the first larval instar before hibernating the first tume. By the end of the summer it reaches the last but one stage before hibernating again. The following year, it pupates in the summer, and the butterfly emerges. The Mountain Rinelet is a very variable butterfly with many local and regional subspecies and forms. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000) 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 519 Erebia epiphron (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 520 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia pharte (HUBNER, 1804) — Blind Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -284 (-20.94%) -487 (-35.91%) -212 (-15.63%) | -429 (-31.64%) |GRAS | -337 (-24.85%) | -542 (-39.97%) SEDG -428 (-31.56%) | -679 (-50.07%) BAMBU_ | -269 (-19.84%) | -666 (-49.12%) -426 (-31.42%) | -832 (-61.36%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1356) This Ringlet owes its rather odd name to the absence of eye-spots on both surfaces of the wings. The Blind Ringlet occurs both on dry and damp grasslands, especially where the vegetation is tall, and in grassy places at the edge of woodland. Above the tree-line, they occur mainly on dry vegetation. They have various foodplants, depending on the habitat. In dry places, the caterpillars can be found on Mat-grass (Nardus stricta), Festuca quadnflora, and Sheep’s Fescue (F ovina), and in damper places in the shade on Red Fescue (F rubra), Glaucous Sedge (Carex flacca), and C. ferruginea. The caterpillar hibernates twice, pupating at the end of May between spun grass stalks. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o fea 4000 0 Cored 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 60.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Erebia pharte (Nymphalidae) SEDG BAMBU GRAS (B1) (A2) (A1Fl) 521 522 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia melampus (FuEss.i, 1775) — Lesser Mountain Ringlet .—ClcLee Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -333 (-23.43%) -444 (-31.25%) BAMBU -244 (17.17%) | -389 (-27.38%) -413 (-29.06%) | -520 (-36.59%) SEDG -499 (-35.12%) | -740 (52.08%) BAMBU -379 (-26.67%) | -686 (-48.28%) 588 (-41.38%) | -917 (-64.53%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1421) The Lesser Mountain Ringlet occurs in many different biotopes. It can be found on wet grasslands, pastures and meadows, on dry, nutrient-poor grasslands in light woodland, on dry grasslands with bracken, and above the tree-line on alpine grasslands. Because of the wide choice in biotope, this butterfly is common throughout the Alps. In the time up to hibernation, the caterpillars feed during the day. After hibernating, they are only active at night. They can be found on Wood Meadow-grass (Poa nemorahs), Sweet Vernal-grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum), and Sheep’s Fescue (Festuca ovina). The development from egg to butterfly takes one year. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘edd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 523 Erebia melampus (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 524 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia aethiops (EsPer, 1777) — Scotch Argus 6—hlcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -968 (-21.4%) -1883 (-41.63%) BAMBU | -519 (-11.47%) | -1542 (-34.09%) 7395 cane) | 2206 922% SEDG 491 (10.86%) | -1899 (-41.99%) BAMBU 316 (6.99%) -2318 (-51.25%) 548 (12.12%) | -2876 (-63.59%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4523) The Scotch Argus can be found in a wide variety of habitats. It inhabits flower-rich grasslands and grassy woodland clearings, and can also be found on heathland, bogs and marshy areas with very open woodland. Many different grasses can be used as a foodplant, such as Purple Moor-grass (Molinea caerulea), Blue Moor-grass (Seslria albicans), Tor-grass (Brachypodium pinnatum), Cock’s-foot (Dactylus glomerata), fescues (Festuca spp.), cat’s-tails (Phkum spp.), Sweet Vernal-grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum), and Quaking Grass (Briza media), and also sedges (Carex spp.). The caterpillar hibernates in the second or third larval instar. It pupates in the litter layer, and is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.82). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 525 Erebia aethiops (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 526 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia triaria (PRUNNER, 1798) — de Prunnet’s Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 70 (5.99%) -590 (-50.47%) BAMBU 7 (0.6%) -608 (-52.01%) -66 (-5.65%) -690 (-59.02%) -255 (-21.81%) | -877 (-75.02%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1169) In the Alps, de Prunner’s Ringlet is found on very dry grasslands with scattered rocks, whereas more to the south it occurs in clearings in woods growing on rocky ground, in Spain in clearings in pine forests on limestone. Its foodplants are Sheep’s-fescue (Festuca orina), Smooth Meadow-grass (Poa pratensis), Alpine Meadow-grass (P. a/pina), and Feather-grass (Supa pinnata). \t hibernates as a caterpillar and has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh ra o = Ow a] uw sir ao a ‘edd 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) SwG 08 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 527 Erebia triarna (Nymphalidae) ia | | ara alysis (1a) 504s Wo » am (ZV) Nanva (4b) SVH9 2080 2050 528 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia embla (BEcKLIN, 1791) — Lapland Ringlet .—hClcL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -835 (-21.95%) -1141 (-29.99%) BAMBU -782 (-20.56%) | -1145 (-30.1%) -806 (-21.19%) | -1207 (-31.73%) SEDG -1583 (-41.61%) | -1864 (-49%) BAMBU_ | -1605 (-42.19%) | -2010 (52.84%) -2238 (-58.83%) -2592 (-68.14%) © Jostein Engdal Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3804) The Lapland Rineglet inhabits bogs and marshes with sedges and grasses, and scattered groups of willows and myrtle. The marshes are often situated in coniferous or birch woods. Its foodplants are probably sedges (Carex spp.), Tufted Hatr-grass (Deschampsia cespitosa), and Bog Hait-grass (D. selacea). These butterflies are difficult to find because they are shy and always occur in low numbers. Also, their habitat is very inaccessible. The development of the Lapland Ringlet takes two years. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.97). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 aad 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 529 Erebia embla (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 530 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia disa (BECKLIN, 1791) — Arctic Ringlet .—CcLEe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -1068 (-72.41%) -1242 (-84.2%) BAMBU -956 (-64.81%) | -1166 (-79.05%) -1025 (-69.49%) | -1249 (-84.68%) SEDG -1285 (-87.12%) | -1446 (-98.03%) BAMBU_ | -1347 (-91.32%) | -1470 (-99.66%) rats 952% | 472 (990% © Jostein Engdal Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1475) Just like the Lapland Rineglet (E. emb/a), the Arctic Ringlet is a marsh butterfly, but the two species do not overlap, the Arctic Ringlet avoiding lowland marshes. It occurs above 350 m altitude, on open marshes in woods, namely marshes with a low cover of grasses and sedges without trees or bushes, although surrounded by birch trees. It also occurs at lakesides and near small streams and is also seen in woodland clearings in its search for nectar. Its foodplants are grasses. It takes two years for the egg to develop into a butterfly. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 o.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Erebia disa (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 531 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 532 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia medusa (Fasrictus, 1787) — Woodland Ringlet .6—hCcLUwkE Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -943 (-22.87%) -1907 (-46.24%) -151 (-3.66%) | -1635 (-39.65%) GRAS | -1416 (-34.34%) | -2279 (-55.26%) SEDG 304 (7.37%) -2199 (-53.32%) BAMBU 106 (2.57%) -2660 (-64.5%) -111 (-2.69%) | -3288 (-79.73%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4124) The Woodland Ringlet occurs in many different biotopes. It can be found on damp, flower-rich grasslands and rough vegetation near or in woodland, in marshes, but also on calcareous grasslands. Its foodplants are various grasses, such as Purple Moor-grass (Modnea caerulea), fescues (Festuca spp.), Tor-grass (Brachypodium pinnatum), Upright Brome (Bromus erectus), and Wood Millet (Mikum effusum), and also sedges (Carex spp.). The caterpillar is active at night and mostly hibernates when half-grown, but at very high altitudes it may hibernate twice. It pupates in the litter layer. The development takes between one and two years. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 Cried 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 533 Erebia medusa (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 534 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia alberganus (PRUNNER, 1798) — Almond-eyed Ringlet 6c Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -208 (-20.29%) -328 (-32%) 35.02% | 258 (257% |GRAS | -244 (-23.8%) -352 (-34.34%) SEDG -427 (-41.66%) | -585 (57.07%) BAMBU_ | -276 (-26.93%) | -483 (-47.12%) 513 (-50.05%) | -685 (-66.83%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1025) The Almond-eyed Ringlet is found on sub-alpine grasslands, and on, sometimes damp, grasslands, in woodland clearings or in the shelter of woods. The butterflies can often be seen on flowers, drinking nectar. On warm days, the males congregate to drink on damp patches. In the Alps, the caterpillars feed on Sheep’s Fescue (Festuca ovina) and Sweet Vernal-grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum). They hibernate when half-grown, and pupate at the end of the following spring. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.87). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum fad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 535 Erebia alberganus (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 536 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia pluto (PRUNNER, 1798) — Sooty Ringlet SEDG -189 (-21.4%) -306 (-34.65%) -145 (-16.42%) | -274 (-31.03%) -239 (-27.07%) | -353 (-39.98%) SEDG -437 (-49.49%) | -597 (-67.61%) BAMBU_ | -285 (-32.28%) | -467 (-52.89%) -468 (53%) -648 (-73.39%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 883) The Sooty Ringlet is a butterfly of mountainous areas with everlasting snows and glaciers. It occurs high up, on steep screes and moraines, breeding on patches with a mosaic of sparse vegetation and small stones. The female deposits the pale-coloured eggs on mostly light-coloured stones. Once the caterpillar has emerged from the egg, it sometimes has to travel some distance before finding one of the grasses it uses as a foodplant. Caterpillars have been found on the fescues Festuca halleri and F. guadriflora, as well as on Annual Meadow-grass (Poa annua). The caterpillars take two or possibly three years to develop. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘sad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Erebia pluto (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 537 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 538 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia gorge (EsPrr, 1805) — Silky Ringlet ae a A .—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG -452 (-26.49%) -578 (-33.88%) -375 (-21.98%) | -538 (-31.54%) -602 (-35.29%) | -717 (-42.03%) SEDG -587 (-34.41%) | -884 (51.82%) BAMBU -534 (-31.3%) -900 (-52.75%) GRAS -721 (-42.26%) | -1128 (-66.12%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1706) The Silky Ringlet can be found on screes, sunny, rocky slopes, and dry grasslands with scattered rocks. The butterflies often bask in the sun on stones, but, their wings closed, they are hardly noticeable. They are rarely seen visiting flowers. The caterpillars are found on fescues (Fes/uca spp.), Alpine Meadow-grass (Poa alpina), P. minor, and Blue Moor-grass (Sesleria albicans). The caterpillars take two years to develop. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Gadd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 aad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 539 Erebia gorge (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 540 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia mnestra (Esper, 1805) — Mnestra’s Ringlet .—hClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 72 (25.71%) -119 (-42.5%) -169 (-60.36%) | -216 (-77.14%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 280) Mnestra’s Ringlet occurs on sub-alpine and alpine grasslands, especially dry grasslands on steep, sunny slopes. The butterflies are seldom seen on flowers, drinking nectar. The female lays her eggs close to the ground on dry stalks of grass. The plain green caterpillars have been found on fescues (Festuca spp.) and also on Blue Moor-grass (Ses/eria albicans). They hibernate twice. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum BEE Ow =o on a] a fad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Erebia mnestra (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 541 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 542 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia epistygne (HUBNER, 1819) — Spring Ringlet .—hlcLUwe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -137 (-79.65%) -162 (-94.19%) -165 (-95.93%) | -170 (-98.84%) -166 (-96.51%) -172 (-100%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 172) The Spring Ringlet appears in the early spring in grassy, rocky clearings in light woodland. The Spanish populations in the Montes Untversales occur in clearings or on level ground in light pinewoods on calcareous soil, on short, grassy vegetation with low shrubs and scattered rocks. ‘The main foodplant is Sheep’s-fescue (Festuca orina), but other fescues and meadow-grasses (Poa spp.) have also been named as foodplants. FE. epzstygne has one generation per yeat. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.91). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = ms =] a = Ow =o uo cu oa a kt f dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.8 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Erebia epistygne (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 543 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 544 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia ottomana (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1847) — Ottoman Brassy Ringlet CCL Full dispersal No dispersal is SEDG -69 (-10.94%) -240 (-38.03%) |GRAS | -95 (-15.06%) -304 (-48.18%) 193 (30.59%) -212 (-33.6%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 631) In the mountains, the Ottoman Brassy Ringlet occurs on slopes and level ground with grassy vegetation. At lower altitudes, it is found in woodland clearings. The caterpillars feed on Sheep’s- fescue (Festuca ovina) and other fine-leaved grasses. It is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to quite some extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe o2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Erebia ottomana (Nymphalidae) 545 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 546 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia tyndarus (Esper, 1781) — Swiss Brassy Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -24 (-5.52%) -205 (-47.13%) BAMBU 51 (11.72%) -160 (-36.78%) 125i) | 20a C4099 SEDG -251 (57.7%) -357 (-82.07%) BAMBU -80 (-18.39%) -272 (-62.53%) -200 (-45.98%) | -339 (-77.93%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 435) The Swiss Brassy Ringlet occurs in woodland clearings on grassy, rocky slopes, and on screes. The caterpillars feed on different fescues (Pes/uca spp.) and on Mat-grass (Nardus stricta). The caterpillars hibernate when they are still small. They develop further the following spring, pupating sometime between June and August. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 aad 4000 0 Gadd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 2050 Erebia tyndarus (Nymphalidae) 2080 SEDG 547 (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 548 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia cassioides (REINER & HOHENWARTH, 1792) (complex) — Common Brassy Ringlet © Kars Veling SEDG -337 (-28.66%) -404 (-34.35%) -320 (-27.21%) -378 (-32.14%) -457 (-38.86%) SEDG -656 (-55.78%) | -746 (-63.44%) BAMBU -525 (-44.64%) | -630 (-53.57%) -647 (-55.02%) | -747 (-63.52%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1176) The Common Brassy Ringlet encompasses 4 taxa which are included in this species complex: arvernensis, casstoides, macedonica, carmenta. Vhey represent isolates in different glacial refugia. Their separate species status however is still uncertain and requires verification. The butterflies live on dry, grassy slopes, rocky slopes with patches of grassy vegetation, and scree. The females lay their eggs on dry stalks of grass, close to the ground. The species’ foodplants are various fescues (Fes/uca spp.). The caterpillars hibernate in the first or second larval instar and pupate the following year between June and August. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: R. Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche (orange areas) Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o faaid 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000) Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 60.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 Swe 0.6 0.2 Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 549 Erebia cassioides (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 550 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia pronoe aa 1780) — Water Ringlet a fe SEDG -407 (-24.23%) -570 (-33.93%) 25 cay | aT2 cana -586 (-34.88%) | -692 (-41.19%) SEDG -315 (-18.75%) | -721 (-42.92%) BAMBU -319 (-18.99%) | -774 (-46.07%) -466 (-27.74%) | -1011 (-60.18%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1680) The Water Ringlet is found especially on flower-rich grasslands, rocky, grassy slopes, and near woodland. The female usually deposits her eggs close to the ground, on dry stalks of grass. The caterpillars feed on Sheep’s Fescue (Festuca ovina), EF: quadriflora and vatious meadow-grasses (Pod spp.). The caterpillars hibernate in the first larval instar and pupate in June or July of the following year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum todd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 551 Erebia pronoe (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 552 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia styx (FREYER, 1834) — Stygian Ringlet .—ClcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -200 (-46.62%) -227 (-52.91%) BAMBU -186 (-43.36%) | -206 (-48.02%) -255 (-59.44%) | -264 (-61.54%) SEDG -247 (-57.58%) | -282 (-65.73%) BAMBU_ | -242 (-56.41%) | -280 (-65.27%) -287 (-66.9%) -361 (-84.15%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 429) The Stygian Ringlet occurs on warm, steep, rocky slopes with grassy vegetation and sometimes scattered bushes, often on limestone. Its foodplant is Blue Moor-grass (Seslra albwans). In Switzerland, it takes two years for the egg to develop into a butterfly. The tiny caterpillar goes into hibernation immediately after leaving the egg, only starting to feed the next spring. In the autumn, they again hibernate, pupating in June or July of the following year. In other areas at lower altitudes, they can complete their life cycle 1n one year. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘said 4000 0 Codd 4000 0 Gad 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 o2 Swe 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 553 Erebia styx (Nymphalidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) nNanva (ld bY) SVH9 2080 2050 554 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia montana (PRUNNER, 1798) — Marbled Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG -77 (-12.13%) -282 (-44.41%) BAMBU 25 (3.94%) -224 (-35.28%) -112 (-17.64%) | -303 (-47.72%) SEDG -349 (54.96%) | -530 (-83.46%) BAMBU_ | -186 (-29.29%) | -409 (-64.41%) -332 (-52.28%) -512 (-80.63%) © Neil Thompson Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 635) The Marbled Ringlet is mainly found on warm, rocky slopes with patches of grassy vegetation in flower-rich grasslands, and occasionally in woods, for the most part on limestone. When the butterflies settle on stones or on the ground with their wings closed, they are hardly noticeable. However, they can be seen visiting flowers, which they do regularly. The caterpillars hibernate in the first larval instar and in the spring begin feeding on fescues (Festwca spp.), or on Mat-grass (Nardus stricta). Vhe caterpillars have been found on the larger tussocks growing in the shelter of rocks. They pupate in June or July. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 555 Erebia montana (Nymphalidae) (ZV) Nanva (ld) SVH9 2080 2050 556 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia neoridas (BotsDUVAL, 1828) — Autumn Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -10 (-1.48%) -473 (-69.87%) BAMBU -1 (-0.15%) -488 (-72.08%) 219 (32.35%) -560 (-82.72%) © Matt Rowlings Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 677) The Autumn Ringlet occurs in woodland clearings and on grassy vegetation with scattered bushes. The caterpillars feed on different grasses, such as Crab-grass (Digilaria sanguinalis), Alpine Meadow- Grass (Poa alpina), Smooth Meadow-grass (Poa pratensis), Annual Meadow-grass (P. annua), Sheep’s- fescue (Festuca ovina), and Meadow Fescue (FP. pratensis). This species is single-brooded and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.93). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o Ey wo = i tl = a o = aa m re) Ges a? & 3 = - fim wo © ow o fo iomnill oa = c 7 5 Es fa = oO ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 odd 4000 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Swe Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 557 Erebia neoridas (Nymphalidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) Nanva (4b) SVH9 2080 2050 558 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia melas (HERBST, 1796) — Black Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 179 (27.54%) -158 (-24.31%) 121 (18.62%) -231 (-35.54%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 650) The Black Ringlet can be found on rocky slopes with patches of grassy vegetation, in dry and sub- alpine and alpine grasslands, and sometimes in clearings in coniferous woods. The butterflies fly close to the ground, often resting with wings widespread. The caterpillars feed on Sheeps’-fescue (Festuca ovina), and possibly other grasses. The Black Ringlet has one generation a year and hibernates in the larval stage. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.84). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a - ms a a = Ow Za wo sir Oo 3 : ; ; ; tH o 2 Ow so LP) ™ o ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 559 Erebia melas (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 560 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia oeme (Esrer, 1805) — Bright-eyed Ringlet CL Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -195 (-17.81%) -357 (-32.6%) BAMBU -32, (-2.92%) -276 (-25.21%) -298 (-27.21%) -427 (-39%) SEDG -260 (-23.74%) | -538 (-49.13%) BAMBU | -155(-14.16%) | -523 (-47.76%) -413 (-37.72%) | -732 (-66.85%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1095) The Bright-eyed Ringlet is often found on damp to wet grasslands, sometimes with lots of sedges in the vegetation. However, it also occurs on dry grasslands, rocky slopes and in woodland clearings. The grass in some of these habitats may be quite tall. Several different foodplants are known, including sedges (Carex spp.), rushes (Juncus spp.), Purple Moor-grass (Moknea caerulea), Quaking Grass (Briza media), Red Fescue (Festuca rubra), and meadow-grasses (Poa spp.). The caterpillars take one or two years to develop, depending on the altitude of the breeding ground. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘aad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 561 Erebia oeme (Nymphalidae) (ZV) Nanva (ld LV) SVH9 2080 2050 562 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia meolans (PRUNNER, 1798) — Piedmont Ringlet .—hcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -89 (-3.23%) -1130 (-40.97%) ; BAMBU -153 (5.55%) | -1103 (-39.99%) -342 (12.4%) | -1389 (-50.36%) SEDG -360 (-13.05%) | -1687 (-61.17%) BAMBU -644 (-23.35%) | -1813 (-65.74%) -1145 (-41.52%) | -2198 (-79.7%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2758) a Z = a + » “3 The Piedmont Ringlet occurs on a variety of grassy places in and near woods. The female lays her eges on many different grasses, including fescues (Festuca spp.), Wavy Hair-grass (Deschampsia flexuosa), Mat-grass (Nardus stricta), and several sorts of bent (4grosts spp.). At very high altitudes, when the caterpillars are half-grown, they hibernate in the litter layer. They may hibernate twice before pupating deep down in the vegetation. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum tad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 Cad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 563 Erebia meolans (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 564 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Erebia pandrose (BORKHAUSEN, 1788) — Dewy Ringlet .6—hCcLwkE Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -950 (-21.14%) -1006 (-22.39%) -779 (-17.34%) | -830 (-18.47%) -1128 (-25.11%) | -1265 (-28.15%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4493) The Dewy Ringlet is a common species. In Scandinavia, it is mostly found in damp places where grass and bushes are growing, often near small streams, and in more mountainous areas on grassy slopes. In Central Europe, the butterflies occur on stony, alpine meadows with a vegetation of short grasses and dwarf shrubs. These butterflies have a characteristic, undulating flight. This gives the impression that they are not using their hindwings, and are just about to fall to the ground. The female lays her eggs on different grasses, such as fescues (Festuca spp.), meadow-grasses (Poa spp.), Blue Moor-grass (Sesleria albicans), ot Mat-grass (Nardus stricta). In most parts of its range, the caterpillars hibernate twice. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: LR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 06 sh a a =) a >S 7 Pm On ae | o= mH =e | £5 3 Go. 4 of 7 D> o ng = a Ba” i=] Qe eo ) * é Po] = 4 o O 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 565 Erebia pandrose (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 566 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melanargia russiae (Esrrr, 1784) — Espetr’s Marbled White 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -781 (-51.55%) -1158 (-76.44%) BAMBU_ | -988 (-65.21%) | -1169 (-77.16%) -982 (-64.82%) | -1275 (-84.16%) SEDG -752 (-49.64%) | -1352 (-89.24%) BAMBU_ | -1026 (-67.72%) | -1441 (-95.12%) -752 (-49.64%) | -1504 (-99.27%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1515) Esper’s Marbled White is a butterfly of grassy vegetation, occurring both on acid and calcareous soils. The butterflies are often found on dry, rocky slopes but also in grassy glades in woods. They are fond of visiting thistles and like plants for their nectar. Various meadow grasses (Poa spp.) and false bromes (Brachypodium spp.), Feather Grass (Stipa pinnata), and Aegilops geniculata are used as foodplants. The caterpillars hibernate and pupate on the ground in the spring. This species is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.85). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 567 Melanargia russiae (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 568 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melanargia galathea (LINNAEUs, 1758) — Marbled White hc Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 884 (6.33%) -2681 (-19.21%) 912 (6.53%) -3015 (-21.6%) -22 (0.16%) -6633 (-47.52%) © Peter Ginzinger Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13958) The Marbled White inhabits many different types of poor grassland that has not been fertilized. It is common in the southern part of its range, also on road verges and in agricultural areas. The butterflies need a lot of nectar, and are often seen on plants in bloom. Various grass species, mostly fine-leaved, are used as foodplants. The female usually just drops her eggs into the grass, sometimes while flying. The first instar caterpillar hibernates without eating first. In periods of hot weather, the other instars can also go without food. They pupate deep in the vegetation. The Marbled White has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 1.6 | a a =) a eee ee cf@es o= mH =e £5 8 Oo. 4 of 7 oo cL nq = = ger | e- : a @e- 2 o wv x é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 4000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gd id Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 569 Melanargia galathea (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 570 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melanargia lachesis (HUBNER 1790) — Iberian Marbled White .—hClcL Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -863 (-61.91%) -1047 (-75.11%) -1054 (-75.61%) | -1131 (-81.13%) |GRAS | -1045 (-74.96%) | -1232 (-88.38%) SEDG -1055 (-75.68%) | -1324 (-94.98%) BAMBU_ | -1129 (-80.99%) | -1374 (-98.57%) -910 (-65.28%) | -1394 (-100%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1394) The Ibertan Marbled White occurs in flower-rich, dry to damp grasslands, near dry scrub, and along woodland edges and hedgerows. Grasses such as Annual Meadow-grass (Poa annua), Meadow Fescue (Festuca pratensis), Compact Brome (Bromus madritensis), and Brachypodium retusum are used as foodplants. This species is single-brooded and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘sad 4000 0 odd 4000 0 aad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 571 Melanargia lachesis (Nymphalidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) Nanva (ld) SVH9 2080 2050 572 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melanargia larissa (EsPErR, 1784) — Balkan Marbled White .—hCcLe Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG IZA 1.33%} -497 (-44.34%) -25 (-2.23%) -534 (-47.64%) roras | 2e@iwy | Som cans SEDG 246 (21.94%) -586 (-52.27%) BAMBU -410 (-36.57%) | -873 (-77.88%) -249 (-22.21%) | -1008 (-89.92%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1121) The Balkan Marbled White occurs on dry grasslands, rocky slopes, in open scrub, and in grassy clearings in woods. Sometimes, these butterflies are even seen in villages. The caterpillars feed on different grasses. This butterfly is single-brooded and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o “4 o ‘dd 4000 0 ed 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 o2 1.0 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 a Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 573 Melanarsia larissa (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 574 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melanargia arge (SULZER, 1776) — Italian Marbled White a 719 (116.53%) | -305 (-49.43%) SEDG 776 (125.77%) | -331 (-53.65%) BAMBU 767 (124.31%) | -409 (-66.29%) 655 (106.16%) | -447 (-72.45%) © Otakar Kudrna Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 617) The Italian Marbled White occurs locally in small populations. It occurs 1n rocky, calcareous places on patches of dry, grassy vegetation among loose thickets of Prickly Juniper (Juniperus oxycedrus), Rosa sempervirens, the bramble Rubus ulmifolus, and Thymus capitatus, with a few scattered trees. The caterpillars feed on grasses such as Feather Grass (Spa pinnata), and the false-brome Brachypodium retusum. he Italian Marbled White has one generation a year, and only flies for three weeks per year in any one location. This species is listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats’ Directive. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o Gadd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 575 Melanargia arge (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 576 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melanargia occitanica (EsPER, 1793) — Western Marbled White CLL Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG -958 (-68.19%) -1076 (-76.58%) -1141 (-81.21%) | -1246 (-88.68%) -1196 (85.12%) | -1402 (-99.79%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1405) The Western Marbled White is mostly found in dry, rocky places with grassy vegetation and scattered rocks, although it is also seen in damper locations. Its foodplants are various grasses, such as Tor- erass (Brachypodium pinnatum), Bermuda-grass (Cynodon dactylon), and Cock’s-foot (Dactylus glomerata). This species is single-brooded and hibernates as a caterpillar. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.86). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum O 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 2000 40%) 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Melanargia occitanica (Nymphalidae) 577 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 2050 2080 578 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Melanargia ines (HOFFMANSEGG, 1804) — Spanish Marbled White .—hClcLwe Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -460 (-41.52%) -547 (-49.37%) -648 (-58.48%) | -659 (59.48%) |GRAS | -657 (-59.3%) -690 (-62.27%) -1019 (-91.97%) | -1019 (-91.97%) -1073 (-96.84%) | -1073 (-96.84%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1108) The Spanish Marbled White is found in warm, dry places with low vegetation on rocky slopes, on flower-rich grassy vegetation, and in scrub. Its foodplants are grasses, such as Tor-grass (Brachypodium pinnatum) and Compact Brome (Bromus madritensis). The caterpillars hibernate, pupating on the ground in the early spring. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Melanargia ines (Nymphalidae) 579 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 580 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrus ferula (Fasrictus, 1793) — Great Sooty Satyr .—hCcLe Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -703 (-31.91%) -1206 (-54.74%) BAMBU -741 (-33.64%) | -1333 (-60.51%) -941 (-42.71%) | -1572 (-71.36%) SEDG -378 (-17.16%) | -1706 (-77.44%) BAMBU_ | -601 (-27.28%) | -1846 (-83.79%) GRAS -631 (-28.64%) | -2036 (-92.42%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2203) In the mountains, the Great Sooty Satyr is mostly found in open, dry, rocky places with grassy vegetation. At lower altitudes, the butterflies occur in open clearings in woods, or at wood edges. They can often be seen drinking nectar on such flowers as thistles and scabious (Kuautia spp.). The female lays her eggs low down on dry grass stems. The caterpillars hibernate when still quite small, and pupate in May or June. Sheep’s-fescue (Festwca ovina) 1s the most important foodplant, but other fescues (Festuca spp.), false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), and bromes (Bromus spp.) ate probably also used. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum m o a : : : : dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 581 Satyrus ferula (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 582 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Satyrus actaea (EsPER, 1780) — Black Satyr BAMBU_ | -1016 (-62.79%) | -1579 (-97.59%) GRAS -1015 (-62.73%) | -1611 (-99.57%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1618) The Black Satyr can be found on grassy vegetation, rocky slopes, and in scrub. The caterpillars feed on various grasses, such as fescues (Fes/uca spp.), meadow-grasses (Poa spp.), false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), and bromes (Bromus spp.). They hibernate and then pupate on the ground at the end of the spring in May to June. The Black Satyr is single-brooded. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.92). Climate risk category: HHHAR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 Swe ; 6 10 02 Swe Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 2 oO. 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gadd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 583 Satyrus actaea (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 584 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Minois dryas (ScopPo.t, 1763) — Dryad 6 hc Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG 2262 (53.35%) -1957 (-46.16%) BAMBU 3822 (90.14%) | -1934 (-45.61%) 2375 (56.01%) | -2311 (-54.5%) SEDG 3230 (76.18%) | -2611 (-61.58%) BAMBU 3810 (89.86%) | -3066 (-72.31%) 4305 (101.53%) | -3463 (-81.67%) © Martin Wiemers Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4240) The Dryad inhabits grassy, rather rough vegetation, often located at the edge of woodland or scrub, and mostly quite damp. The foodplants are relatively broad-leaved, nutritious grasses, such as Purple Mootr-grass (Modnea caerulea), small-reeds (Calamagrostis spp.), and bromes (Bromus spp.). The female drops her eggs in flight into the grass. The tiny caterpillars emerge and, without feeding, enter a period of inactivity during the summer months. In the autumn, they begin to feed, hibernating in the first or second larval instar. The caterpillars make a little hollow in the ground in which to pupate, but do not spin a cocoon. The Dryad is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘edd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe o6 10 02 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 585 Minois dryas (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 586 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia fagi (Scoro.t, 1763) — Woodland Grayling een a 2258 (34.54%) | -1710 (-26.16%) SEDG 2059 (31.5%) -2487 (-38.04%) BAMBU 1747 (26.72%) | -3478 (-53.2%) 1334 (20.41%) | -4425 (67.69%) © Rudi Verovnik Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6537) The Woodland Grayling is a butterfly of open woods that occurs on grassy vegetation, along woodland rides, and in woodland glades. The butterflies are fond of settling on tree trunks, head end up, where, with their wings tightly closed and the eye-spots hidden, they are very well camouflaged. The eggs are laid on the blades of such grasses as fescues (Festuca spp.), false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), and bromes (Bromus spp.). The caterpillars grow very slowly and, when they are half-grown, they hibernate in the litter layer. The caterpillar pupates in a little hollow in the ground, spinning itself a sort of cocoon. The Woodland Grayling has one generation a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.83). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 Coded 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000) 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 587 Fipparchia fag (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 588 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia hermione (LINNAEus, 1764) — Rock Grayling ee -1810 (54.7%) | -2266 (-68.48%) amas [wien [ane SEDG -906 (-27.38%) | -2535 (-76.61%) BAMBU_ | -2091 (-63.19%) | -2968 (-89.69%) -2086 (-63.04%) | -3191 (-96.43%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 3309) The Rock Grayling can be found at the edge of very open woodland on poor steppe-like grasslands, as found, for example, near open coniferous woods growing on sandy ground. In these habitats, there are usually rock masses or other sorts of open ground. The butterfly often rests on the ground or against tree trunks, where the colours and pattern of the underside of its wings provide excellent camouflage. The eggs are laid on different grasses, including fescues (Fes/uca spp.) and false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.). The caterpillars grow very slowly and hibernate when half-grown in the litter layer. They pupate in a little hollow in the ground, after spinning a sort of cocoon. The Rock Grayling has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to only a limited extent (AUC = 0.72). Climate risk category: PR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 10 0.2 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 589 Hipparchia hermione (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 590 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia syriaca (STauDINGER, 1871) — Eastern Rock Grayling CLL Full dispersal No dispersal He SEDG 774 (40.33%) -595 (-31.01%) 481 (25.07%) -646 (-33.66%) |GRAS | 534 (27.83%) -773 (-40.28%) SEDG 652 (33.98%) -893 (-46.53%) BAMBU -201 (-10.47%) | -1231 (-64.15%) 15 Ga | -1as2 CTH © Josef Pennerstorfer Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1919) The Eastern Rock Grayling looks very much like the Woodland Grayling (F7. fag), and they occur together in some places.. This butterfly is a species of scrub and light woodland of all sorts, deciduous, coniferous and mixed. At the hottest part of the day, the butterflies hardly fly at all, resting with closed wings on the shadow side of the tree trunk, or on the ground where they blend into their surroundings. They hardly ever visit flowers. Their flight is quick and powerful. The caterpillars feed on grasses. Although single-brooded, they can be seen from May until September. The butterflies may be inactive during the hot, dry summer. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.95). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ai o =] faa 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 0.6 Minimum Swe 0.2 Swe at 0.6 1.0 1.0 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Flipparchia syriaca (Nymphalidae) 591 (B1) SEDG GRAS (A1Fl) 592 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia semele (Linnaeus, 1758) — Grayling Se -3269 (-23.63%) -4031 (-29.14%) ams | ate [om a SEDG -5233 (-37.83%) | -6024 (-43.55%) BAMBU_ | _ -6634 (-47.96%) | -7748 (-56.01%) -8424 (-60.9%) | -9748 (-70.47%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 13833) The Grayling 1s found in dry, infertile surroundings, occurring on poor, dry grasslands, dry heaths, and also often at the coast. The males and females meet each other above a solitary tree in a wide open landscape, such as a pine on heathland. The female lays her eggs on various fine-leaved grasses, including fescues (Festuca spp.), bents (Agrostis spp.), and bromes (Bromus spp.). Walking over the bare ground, she approaches a grass tussock, and deposits an egg on a withered grass blade a few centimetres above the ground. The caterpillar grows very slowly, feeding mostly at night. It hibernates deep down in a grass tussock. When it is ready to pupate, it spins itself a sort of cocoon in a little hollow in the ground. The Grayling has one brood a year. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.79). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum m o e : : : - tod 4000 0 odd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe Swe 0.6 0.6 1.0 02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 593 Hipparchia semele (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 594 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia volgensis (MAZOCHIN-PORSHNYAKOV, 1952) — Delattin’s Grayling .—COcLe Full dispersal No dispersal | SEDG 426 (43.43%) -382 (-38.94%) 2 = -96 (-9.79%) 549 (-55.96%) 155 (15.8%) -575 (-58.61%) SEDG 152 (15.49%) -465 (-47.4%) & | BAMBU -432 (-44.04%) | -735 (-74.92%) -467 (-47.6%) -856 (-87.26%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 981) Delattin’s Grayling is a butterfly of warm and dry places. It is found on rocky slopes, on dry grasslands, and in light woodland. It is stngle-brooded. Adults fly from June to July. Details of the ecology of the species are unknown. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 0.6 ct Qa a =) a ae Pe Oe cfes o= mn =e | £5 8 Go. 4 Oe D © ger mH -s qe. = 2 o w = 4 o 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gad Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 595 Hipparchia volgensis (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 596 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia statilinus (HUFNAGEL, 1766) — Tree Grayling .—hCcLUw Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG 1004 (16.41%) -1947 (-31.83%) -56 (-0.92%) -2416 (-39.5%) -506 (-8.27%) | -4017 (-65.67%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 6117) The Tree Grayling occurs in very warm, dry and nutrient-poor areas with much open ground and sparse vegetation. The size and markings of this butterfly are very variable. While remaining on the ground, the female deposits her eggs one by one on withered blades of grass. Grey Hatr-grass (Corynephorus canescens), Sheep’s-fescue (Festuca ovina), Brown Bent-grass (Agrostis rineals), bromes (Bromus spp.), Feather grass (Supa pinnata), and other grasses are used as foodplants. The small caterpillar passes the winter in a grass tussock and, if it does not freeze, remains active during the winter. However, growth only begins after hibernation. As development ts very slow, the caterpillar only pupates in the summer. The flight period of the Tree Grayling, that only has one brood a year, is therefore very late. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.76). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe ‘1.6 sh a a =) a ee Pe Oe -& =o o= mH =e £5 3 Oo. 4 of 7 oo a = ge ger me e- qf. = eo wv x é 5 = 4 o 0 2000 4000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd Gdd Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 597 Fipparchia statiiinus (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 598 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia fatua (FRYER, 1845) — Freyer’s Grayling 6c Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG -89 (-8.69%) -482 (-47.07%) BAMBU -46 (-4.49%) -439 (-42.87%) aE avery | 8 (S019 SEDG 235 (22.95%) -527 (-51.46%) BAMBU -245 (-23.93%) | -693 (-67.68%) GRAS -426 (-41.6%) -827 (-80.76%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1024) Freyer’s Grayling can be found in dense thickets, on rocky slopes, on dry, grassy vegetation, in light woodland and in olive groves and orchards. There are trees in most habitats. In appearance and choice of biotope, Freyer’s Grayling is very similar to the Tree Grayling (H. séauiinus). The butterflies are fond of resting on the ground or on tree trunks, and hardly ever visit flowers. It uses different grasses as foodplants, and has one generation a yeat. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum - todd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 599 Hipparchia fatua (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 600 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia fidia (LINNAEUs, 1767) — Striped Grayling .—hClcLwAee Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG -731 (-33.35%) -1623 (-74.04%) -1294 (59.03%) | -1644 (-75%) =5 : oe : BAMBU_ | -1518 (-69.25%) | -2110 (-96.26%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2192) The Striped Grayling occurs mostly on dry, rocky slopes with bushes and grassy vegetation, and in light woodland. The butterflies often rest on the ground or on tree trunks. Foodplants are various grasses, such as Bermuda-grass (Cynodon dactylon), Cock’s-foot (Dactylus slomerata), mweadow-grasses (Poa spp.), and false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.). This butterfly 1s single-brooded and hibernates as a caterpillar, on or just in the ground. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.88). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum tad 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 601 Hipparchia fidia (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 602 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Hipparchia senthes (FRuHstToRFER, 1908) — Balkan Grayling .ClcLw Full dispersal No dispersal Hi SEDG -62 (-7.38%) -350 (-41.67%) BAMBU -2 (-0.24%) -293 (-34.88%) a5 cn | 386 C4595) SEDG 207 (24.64%) -421 (-50.12%) BAMBU -280 (-33.33%) | -631 (-75.12%) -444 (52.86%) | -767 (-91.31%) © Neil Thompson Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 840) The Balkan Grayling replaces the Grayling (1. semed) in the Southern Balkan Peninsula, the Greek island of Levkas and the Aegean islands. It lives in dry grasslands, scrubland, and open woodlands and occurs from 0-1600m elevation. The species has one generation per year with adults on the wing from May until October. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.94). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum todd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ad 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 603 Fipparchia senthes (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 604 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Arethusana arethusa ({SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) — False Grayling a oe -64 (-1.14%) -2666 (-47.43%) SEDG -616 (-10.96%) -3665 (-65.2%) AMBU -1332 (-23.7%) | -4595 (-81.75%) -2335 (-41.54%) | -5381 (-95.73%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5621) The False Grayling is an inconspicuous butterfly. It occurs on warm, poor grasslands, often situated near the edges of woodland or scrub, on both calcareous and acid soils. ‘The female drops her eggs at random into the vegetation, leaving the young caterpillars to choose what to eat. They feed on different grasses, including Upright Brome (Bromus erectus), Gray Hatr-grass (Corynephorus canescens), Tor-grass (Brachypodium pinnatum), Crested Dog’s-tail (Cynosurus cristatus), and fescues (Festuca spp.). The caterpillars hibernate in the first larval instar. They pupate in a grass tussock and have one brood a yeat. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.77). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh = a = Ow Za ee] is} oO 3 == ' : : ? : ‘dd 4000 0 ood 4000 0 add 4000 0 odd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Alrethusana arethusa (Nymphalidae) SEDG GRAS (B1) (A1Fl) 605 606 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Brintesta circe (Fasrictus, 1775) — Great Banded Grayling .6—hlcLUwkE Full dispersal No dispersal Be SEDG 1057 (14.02%) -2308 (-30.61%) BAMBU -443 (5.88%) | -2864 (-37.99%) -42 (0.56%) -3143 (-41.69%) SEDG 185 (2.45%) -3680 (-48.81%) BAMBU -961 (-12.75%) | -5018 (-66.56%) -1518 (-20.14%) | -6183 (-82.01%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 7539) The Great Banded Grayling is immediately noticeable by its size, and is one of the largest butterflies of Europe. It glides more than it flies, and can be seen on dry grasslands at the edges of woodland, and on poor and moderately nutrient-rich agricultural land. The butterflies need quite a lot of nectar, and are easily observed on the purple flowers of thistles and other plants. The females release their eggs into the vegetation, sometimes while perched, often while in flight. The caterpillars can use most grasses as a foodplant. The tiny caterpillar first hibernates in a grass tussock, only in the spring beginning to feed and grow. The caterpillars pupates in a sort of cocoon in a little hollow in the ground. This butterfly species is single-brooded. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to a moderate extent (AUC = 0.81). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 ada 4000) 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 607 Brintesia circe (Nymphalidae) Ly ee 2080 2050 608 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Chazara briseis (LINNAEUS, 1764) — The Hermit .—hCcLUwE Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 645 (8.85%) -1902 (-26.08%) BAMBU -27 (-0.37%) -2256 (-30.94%) -349 (-4.79%) -2727 (-37.4%) SEDG -402 (5.51%) | -3226 (-44.24%) BAMBU_ | -1170 (-16.04%) | -4231 (-58.02%) -22.63 (-31.03%) | -5429 (-74.45%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 7292) The Hermit inhabits steppe-like grasslands in dry, warm places. In the northern part of its distribution range, it is restricted to dry chalk hills. Although it 1s a very large butterfly, when its wings are closed, it blends perfectly into its surroundings. Especially when resting so on a rock, they are almost invisible. The female deposits her eggs one at a time on the withered blades of many different erasses, including false-bromes (Brachypodium spp.), bromes (Bromus spp.), and fescues (Festuca spp.). The caterpillars hibernate in the first larval instar. They pupate in a sort of cocoon, in a little hollow in the ground, or sometimes low down on the foodplant. The Hermit has one brood a year and is one of the most seriously threatened species in central Europe. Present distribution can be explained by climatic variables to quite some extent (AUC = 0.8). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum 2 = sh = a = Ow =o i] sity oO = E : : . ? : dd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 Gdd 4000 Minimum Swe 06 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 609 Chazara briseis (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 610 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Pseudochazara anthelea (LEFEBVRE, 1831) — White-banded Grayling .—ClcL Full dispersal No dispersal Hee SEDG -175 (-21.39%) -360 (-44.01%) -134 (-16.38%) | -332 (-40.59%) | -231 (-28.24%) -481 (-58.8%) -322 (-39.36%) | -623 (-76.16%) © Albert Vliegenthart Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 818) With the white bands on each wing and the dark narrow scent-brand, the males of the White-banded Grayling are unmistakable. The butterflies occur on dry, grassy vegetation in open scrub, and on rocky slopes. Sometimes, they are seen in open woods. They often drink nectar from thistle-like plants. The males defend their territory, perching on a rock or other prominent features in the surroundings. This butterfly 1s single-brooded. Pseudochazara amalthea (FRIWALDSZKY, 1845), placed by KupDRNA (2002) provisionally in the genus Hipparclia, 1s a subspecies of Pseudochazara anthela (LEFEBVRE, 1831), as it is already treated by many authors. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.9). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum ‘edd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 oad 4000 0 add 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O2 0.6 Swe 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Pseudochazara anthelea (Nymphalidae) SEDG (B1) 611 BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 612 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Oenets norna (BECKLIN, 1791) — Norse Grayling .—hCcLwE Full dispersal No dispersal fi SEDG -1683 (-81.03%) | -1691 (-81.42%) -1680 (-80.89%) | -1687 (-81.22%) -2026 (-97.54%) | -2030 (-97.74%) © Bernard Fransen Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 2077) The Norse Grayling occurs in both dry and wet biotopes, on marshes with a vegetation of mosses and grasses, at the edges of swampy habitats and streams, in low birch scrub, on sparse vegetation in clearings in birch woods, and on sunny, rocky slopes with low shrubs. The butterflies spend much of the day resting on tree trunks or on the ground with their wings closed and are so hardly noticeable. They are quick flyers and difficult to approach. The female lays her eggs on various sedges and grasses. The egg takes two years to develop into a butterfly, and the caterpillars hibernate twice. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.98). Climate risk category: HHHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 40000 2000 4000 Gdd d Gdd Gadd Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold Oenezs norna (Nymphalidae) 613 SEDG (B1) BAMBU (A2) GRAS (A1Fl) 2050 2080 614 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Oeneis glacialis (MOLL, 1785) — Alpine Grayling .—hlcLw Full dispersal No dispersal fe SEDG -192 (-20.65%) -368 (-39.57%) -114 (12.26%) | -323 (34.73%) |GRAS | -247 (-26.56%) | -400 (-43.01%) SEDG -430 (-46.24%) | -637 (-68.49%) BAMBU_ | -272 (-29.25%) | -529 (-56.88%) -480 (-51.61%) -710 (-76.34%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 930) At altitudes of about 1500 m, the Alpine Grayling occurs on dry, scrubby vegetation. Above the tree-line, they can be seen in dry, stony alpine grasslands, and on dry, open sunny slopes. Most habitats have a stream in the vicinity. Perched on a stone, the males defend their territory, chasing away other butterflies, as well as other insects. The female lays her eggs one at a time on dry grass stalks close to the ground. The caterpillar hibernates in the first larval instar, and having fed during the growing season, hibernates again in the last instar. Eventually, some time between April and June, it pupates. Its main foodplant is Sheep’s-fescue (Fes/aca ovina) but other fescues are also used. This butterfly 1s single-brooded. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.99). Climate risk category: HR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum o ‘dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 60.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 615 Oenets glacialis (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 616 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Oenets jutta (HUBNER, 1806) — Baltic Grayling y .—CcLee Full dispersal No dispersal Hee SEDG -1165 (-19.45%) | -1791 (-29.89%) -1434 (-23.94%) | -2057 (-34.33%) . “ -2096 (-34.99%) | -3090 (-51.58%) -2839 (-47.39%) | -3887 (-64.88%) © Chris van Swaay Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5991) Both in lowland and mountains, the Baltic Grayling occurs in peaty and swampy habitats. Most butterflies are found in damp habitats with a vegetation of grasses and sedges, often with open water in the middle and surrounded by coniferous woodland. The butterflies frequently visit the wood edge looking for flowers, because the peat vegetation is poor in nectar plants. They also rest on the branches or trunks of trees, or on dead wood. The Baltic Grayling shares its habitat with hardly any other butterfly. The female lays her eggs on various grasses, but which ones the caterpillars feed on is not known. The caterpillar’s development takes nearly two years. Present distribution can be very well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.96). Climate risk category: R. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum a ‘edd 4000 0 odd 4000 0 ad 4000 0 add 4000 Minimum Swe 06 1.0 O02 Swe 0.6 1.0 0.2 Annual precipitation range Swe 0.6 Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 617 Oeneis jutta (Nymphalidae) 2080 2050 618 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Danaus chrysippus (LINNAEUS, 1758) — Plain Tiger a -209 (-50.73%) | -304 (-73.79%) SEDG -74 (-17.96%) -273 (-66.26%) BAMBU -195 (-47.33%) | -334 (-81.07%) -203 (-49.27%) | -369 (-89.56%) © Kars Veling Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’x10’ grid cells; present niche space: 412) The Plain Tiger occurs in coastal areas on warm, rocky places with scrub, on agricultural land and in gardens. The Plain Tiger can fly great distances, and in this way can found new populations. The caterpillars feed on the milkweeds Asclepias curassavica and Cynachum procera. \t has several broods a year and does not hibernate. In areas with cold winters, populations can therefore only be temporary. It is difficult to establish whether the species 1s present as a resident the whole year, or as a migrant, only breeding in the summer. Present distribution can be well explained by climatic variables (AUC = 0.89). Climate risk category: HHR. Annual temperature range Minimum Small (33%) Large (66%) Maximum Ow Za on mH a dd 4000 0 edd 4000 0 add 4000 0 ada 4000 1.0 Minimum Swe 0.6 1.0 02 Swe 0.6 1.0 O2 Annual precipitation range Maximum Large (66%) Small (33%) Swe 0.6 0.2 Observed species distribution (50 x 50 km? UTM grid; black Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water (orange areas) content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange — unsuitable; green — hostile; black line — modelled threshold 619 Danaus chrysippus (Danaidae) (1a) 504s (ZV) Nanva (4b) SVH9 2080 2050 620 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies C.3 Non-modelled European butterfly species Due to our methodological restrictions, it was not possible to model the climate change risk for a large number of species with a very restricted European distribution (149 species, see Table C.3.1). Most of these species would expect to be categorized as being at extremely high risk (THHR) from climate change because they have such a limited distribution and because any change in climate space is likely to have a strong impact. Better models should be developed for these species in the future, but it 1s important not to ignore them in the current discussion on climate change impacts on butterflies. We have therefore listed them below to highlight European endemics and give an indication of the European distribution. We also have listed the closest relative of the taxon concerned in those cases where taxonomic discussion is ongoing. In some cases, the species mentioned in the first column may eventually be included as subspecies of this closest relative. 621 C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species WD (Od SMW “TV ‘su ‘val Wa DIUSDINDD SIO") MOTPA PEPNO[D uro—eg MOTPA Pepnoyy) ysorH dry, ssurs¢ usa\svy] UOO}SI+] ULIOI) [PRIMOT[LAS ULITSIO’) COG] “dy BuuvyHg svy0yD (OG8 WHAVHOS-HORRIAE]) Vuasounv svy07y (GLLT ‘saioraav yy) yyasoyf vyesdojvD (9¢8] “IVANASIOg) auounp supqooqjupy ovpHoId < (POGL “Iaaay) noyas viquudsey 6E8I “ANH wojedsoq oyzdog (68L1 “ISauap]) sauggodr uoqopy ovpruorideg (TOgT ‘uausaw’]) xnug suoyouly | (PORT “INaMy) wsege sus aulg [. (TPQT ‘NNVINSHAAY) Wryadqui supqous (zegy ‘unanvy) eadruegs vynids (OPRT UNaNVY) exuvus subi (L781 “WANaQEY) xeuqy sopidopag (CIOL ‘NIGUAAMY) Mapunys suposwguny (CEQ “IVANASIOg) Mzuogsoq oquog ¢ (apoo g-eudye 1-991€ OS]) SeujuUNOD UesdoOJN® Jo sapod AuJUNOD 9y} UM Z'E'D JIGe] 99s :uONNquISIp Uesdouny (dlwapuUs Ule]JUNOW = || ‘OlWapPuUsd pues! = |) DIWaPUS UBadOINy = J ‘BuloBuo si UOISSNOSIP DIWIOUOXE} BJOUM SO9SED BSOY} UI PA9UJBDUOD UOXE}] OU} JO DAI}E/9J ISASOJD :dAITE[9J ISOSO}D (elssny pue ‘BAOPIOW ‘OUIeIYA ‘SNuejag JO S9019} By] Bulpnjoxe) seyre Siu} UIYUM pd||@apOW U99q 1OU BABY YOIYM saideds AyolNg ueedon®z :1"E"D sqeL Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 622 PS EE | i anja soydea onjg Areur7) ong sumbrorT ssouardg YN SSA Wa SS SES el Sa TTR wONNQINISIp ERRATA [ae | (Pel UAMINAAQ) Zaswayq vuavat [ OZ6L ‘NVWaVH’) Sogdod agalsdomyyy (OPT “arinug) suuprqgan suudaty (LpQ] WHdAVHOS-HoRIa py) “uenbag opiduy L7G WHANALS yaassv9 opiduy (PrQy WAAAY) Supqoou sepyyiyD (ZL UAINVUD) Supjogn suuvx}y (OLG] SAMA] SASWAUOLLOUL DID (PESl “ONTS)) seman syungd ye sepruavoAT ¢ (TST ANAT) apuorqo vyuog (SOT “WANAQTT) syuundsaq secary < B96] ‘OIAOMUO’T VunyVg Stat] ¢ TOQT UNATAY Sasuascapou Xia Pauory (GZ8T ANANEY) yuqoys xiajqouor (ZSQT “AHAMUY) Veuad aojqouTy LOST UHONICOAVLS Saujusus aojgouy CI61 ‘TUHOSHLOY Wupuadsag aojqonry COG] SININV.LS asada a07qoury 8007 “MOVE 2UgULISUOI a0;GINF (THB “IHAZNOC) vuopvYo a0;GONTT (6781 “ONTS) acocnza szojoy (ZIST “adog aa) agaly seyoD 623 C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species vIUIpsIeS :TI| [7A UOPLLOI SUJDUUUMOM Of Ajeay yINoS :T I] A wyAo Gea SuvULUMOL Og eTUOCTeIe’) :S eae SHOP SHIDUUUMON OT SIN “WD SO) W: : vUOpsryy WO ureds WIION :Si BPVADN VIF :Sq] WA i onyg, (Gvyeg) orureavey (CLR, ‘MANaAT]) M708 supounuoyog (LQ6] “AHHOIN]) Yuacuvuuas suouuoljog (6L6L ‘OSOT, 29 OLLATIVG) 20708 sujouuol]ogy (SZ6L ‘VUNVOVS AC) Suan suppumMolog (O16 AHIAAAQ) Zassaagnl supouluMoly og (9Z6] ‘ALINE A) SUnLaquxa suDUUMULO] Og SOOT ‘SNR AC 2 SISLAO’) aveuaja sujouuMoljog (QR 1 ‘NNVINSUMAR) Suuspsala09 supvULUULOGOT (9L61 ‘NMOUG) Seswaeuvowv sHjoULUOL OI (S661 ‘SVIVAVHS) 29 SISLNOT)) SMMOMPUD SUIDULUUOY OT (L961 SUAISUOY) apsuew supouumod og (CGT ‘ONIN Goan suloqary SOOT “IV LA UATAZLAL 29700 sulogag (LZ6T ‘Alaa A) 2/fnuy sulogag (OPSt “IvAnasiog) smmuaid suloqaty (zEgy ‘uaHOosq) wood sulaqar gy (SpST waaay) suoplsd sulogag (Lpgy Maria) suagy suloqary (6EQ] ‘Una Y) smnadsaq suloqay (ZGQ] SudAaEyq) sayedina suloqar gy (ZEQ] AAA) svuvpsvp suloqagy (OLG6L ‘UAHLINAQ) 2eayzaq sulogag (PEST “ONTS]) syaqs Duval T ([SQ] ‘uaAdas) vuedyqus vuavakT Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 624 Id “AS SON ‘etavurtpuros onary aS Axelay Fepog (6781 “IvAnasiog) samo vuojog < ¢ LV ‘LI ‘HO “WA : Aseyniayy ureyuno ‘SOASNVINAAOP]) vavdpu v12070 Sy :saouardg 29 sdry ‘T4 “AS ‘ON (eels an (FOST 1H) PALO Arey] posurm-Aysnq (LL UNLLNg) vqosdu vuojog Arey[AU | ULoTsIO7) (CZQI SINVAOD) vsya stuuloupy sepreydurAyy (ZOG6T “TAaeD) Logadly) vuvuvanT, (QGQ] SAAAMM YY) womulpua Duvuviny. (ZSGQ] AHATVHOS-HORIAAE]) 4//ad0U SasvUuco |, (C6LT ‘snloniavy) smsruqGooqy snonavy, (GhQT UHAMU) SMUG SHIMAVT, (Z86] ‘NEIMOO 2 SNRIQ) awispgavg sapyunjyods (QR “IvVANasIog) Masapay winzulzv 5 (OL6L AHIIAIQ) swaecuer supouuoljog ureds yynog :Sy Ea ; (6L61 “IV Lt OTILISNG-ZAINON)) avpajont suspumoljog a soupy TW AD 625 C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species uredg yenuay :Sy Wa | ZO ‘OW SAV Mel HOY We | MHS SLLSLV Sdqv] WW | Sy Wy sseouerdg Eiecd LE wt S4qV] IN| SU UO SIN Od] Wa Id SAS (ON ‘elavurpuros onary fat VIFqUIUL’) :Ci] LV SLL HO 'sdty] Ww | SH SY ssoouarkg iiecd BITAS 29 soouaTA :S7 fsoouarkg YAY ee ir Sy YW :seouerhg LV SLLSHO dry] 22 | IS “LV SLL sdy} Wea LE Wt S4pV] Wa | Ld 4svoo YyANOs “‘spuvys]| Ayeut’) SSH feat Sa UD ‘Va “IV] WA a wonnqmsip uvadomy| | a | nosy dada vigaay jo[SuTY stoiedey Jo[SuNT Urjopns opsuny ues opsuny Amoq osyey JO[SUNT syore'T JO[SUNT SJOYSIN JO[SUNT pur[poo,\ ono7y jopsuny s,uewdey’) jo[suNy uvisesng jopsuny Assvsg s.ossoy oq JO[SUNT S,dFAqoajoT jopsuny Assvig, ystueds JO[SUNT ouTVAvL JO[SUNT popurg A\oT]O_ jopsuTY yoods sy) JO[SUNY $.50zIVY jopsuny Assvrg Ss oTAOyIO'T JO[SUNT VISOUPY OSTey PIA “YOIvuopy yIwoy] [ews urjos) wrap] uryyeg 7? pvap] ULqTH YIP] ULITSIO’) C/8T UOHINNIQC Mads viqay LOS] SWHONICOVLS M7japus viqady (PZT “IVaOD) ves Diqasry OS8T ‘NIISVUS Oluuaqys viqaay TERT “IVANASIOg Osis vigasry O0G6L “TIOHOIN Sawadopogs viqaay LOST WHONICAV.LS surpod vigasy SOG6L ‘NVNdVH) Mund vig OOGT “SHANTY Symjuano Diqaary $G6I “ASSAY 299 OIAOMUO’T SYnIU DIgaly B78 “IVANAsIOg zaaiqafay vIgaaTy SORT UILLAg veundsay viqasy CCRT “IVANASIOG aos108 viqasry CO8T “INANE ypnsvfoanyf viqaay (68L 1 ‘NUSAVHNUOG) Puspuyys viqaly] OG68T UAZLVY Ysugo viqary €G6I ‘OIAOMIO’T Lunn vIqas7] (9081 SDOUSNVINAHOP]) 2fadouqyjan vigaary (QGL ‘SQavNNIq) saddixad suvung, (OPQ WHAM) seeugy vg duduouso’y OLGL “ay syvjuauo vyduuous0’y LOGL SWAONIAAV.LS vuvgzsa vyduuoua0’y (9081 ‘wANaAyz]) vuuatos vy duuous0D Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 626 PUYIST SOFISSIN AO a UAMOIG MOPVIJ[ S,UOSUTOY J, vue PT Sa} La eIeUe’) ULILD) :Sy] gee] La SPULIST VZUO ‘TJ “velfay WIUEPILS 4 LIISIOD A] surAvrgy snsddv) VAIPLY + Ld baa SpULIST ULTOY : [J SuTpAVIL) ULIOI) SuTAorE) sarozy soyjedse) ATH OxIOTE] TA rior uonngqmsip uvadoma Rese SsuyAvrs) uJOYyINOS (6061 SMOHILIAAQ) wvoeu vjowuDyy 0661 ‘NOSNOH[, SasspusnIyvg DIOLUDIAT O76] ‘SHAVUD Yrorud njowupyyy (L861 ‘NOSIOH]) 72g vrouDyy (6881 SISIHHD) zssha viqounddapy (F861 “UNVIN) soe riqourddiy Z661 “ELLINS 29 NING aqupoun vigaodgayy $361 ‘VNYaNy wzuopsogs viqowwdgayy (CZ6] “Aaanv.LS) vpoupod riqawwddayy (6ZQ] “INVaO) suaaoau viqasvddyy (IZ6] ‘uaanv.Ls) vunzyodveu vigauwdgayy (LL8] SMaDNIanv.Ls) vuasuau viqowwddayy (L681 MANVG-ANAHLLAg) sauasapou riqowwddayy 961 ‘VNNGNY sgaqsry viqoswdgayy L9G] ‘SNIDOIPFY Biawos viqoswddayy (2061 AIIO.LSHAN) Bevuad viqowddepy (6FG6L “MIOFA) Sasuaudia viqawwddapy (OGL “taaay) vyew riqounddapy LLOL SVNuansy Zuasuasega vigauwd gee] (206[ “WaTMOLSHAA]) eaqonyg vigaswd apy L9G ‘SNIDOIPT Suqoong viqosod ayy (6681 ‘WaNOUULS) vuuorv wiqowwddeyy (9Z8] ‘ITIANOG) suanpsuw viqouvd dip y 627 AQspuysrurwop-w} = | SsuRY UoLyy (ZEgl “ONS adosagsy ven dy VITOPLW i Ld ‘spurysy Aseursy oq | 1a | DIupUt DSSOUD A, [esupy poy Azeur) (6181 “IaVaOyD) veuvyna pssauv A (CLL SANNUC) SasuarusGaed VssaUD A (LZ6L ‘ISWOY) suavyyia DivSDYI0pNas g Surpsoryg yeq (O861 ‘NMOUG) aoqdesy vavsvqr0puas gy SuyArsryy) spd (L861 ‘NEMO 2 SNR) $afsa4o DADSDYIOPHAS | SuTAoFE) ULTIDOIL (OL8T UHONIAGNVLG) BMT DADSDYIOPNAS J SulAory uvisy Aor (GPQ] “WadYHOS-HORRIAP]) Léalae nepspqsopnas J C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species SuTAvrey ULTUOPoIVIY (CLO ‘SSOUD) wyS108ULI DADSDYIOPNas J JO[SuNT uenvUeC (L8L1 ‘snlontavy) ade piqasapory poo, popyoods Azeur’) (LL8L SYHONIANAV.LS) saprorq fax adupang eITOPC] iL.d par poor, pappeds uvmopryy (GLLI ‘sntontavy) weg gex atanuny VIUIPILS : TT SVOISIOT) YY DAITOUM DIDULUOISD [. UMOI [[VA\ ULITSIO7) (PZQ] ANAAP]) weavsounund VIDIUMOISY WL WY “IV “MIN SM Og * UMOIG 9d}Iw'T Jossy] (P8LI “WHdsy]) aways vuury IH SAS SON izravurpuros onary 2 Suykerg onory (Z6LT SUHAIANHODS) adog szaaQ) VIVIPILS 3] {OISIOT) YT avayjln my (9ZQ] SITIHNOG) vsnugon swap ERE AS INE 2S och NL DIEDYID DAVIYIW (F061 UOHRAAIQC) sSeswaporau vavyqyay\y Aseyas yy Op wy] (Q7R] UHAMAY) Valapsy VaDIY aT Arey] ssokory] (PSL Adds) Luuimpav vavIy A ONY PITFeJA] ULTPOTS (CEgy “IvAnasalog) vsmsagd vidvUD] ayy UAOTY MOpva] ULIsoV (LQ UNTIN'Z,) vessaudyay VIOLUDINT UMOIG AOPLI|\] ULTUTPIVS (JST SINVITIH) seumu rjowupyy Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Table C.3.2: Country codes of European countries (ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 code) i a Eo [a [aban [at [amie is [pane Per [page Pi [Bae Fd [cat [inetd [oe [ome [2 [emchnepiie aaa [bx [Deore [ee [anon [as [aie Pa [int [ro [eee [em [Rows [ae [Orie [ar [oimier [en [ome CS fiw [roms [ie [inte Pc oN a 2 Dries a 7 re 2 =e Nolios eee os i Mie Ni feNatcae im my [toed Pr [Posh 50 mes Sc RU [Ros Racaion 2 a ee seas mds m [tg ts [Uinins BEB BEeE < Sree eee O 4 C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species 629 C.4 Summary results The results of our analyses are summarized in Figures C.4.1 and C.4.2 (and in tables App. 3.1 and App. 3.2). The study shows clearly that climate change poses a considerable additional risk to European butterflies. However, the risk varies considerably under the three storylines considered in this atlas. Under the extreme, no dispersal GRAS scenario for 2080, 24% of the modelled species lose more than 95% of their present climatic niche and 78% lose more than 50%. A further 20% are under potential risk and only 6% of species can be rated as being at lower risk. Under the intermediate, no dispersal BAMBU scenario for 2080, 9% lose more than 95% of their climatic niche and 66% lose more than 50%. While under the best case SEDG scenario, only 3% lose more than 95% of their climatic niche and 48% lose mote than 50%. The results also show that there is a considerable time lag in the effects of climate change on European butterflies. Until 2050, the effects across different scenarios are still moderate. Under the no dispersal GRAS scenario (excluding the PR category), around 60% of species are still rated as experiencing a lower risk until 2050, while in 2080 these are a mete 6 %. The relative differences are similar across all the scenarios. Dispersal ability is one of the major factors that will affect a species ability to survive under future climatic conditions. This ability is a proxy not only for mobility itself, but also for the availability of suitable habitats in the new areas of the respective climatic niches. Under the very moderate SEDG scenario, 33% of species could experience a net increase in climate niche space until 2050, and even 30% of the species have this option until 2080. Under the other two scenarios, around a quarter of species could experience an increase in climate space until 2050, while by 2080 this is only the case for 18%. Thus, until 2050, there may be better conditions for some warmth-loving species, provided they can respond, but these subsequently get worse. The most striking differences in the results are the ones between the different scenarios. Considering the no dispersal scenarios again for 2080, the number of species of the lower risk category ranges between 43% for SEDG and 6% for GRAS (with 20% for BAMBU). On page 630 we present the results of climate risk analysis for both time steps (left and right column) under the three scenarios SEDG (first row), BAMBU (second row), and GRAS (third row) for full dispersal, while on page 631 the same is shown under the assumption of no dispersal (for definition of risk categories see chapter B.4, pages 24ff.). 630 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies © tail ispersal 00 SF IL | i —_—-- - = + : ~~ - | UU | Ti | | Re | LA deer | LR imer MEIER. | 1 He | Lib Beer | LE incr Bhi dispersal = a u a. ah? bes Fe] aS Gull disjecreal, Lh SI Sd SEG | | | MAB SETS ell dlinperrsal J _ 2050 HAR THA 2 (AAD [amen | Hi in | & | UR deer] LE iner J vannmere | ten HK Lit deer | Lt imer Biel digersel | UH | wd Siidapersd | a: | as | 45 Dee0 AME a6 AMIE Bell Sepersall bell dispersal SHO Ti RAS SOD ta HAS fl — ~ Haat | HMe = i [LR eee | LR ince | enn FLEE Hie. | Lim deer (Eine Stull fayaraatl] 1t il 7 Stull | aT 225 44 TSE GA Be CALAn Figure C.4.1: Percentages of climate risk categories of European butterflies under the full dispersal assumption for 2050 (left column) and 2080 (right column) under the three scenarios SEDG (first row), BAMBU (second row), and GRAS (third row). (without “PR”; for category definitions see pp. 24ff.) C. Climate Risks of European Butterfly Species 631 mi dia piers | nai dia pemrcal 2 oF [MG 20a SF [ay i -— = f HEE = HE. ! Litdeer | 10 baer | anne | HER 1a Sno ilispepeal e4 Lift. Gna | 43 2H NS6 SEIN IRS SEIN. | penne | Wan disperal 20 BAL PL ed UA deer | LR deer 1-5 a+ HHI | HHR Hk = Bz 4) Wiididla | ik B Lider LE ier Bins dikpersal | oa | if | | len ae | f Sinn degerent 14.7 tei ben hasin lea FAATAA Sinn ibis spereal Bon dispersal F “3 eral E ye | 482 = a T # HH | HAR le R | LR dees | Utiner | anna | i ao LL incr Bieteere| it | 4) | 7 | coe | ai | os ee ee MES GLAS DORE GRAS Figure C.4.2: Percentages of climate risk categories of European butterflies under the no dispersal assumption for 2050 (left column) and 2080 (right column) under the three scenarios SEDG (first row), BAMBU (second row), and GRAS (third row). (without “PR”; for category definitions see pp. 24ff.) D ee DISCUSSION OF METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS 634 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies D.1 Limitations of species distribution models and future projections General suitability of species distribution projections Species distribution models (Guisan & Zimmermann 2000) are widely used in assessing possible future distribution patterns. They correlate current environmental conditions with observed presences/absences (or only presences) of single species. Species distribution models are based on the assumption that a species occupies all areas with a suitable environment, i.e. the species fills its so called fundamental niche. In reality, species realize only parts of their fundamental niches and thus are rarely in equilibrtum with their environment. This may be caused by several reasons, e.g. biotic interactions or dispersal ability may restrict the niche filling or slow it down in a changing environment. Though the approach of species distribution models is purely correlative and does not imply causality, species distributions can usually be described well enough to draw some useful conclusions. Based on the assumption that the relation between environment and species distribution holds in a changing environment, distribution models are used to project the potential impacts on species distribution and biodiversity corresponding to climate and land use change scenarios. Species distribution models are validated by comparing the fit between the modelled distribution, based on current environmental conditions, and the observed distribution. Such validation helps estimating the model reliability and uncover soutces and patterns of discrepancy between modelled and real species distribution. Having assessed the modelling errors, it is possible to make a careful and sound interpretation of the results. The most important causes of modelling errors for species distribution models ate as follows: ¢ Data quality: A low sampling effort, duc tolow accessibility orinconspicuousness of species, underestimates the true species distribution and truncates environmental niches. Data should cover the whole range of a species and thus the full niche of species, otherwise tolerance to environmental conditions may be misjudged (Kadmon et al. 2003). ¢ Data resolution: Data resolution may not be appropriate to capture environmental conditions that are experienced by organisms (Pearson & Dawson 2003). Mean climatic conditions taken over a larger area may not reflect the local climatic conditions experienced in a species’ microhabitat. For example conditions in mountains and peat bogs may change substantially D. Discussion of methodological imitations within short distances due to variations in local topography and land-form (Trtvedi et al. 2008). Modelling algorithm: Choice of modelling algorithm affects prediction error (Pearson et al. 2006). Some methods may give a better fit to nonlinear data, but are subject to over-fitting (Randin et al. 2006) (1.e. they may describe calibration data well but are useless for temporal or spatial projections). To reduce the influence of the chosen technique on the modelling results Araujo & New (2007) suggested to combine the results of many different (good) models by ensemble forecasting. Ensemble methods are surely appropriate in the absence of detailed ecological knowledge of the species modelled. However, for species with known ecological requirements, model results can be judged according to their sensibility. Using ensemble methods and average across all results Gncluding insensible models) would lead to worse instead of better model results. Species’ ecology: Model performance may be influenced in a variety of ways by species characteristics (McPherson & Jetz 2007). Range characteristics resemble the ecological niche of a species in space. Species with clumped distribution and narrow niches have a good predictability; results for range size itself were ambiguous and may even be an statistical artefact (for discussion see: Hernandez et al. 2006). Species of higher trophic levels are expected to be modelled least well, since they strongly depend on other species (Huntley et al. 2004). A high temporal or spatial mobility (e.g. good dispersal, migratory behaviour) may lead to reduced detectability or misjudgement of habitat preferences (Pulliam 2000). Low performance of inconspicuousness ot scarce species is opposed by a good performance of large and easily detectable species (Seoane et al. 2005). Intraspecific variation: In species distribution models (and usually in dynamic models as well) it is assumed that species are not differentiated and do not have phenotypic or behavioural plasticity. lgnoring the adaptation to local conditions leads to overestimation of the environmental niche (Harte et al. 2004). Evolutionary adaptation: Usually, both types of modelling approaches ignore the ability of species for (micro-)evolutionary changes, i.e. species can adapt to novel conditions only within the limits of their genetically predetermined potential. However, it was shown that species have the evolutionary potential to adapt to novel environmental conditions (Thomas et al. 2001). This will underestimate the potential environmental niche in the future. Lacking parameters: Limited knowledge on environmental conditions influencing species distribution seriously reduces modelling performance (Barry & Elith 2006). Inclusion of land use increased model performance on small scale (Luoto et al. 2007) as well as large scale (Pompe et al. 2008). The influence of biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation, diseases, prey) are generally ignored in species distribution models though they are assumed 635 636 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies to play a large role in shaping species distribution. Recent applications are promising at least to describe simple interactions (Heikkinen et al. 2007, Schweiger et al. in press). ¢ Changing biotic and environmental interactions. Species distribution models based on correlations between current distribution environment may be invalidated by uncoupling and rearrangement of biotic interactions (see above) or the appearance of unprecedented environmental conditions (e.g. CO, fertilization of plants). For example, increased environmental CO, may lead to increased stomatal conductance and hence to less evapotranspiration and subsequently higher soil water availability than can be assumed from purely climatic conditions. Ignoring this can largely affect species distribution models (Rickebusch et al. 2008). This list makes clear that biodiversity models are not able to replicate all the complex patterns of reality and are valid only under its simplifying assumptions. The extent of this limitation might question the usefulness of such models. However, the aim of such modelling procedures is not to capture the full complexity of the systems but to gain a better understanding of the basic patterns and underlying natural processes. The simplifications allow us to reduce the complexity of the real world to a level that can be handled with the available techniques and knowledge. It is better to achieve some limited knowledge, even with imperfect methods and the related uncertainties, than to remain in complete ignorance. Hence predictive species distribution models cannot forecast the future but are able to give potential reactions of species under environment change scenarios, which may help in dertving appropriate policy recommendations. Approaches used in the present atlas We used generalised linear models (GLMs) to relate climatic variables to species distributional data using a binomial error structure, which means that we need both reliable presence and absence data and to assess the full climatic niche of a species. It would hence be best if both northern and southern range margins are at least to some extent defined by climate and not solely by other factors such as e.g. geographical borders. ‘To ensure high quality models we excluded countries with low levels of sampling and highly uneven coverage. The southern range margins of many Mediterranean species (e.g. Danaus chrysippus, Gegenes nostrodamus, Leptotes pirithous, Libythea celtis, Tomares ballus see Figs. D.1.1-D.1.5) ate, however, often limited by the geographical borders of Europe and not necessarily by climate. Here, future projections may be treated with caution; since extrapolations to future warmer and dryer climates might be overly pessimistic in some cases as such species’ potential performance in such climates (e.g. species that also occur in North Africa) was not included in model parameterisation. D. Discussion of methodological limitations 637 Figure D.1.1: Actual distribution Figure D.1.2: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic and modelled present climatic niche of Danaus chrysippus niche of Gegenes nostrodamus Figure D.1.3: Actual distribution Figure D.1.4: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic and modelled present climatic niche of Leptotes pirithous niche of Libythea celtis Figure D.1.5: Actual distribution Figure D.1.6: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic and modelled present climatic niche of Tomares ballus niche of Vanessa cardui | 638 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Vanessa cardui (Fig, D.1.6) for example, is even more difficult, as this species seems to sutvive the winter only in South Mediterranean regions while populations might vanish there in summer, depending on re-migrants from the North. Here it would be most important to model the future overwintering area. Unfortunately this area seems to be situated mostly outside Europe, and little is known on this (apart from the Canaries where this species can be found all year round). It therefore 1s of limited use to model the total area where this species can be found, because this is the whole of Europe. Within this atlas we present ecological niche models based on climatic variables. It is crucial to note that the depicted current and future climatic niches do not represent predictions of future species distributions but are projected distributions of the potentially suitable climate space for the species. Of course there are many more factors that determine whether a species is actually able to occupy the potentially suitable climate spaces, including landscape structure, habitat quality, resource availability or predation and parasitic pressures and the dispersal ability of a species. However, as applied at the coarse scale across the whole of Europe, climate is usually best suited to explain such large scale distributional patterns (Uhuiller et al. 2004). ‘This is supported by the generally high accuracy of our models (1c. high AUC values for most species). However, there are exceptions such as Lycaena helle (Fig. D.1.7), Coenonympha oedippus (Fig. D.1.8), and Euphydryas maturna (Fig, D.1.9), whose distributions are tied closely to particular habitat conditions. Such local habitats with specific structural and microclimatic conditions are averaged out at the resolution used in this analysis and thus do not contribute to model development. In these cases where habitat and microclimatic conditions are much more important determinants of species’ distributions, large scale bioclimatic niche models often fail to adequately describe and consequently to project future species distributions. We address these concerns by taking AUC values into account when assessing species risk (see section B4). A high temporal or spatial mobility (e.g. good dispersal, migratory behaviour, invasive species) may lead to misjudgement of habitat preferences. This means that results for species like Vanessa cardui (Fig. D.1.14), Vanessa atalanta (Fig. D.1.10) or Cacyreus marshal (Fig. D.1.11) have to be treated with caution. In many such cases it would be much better to only include the range of permanent populations (e.g. in Colkas croceus, Fig. D.1.12; and Lampides boeticus, Fig. D.1.13). Unfortunately, this is a rather difficult task which might be tackled in the future, because it is often not known whether records represent permanent populations. Another example is Boloria titania (Fig. D.1.15), where the model was not able to predict the occurrence of this species in the Baltic States. The inclusion of constraints of the larval host plant Pohgonum bistorta in the process of model development results in much better models (Schweiger et al. in press). This shows that including other essential abiotic and biotic environmental factors can help to improve model accuracy, but in most cases we lack crucial information about the multitude of species interactions that may add to the effects of climate. Consequently, to be consistent across the species, we relied solely on climatic variables in the current atlas. There ate many different methodological approaches to develop ecological niche models and ways to deal with issues such as host-plant constraints (Guisan & D. Discussion of methodological limitations Figure D.1.7: Actual distribution Figure D.1.8: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic and modelled present climatic niche of Lycaena helle niche of Coenonympha oedippus Figure D.1.9: Actual distribution FigureD.1.10:Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic and modelled present climatic niche of Euphydryas maturna niche of Vanessa atalanta FigureD.1.11:Actualdistribution FigureD.1.12:Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic and modelled present climatic niche of Cacyreus marshalli niche of Colias croceus 639 640 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies FigureD.1.13:Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic niche of Lampides boeticus FigureD.1.14: Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic niche of Euphyadryas cynthia eee ore oo my FigureD.1.15: Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic niche of Boloria titania Zimmermann 2000, Elith et al. 2006, Heikkinen et al. 2006, ‘Thuiller et al. 2008). We used GLMs despite the fact that they did not always provide the best model fit for the current distribution. However, their clear and simple mathematical formulation allows highly accurate extrapolations into new environmental space (Elith et al. 2006, Kuhn et al. in press). There are also many ways to evaluate model accuracy. [hemostcommonly accepted measutes ate Cohen’s Kappa (Cohen 1960) and AUC (Hanley & McNeil 1982). Both measure the agreement between observed and modelled occurrence (threshold dependent occurrence for Kappa and threshold independent occurrence probability for AUC) and depend on four cases of agreement: cases where actual occurrences were modelled correctly (right presence) or incorrectly (false absence) and cases where actual absences were modelled correctly (right absences) or incorrectly (false presences). Unfortunately, all four cases are weighted equally, which may result in extraordinarily high accuracy values when accuracy is dominated by just one of the four cases (Lobo et al. 2008). For instance, a number of species like Lycaena helle (Fig. D.1.7) and Coenonympha oedippus (Fig. D.1.8), or Euphydryas cynthia (Fig. D.1.14) and Bolona titania (Fig. D.1.15) and many others (as listed in table D.1.3) have a very restricted distribution with a high number of absences and a low number of presences. The model was able to predict most of the absences correctly (right absence rate) but not many of the presences (false absence rate). As a consequence, the models give high AUC values because of the dominating effect of the right absences. However, for ecological niche modelling, the false absence rate is of most interest since it shows how well the model fits the actual occurrence, while false presences can easily be a consequence of other interacting limiting factors. To take this into account, we provide false absence rates as well as other values for all modelled species in a table in Appendix 1 and the most extreme cases in Tables D.1.1-4. D. Discussion of methodological limitations 641 Table D.1.1: 38 European butterflies with the highest AUC values (AUC > 0.95): (incl. overall risk categories with full and without dispersal) i Risk page Species categ. no disp disp 372 410 6 0.99 2 0.99 | ER i: 1 1 1 N ee) — N pas ee) 170 HHH 0.99 84 | Pkebejus glandon (PRUNNER, 1798) 0.99 514 | Erebia erplyle (Peever, 1836) | ERR | 0.99 530 0.99 14 i) 0.99 ea 1S 0.98 8 ne] 194 | Lycaena ottomana (LEFEBVRE, 1830) 0.98 288 a 8 HH HH 0.98 HH LE Soa ae) [ie [Pontia calldice (Hownex, 1800) LR | LR Phebus orbitulus Pwunnen, 1798) | ER | ER 312 Euphydryas cynthia ([SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) 412 414 Euphydryas intermedia (MENETRIES, 1859) R 0.98 458 R 0.98 Apatura metis (FREYER, 1829) reed Erebia melampus (FUESSLI, 1775) 536 0.98 554 Erebia montana (PRUNNER, 1798) 0.98 574 0.98 59 0.98 LR LR | AR | | HR | LR | HER | ir | R | 098 | Sree rR R | | AR | 612 HHHR 0.98 LR LR LR LR LR LR Hipparchia fatua (FREYER, 1845) 0.97 486 | Coenonympha gardetta (PRUNNER, 1798) 28 | Erebia embla (BECKLIN, 1791) Oi R R R 0.96 | oR | 097 100 | Gegenes pumilio (HOFFMANSEGG, 1804) fon 0.96 HITE 0.98 Sie] = Ses | LR [Erebia pluto Pruner, 1798) LR Ss ea | LR | ER R R ted IB ake HR HR HR R HR 0.98 HR HR HR HR HR HR fed HR Melanargia arge (SULZER, 1776) 134. | Zeoris eupheme (EspER, 1805) HHHR 0.97 f 4 | Erynnis marloyi (BotspuvaL, 1834) jal (L 336 | Polyommatus dolus (HUBNER, 1823) 162 | Cokas phicomone (EsPER, 1780) YE > R R R R R R R ine R R R 4 | Pyreus centaureae (RAMBUR, 1840) R S R es) | ER [aang ee) | LR 136 0.96 a Ea) ue esi Sas 642 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Table D.1.2: 34 European butterflies with the highest Kappa values (> 0.54): (incl. overall risk categories with full and without dispersal) i Risk page Species categ. full] categ.no | Kappa dis disp 286 | Pkbejus aquilo (BOISDUVAL, 1832) HHHR | HHHR 0.78 170 | Cokas hecla LEFEBVRE, 1836 FELELRY | EEE: 0.77 372 | Boloria charicla (SCHNEIDER, 1794) fel teiebe) | MERE: OS 4 | Pyreus centaureae (RAMBUR, 1840) Ore 28 | Erebia embla (BECKLIN, 1791) 0.70 530. | Erebia disa (BECKLIN, 1791) EVER Ss) ete: 0.72 N 0.68 0.64 eae ee) Ses) 16 | Oeneisjutta Hopnen, 1806) ERR PR | OR | 066 a | ER 0.64 164 | Cohas palaeno (LINNAEUS, 1758) 514 0.64 R 288 Plebejus orbitulus (PRUNNER, 1798) 0.64 380 0.64 i es 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.62 } R R } R R R Enis ne ea ares Es ors a en eo [| [ener rd ar [| as pe Tae | es : Te [om : Tae | me _ : en eres ee ee ars eel Cae | io R R R R R R 282 Plebejus optilete (IKNOCH, 1781) 284 H 564 Re 374 0 158 384 4 Erebia pandrose (BORKHAUSEN, 1788) 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.59 059 410 | Euphydryas iduna (DALMAN, 1816) HHHR Erebia eriphyle (FREYER, 1836) 184 Gonepteryx cleopatra (LINNAEUS, 1767) 192 Bolona freija (BECKLIN, 1791) Lycaena virgaureae (LINNAEUS, 1758) N 1h Oecnets glacials (MOLL, 1785) Parnassius phoebus (Fprictus, 1793) 88 | Carterocephalus silicolus (MEIGEN, 1829) 0.59 0.58 358 | Brenthis ino (ROTTEMBURG, 1775) 554 | Erebia montana (PRUNNER, 1798) 502 | Aphantopus hyperantus (LINNAEUS, 1758) R R R R Ts R R R R R R R 0.58 0.58 612 | Oeners norna (BECKLIN, 1791) HHHAR | HHHAR 408 | Araschnia levana (LINNAEUS, 1758) 0.58 364 | Boloria eunomia (EsPER, 1799) R 0.57 Boloria aquilonaris (STICHEL, 1908) 484 | Coenonympha ghverion (BORKHAUSEN, 1788) R R Bolonia frigga (BECKLIN, 1791) R R R R R R H ike Ke Ke 510 | Erebia iigea (LINNAEUS, 1758) 0.55 Plebejus glandon (PRUNNER, 1798) ih ike in il H ile ile dy H ae ib H H eh Al A! Ee H H iE ial H isl Aly H ile H All ile H ale ile H re ae Ss 486_| Coenonympha gardetta (Prunnen, 1798) | ER TOR | 057 p IR | OR | IR | WR 162 | Cokas phicomone (EsPER, 1780) R 0.55 498 | Pyronia cecilia (VALLANTIN, 1894) | oR | HHHR | 055 D. Discussion of methodological limitations 643 Table D.1.3: 44 European butterflies with the highest percentage of false absences (> 0.55): (incl. overall risk categories with full and without dispersal) Risk Species categ. full | categ. no i di diel false Lote abs R -f _ D N OQ 56 386 542 4 H 0.90 0.84 | HER | ER 0.83 eal 0.82 H H Scolitantides bavius (EVERSMANN, 1832) Bolonia graeca (STAUDINGER, 1870) Erebia epistygne (HUBNER, 1819) Carcharodus baeticus (RAMBUR, 1840) 2 | Ania anteros (FREYER, 1838) 6 | Speaka phlomidis (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1845) 34 | Polommatus ripartii (FREYER, 1830) 80 | Coenonympha rhodopensis Exwes, 1900 544 202 | Lycaena candens (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1844) 174 | Cohas chrysotheme (EsPER, 1780) 240 | Cupido osiris (MEIGEN, 1829) 188 558 PA 8 94 108 124 332 290 148 8 . 9 36 z iE H dist Pp z Erebia ottomana (HERRICH-SCHAFFER, 1847) R ‘el | 544 | | 202. | Bical z z | HR | 0.75 Lycaena helle ((SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) Erebia melas (HERBST, 1796) Tomares ballus (Fasrictus, 1787) Pyrgus sidae (ESPER, 1782) Fipparchia volgensis (MAZOCHIN-PORSHNYAKOV, 1952) R R alle R R R R R R 1K R R Ie R HR R R R R R R R R R R R R R R On ; On XS) On HHR 0.69 Zerynthia cerisyt (GODART, 1822) Leptidea duponcheh (SYAUDINGER, 1871) Polyommatus admetus (EsreR, 1785) IP 0.69 R R 0.67 | HER | 0.69 RS] | TI | Plkebejus sephirus (FRIVALDSZKY, 1835) R 0.67 Pieris mannit (MAYER, 1851) Carcharodus lavatherae (ESPER, 1783) Coenonympha oedippus (FABRICIUS, 1787) Coenonympha leander (ESPER, 1784) Polyommatus dolus (HUBNER, 1823) 94 | Lycaena ottomana (LEFEBVRE, 1830) 216 | Callophrys avis CHAPMAN, 1909 412 | Exphydryas cynthia (|SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) 100 602 560 416 De tat da P P 0.72 Scare P P iS Ro Jal R Jal R R H H R R Jel IR R H R jel Jal R R R ix z ils ie I lle lle ils is i i iB le Ny ee 0.64 , R 0.63 R Ie Ie ls R Is R L I R R R let H a eal H lel H H z Gegenes pumilio (HOFFMANSEGG, 1804) 0.62 Fipparchia senthes (FRUHSTORFER, 1908) | HHR | 0.61 Erebia oeme (EsPer, 1805) eae Euphydryas maturna (LINNAEUS, 1758) Te Erebia styx (FREYER, 1834) Erebia casstoides (REINER & HOHENWARTH, 1792) (species complex) R R 0.61 ily 0.60 H lal On ra =P oOTHR ITA] oO oe) N | oo H R | 338 oe Polyommatus damon (|SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) = Ss S S ise S > x. S is a to fy — ~I Qo em I >) 644 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 4 Cupido alcetas (HOFFMANSEGG, 1804) Papilio alexanor Esper, 1799 Gonepteryx farinosa ZELLER, 1847 Melanargia russiae (ESPER, 1784) Euchloe belemia (EsPER, 1798) Boloria titania (Esrer, 1793) Mehtaea varia (MEYER-DOR, 1851) Table D.1.4: 36 European butterflies with the highest percentage of false presences (> 0.39): (incl. overall risk categories with full and without dispersal) i Risk p disp 144 150 | Prerts rapae (LINNAEUS, 1758) 154 | Prerts napi (LINNAEUS, 1758) 466 388 494 248 504 | Maniola jurtina (LINNAEUS, 1758) Papilio machaon LINNAEUS, 1758 Callophrys rabi (LINNAEUS, 1758) Abporia crataegi (LINNAEUS, 1758) fi 390 | Vanessa cardui (LINNAEUS, 1758) 396 296 | Ania agestis ([SCHIFFERMULLER], 1775) 402 Leptidea sinapis (LINNAEUS, 1758) & Leptidea real REISSINGER, 1990 (species complex) i | iS Oe 66 | Boloria euphrosyne (LINNAEUS, 1758) 76 | Plebejus argus (LINNAEUS, 1758) 168 | Cokas croceus (GEOFFROY, 1785) 262 | Glaucopsyche alexis (PODA, 1761) Thymehcus lineola (QCHSENHEIMER, 1806) 0.47 [rr [045 [045 PR By BR PR PR: PR PR PR PR Pare PR PR PR PR PR ArAre 13 PR PR PR ded Re Bae Pre LR PR Pit = D. Discussion of methodological limitations 645 Ta | Gonpes a epwcs 5) | pe [pk [048 — | 352 | Argynnis niobe Linnavus, 1758) | PR LPR 043 D.2 Interaction of taxonomic status and modelling results A special problem in niche modelling is presented by sister species or sibling species. They typically occupy very similar niches because they originated from the same ancestors, but are normally allopatric in distribution (no overlap in their areas). If we take the present distribution of just one of such a pair, we are bound to experience problems in the modelling, as the niche model will encompass the entire distribution of the climate space which may be occupied by the sister species. ‘This leads to rather poor modelling results. If the distribution of these species is pooled, the model fits are normally much better. Within this atlas we repeatedly came across this problem. ‘The selection of some species was already affected, for example when some of the sister species had a very limited distribution (below our threshold of 20 UTM grids) and thus have been excluded from our analysis. However, their climate space might have been modelled through the other sister or sibling species. We have selected the following examples to illustrate some of the effects: First we have a more detailed look at the Ewchloe ausonia complex. The maps and results presented in part C.2 include Ewchloe ausonta (s.str.), Euchloe cramert, and Euchloe simplonia. lf we differentiate between the results for the complex and the two three included here, we can see substantial differences in the output. ‘These are summarized in table D.2.1 and also presented as maps (Figures D.2.1-4). The results suggest that E. ausonia (s.stt.) would suffer much less from climate change and under all scenarios would gain in climate space assuming full dispersal. In contrast, the climate space of FE. crameri and E. simplonia would decrease under nearly all scenarios. The models for the three species together lies in between these results. Although there are large areas of false presences, these are compensated by right presences and right absences in E. crameriand E. ausonia (LEr8-) 9bb- | (Yocr'rb-) SET- | (%98°S6-) LOOP- | (ohE'OL-) 9E6T-]| (%H6'TE-) LBL-| (YbB'STL) ILLT | CHbT'SS-) TLHTZ- | (%16'S-) S9Z- SVUD (%66°SL>) ZOP- | (ETT) ELI- | CESSES) BLbE-| oL'6S>) ZobZ- | (%HLT9Z-) 9Z9-| (PSL) ELT | (LG'Sb-) BS0Z- | (%67'L-) LZE- | nave (ples) ebb | (SESE) LBI- | ColF'69-) LORZ-| (66'S) Sho] (ELI) 6It-] BSE) O9LL| (LTE) otI- |r Bee | OCS] (%19'L9-) 85¢- | (%6ELI) Z6- | (obeLS-) 68Ez-| (H9ELZ) ZHII- | (%LETI-) 96z-| (68TH) 9ZOI | (%S6'7-) 6ZOT- (aLoret) 98s | SVED. (moos) oe- [meet 19 — | ores) toze-| Carre) 9er1- | Corre) zee-]_ @oes'ze) 8LL| (o'r) O801-] (oe07) 16- | aavE| (%61'79-) 67E- (68°) O1- | @8S'LP-) 9861- | (%89'E1-) LLS- | (Es'tI-) es] (% 19°28) P08 | (68 LI) ZO8- (ngs) tL | Saas essodstp oN, | yessodsip Jn | essodstp on, | [essodstp qn | [essodstp on | yessodstp Jn | Jestodstp on, | [essodstp NY [oo] s]J9o 67S bLib 76ET 8th pis pordnos0 Apussoig piuojduts aojqgony LLIUD AD 90]GINT “S'S DIUOSND 30]GINT xajduros pruosnp aojqony Sse Ajayeredas eiuojduis aojyonyg pue VWaWeID ao/YONF ‘(@Suas }OUjS Ou} Ul) BUOSNe BojyONF pue x9jdwod e/uOsNe BsojYyONF du} JO} Huljjapow syewjo Jo syNsey :1°S'G sIGeL Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 646 D. Discussion of methodological imitations 647 (s.str.). In the EF. ausonia complex and in E. simplonia there are less false presences but more false absences. This leads to the effect that the AUC values are rather similar in all cases. Few false absences In many instances we come across sister species that can be modelled quite well independently from each other, with little overlap between the derived climate niches. A good example 1s Scohtantides baton and Scolitantides vicrama, (Yable D.2.2. and Figures D.2.5 & 6). Here the models show differences in climate requirements which suggests different evolutionary histories for the two species. Similar in terms of output statistics are the sister species Lycaena hippothoe and Lycaena candens (Yable D.2.3; Figures D.2.7-8). However the map of the absolute distribution is very different between the two species and the distribution points of L. candens are to a large extent included 1n the climate space of L. hippothoe. ‘This contributes to the large number of false presences which in general lead to the low AUC. The climate space model of L. candens 1s relatively poor if we look at right presences as well as false absences and the high AUC 1s due to the many right absences across Europe. Here a combination of both species would clearly lead to an improvement of the climate models and highlights the “disadvantage” of the separate modelling of sister species which we can observe in several other cases. ‘Two other examples of sister species ate shown below: a) Spzaka sertorius and Spiaha orbifer (Lable D.2.4; Figures D.2.9-10); and b) Hipparchia semele and Hipparchia senthes (Yable D.2.5; Figures D.2.11-12). Table D.2.2: Results of climate modelling for the sister species Scolitantides baton and Scolitantides vicrama a Scolitantides baton Scolitantides vicrama Presently occupied grid el Full baa No AEBS Full soe No sreeens 648 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Figure D.2.1: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of the Euchloe ausonia complex 7 Figure D.2.3: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Euchloe crameri Figure D.2.5: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Scolitantides baton = Figure D.2.2: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Euchloe ausonia (in the strict sense) Figure D.2.4: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Euchloe simplonia Figure D.2.6: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Scolitantides vicrama D. Discussion of methodological limitations 649 Table D.2.3: Results of climate modelling for the sister species Lycaena hippothoe and Lycaena candens [_ ES Lycaena hippothoe Lycaena candens Presently occupied grid 14109 cells | Fulldispersal_| No dispersal | Full dispersal Table D.2.4: Results of climate modelling for the sister species Spialia sertorius and Spialia orbifer P| Spicatia sertorius | Spialia orbifer occupied grid 6768 2728 cells | Fullidispersal_| No dispersal_| Full dispersal_| No dispersal_| Table D.2.5: Results of climate modelling for the sister species Hipparchia semele and Hipparchia senthes a Hipparchia semele Hipparchia senthes Presently occupied grid 13833 840 cells 73 : a | Full dispersal No dispersal Full dispersal No dispersal 650 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Figure D.2.7: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Lycaena hippothoe Figure D.2.9: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Spialia sertorius FigureD.2.11:Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic niche of Hipparchia semele Figure D.2.8: Actual distribution and modelled present climatic niche of Lycaena candens FigureD.2.10:Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic niche of Spialia orbifer FigureD.2.12: Actualdistribution and modelled present climatic niche of Hipparchia senthes Jk; —— OUTLOOK: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION 652 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies E.1 Direct and indirect climate change impacts on butterflies and biodiversity Climate change affects biodiversity and ecosystem processes both directly and indirectly. An example of a direct effect is when critical climate limits are altered, which directly affect species physiological mechanisms (e.g. winter temperatures or annual or seasonal precipitation patterns). Indirect effects can be through complex interactions with other processes, such as invasion of exotics, loss of pollinators and interactions with environmental chemicals. Further responses to climate are due to interactions with land use and land use change. Habitats and trophic interactions Biodiversity responds to the distribution of habitats as well as to climate factors (and other pressures), so understanding habitat change is also critical. Climate change may alter: (1) the distribution of clmatically-suitable areas for a given species, and thus change the geographic match between otherwise suitable habitats and climate (potentially endangering the species), (11) the distribution of suitable habitats, for example if vegetation structure 1s affected by climate, (11) the distribution of land-use, and (tv) what is currently recognised as suitable habitat for a given species may change if habitat choice 1s at least partly determined by thermal environment. In addition, (v) land-use may change for reasons unconnected to climate. Although we do not expect particular habitats to move with climate change as intact collections of species, climate-driven changes to the boundaries of structural elements of the vegetation (e.g., of evergreen and deciduous forest; tree lines) may be as predictable as the boundaries of individual species. Such changes would have major implications for the community structure of all taxonomic groups. A map of the changes of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) under the BAMBU scenario is shown if Figure E.1.1 for the presence and the conditions around 2080. Many of the other habitat/trophic interactions mentioned above have been researched in recent years with the project ALARM (Settele et al. 2005, 2007, 2008). In the context of butterflies, analyses have been started to study effects of climate change in combination with other factors. An example is the study on Boloria titania (see page 638ff). Here the model was not able to predict the occurrence of this species in the Baltic States, but the model became far more accurate when the constraints of the larval host plant Pojgonum bistorta were included (Schweiger et al. in press). This shows that including other essential abiotic and biotic environmental factors can help to improve model accuracy, but in most E. Outlook: Climate change and butterfly conservation 653 Anchclalpie desert ATCEC/alpepe burda * Boreal/alpine mixed woodland ® Borealalping conifer forest Heriboreal mixed forms = Temperate beech and mixed beech forest ® Temperate mixed broadleaved fonast Thermophitous mined broad-leaved forest © Mediterancan sclerophyiiceus foresiwoodland © Mediterancan sclemphyfous shrubland ® Steppe woodland Sleppe Fig. E.1.1: Modelled current (averaged for 1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) potential natural vegetation (PNV) in Europe under the BAMBU (IPCC A2; HadCM3) emission scenario; from Hickler et al. (in press, modified). cases we lack crucial information about the multitude of species interactions that may add to the effects of climate. Climate envelopes for European butterflies as a starting point for future research and conservation “Pure” climate change models as presented in this atlas are only a first, but very important step. Until more sophisticated methods and models become available, we have to rely on what we have in order to draw conclusions for conservation actions. Moreover, until we determine exactly how climate change (in concert with other factors) will affect biodiversity, it is sensible to consider worst case scenarios under the cautionary principle. Consequently, we have selected the worst case result under all the given scenarios until 2080 for our classification of climate risk. However, even under a very conservative classification of risk, the vast majority of European butterfly species has to be regarded to be at risk through climate change. An important next step will thus be to test model outputs against field data for butterflies, as these ate a group of species that are expected to track climate changes quickly due to their sensitivity and short generation time. In particular, we can expect the habitat generalists and mobile species to be the first and quickest to respond. The literature already contains many examples of apparent responses to climate change (e.g, Walther et al. 2002, Parmesan & Yohe 2003), but genuine tests against model predictions are largely lacking. If we have a closer look at our simulation results, which are based on the distribution of species from roughly 1980 to 2000, we can see that some predictions seem to have become true already. Good examples are ° Cacyreus marshalh, which has already spread across Italy; ° Plebejus argiades, which has moved northward e.g. in Southern Germany; 654 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies ° Pieris mannit, which 1n 2008 has suddenly expanded its Northern range limit in Switzerland and in August 2008 has reached Germany; ° Brenthis daphne, which has extended its range from Alsace to Southwest Germany since the mid 1990s. In future studies considerable attention will have to be paid to the development of a global climate change envelope model and model testing, because statistically appropriate and ecologically plausible predictive models are a key prerequisite for the assessment of the biodiversity risks resulting from the projected climate change. Models will also have to be improved to assess impacts of climate and landscape change scenarios on biodiversity at the European scale, assessing the role of species characteristics in projected susceptibility. Physiological traits (e.g., temperature thresholds for development; evapotranspiration) will have to be considered as well as functional characteristics, such as the types of habitats occupied and dispersal capacity (Warren et al. 2001, Luoto & Hetkkinnen 2008). Climate change and evolution Recent reviews and meta-analyses of aquatic and terrestrial studies from throughout the world have revealed consistent evidence of climate change effects on species. These include the advancement of the timing of life-cycles (phenology), northward expansions, southern retractions, movement up mountain slopes, and abundance changes such that species with southerly distributions have tended to increase in the northern hemisphere, whilst northerly distributed species have declined (e.g. Parmesan 1996, Parmesan et al. 1999, Walther et al. 2001, Parmesan & Yohe 2003, Wilson et al. 2005). Furthermore, recent evolutionary shifts in phenology, habitat choice and migration direction are also consistent with a response to climate warming (Berthold et al. 1992, Berthold & Pulido 1994, Berthold 1998, Bradshaw & Holzapfel 2001, Thomas et al. 2001). At the receding edge of a species range, local populations are forced “outside the niche”. This raises the question whether sufficient evolutionary speed 1s available to rescue such a species which clearly faces extinction (Pease et al. 1989, Holt 1990, 2008, Gomulkiewicz & Holt 1995)? Here we need deeper insight to understand both niche conservatism (species seem to have much the same niche limits over a broad geographical range or over long periods of evolutionary history; Bradshaw 1991, Holt & Gaines 1992, Wiens & Graham 2005) and rapid niche evolution (Reznick & Ghalambor 2001). Butterflies can evolve quite rapidly in ways that could influence their distributional limits. There are examples of species shifting host preferences over periods of less than ten years (Singer et al. 1993), and if these host species have different geographical distributions, a large shift in the butterfly’s range can easily be expected. Rapid evolution of dispersal abilities is likewise known from butterflies (Mill et al. 1999), with spreading species developing both a larger thorax and a greater ability to fly in newly colonised patches. Geographical ranges reflect both niches and dispersal abilities, which can each E. Outlook: Climate change and butterfly conservation evolve and lead to range shifts. In other cases, butterfly niches can be maintained, even over very large ranges (Crozier & Dwyer 2006). In a study of a North-American skipper, one basic aspect of the species’ niche — the thermal environments in which it can persist, versus where it declines toward extinction - appears to have been conserved ovet an enormous distance (Holt 2008). Understanding the reasons and mechanisms of niche conservatism, and anticipating when to expect rapid niche evolution instead, is of crucial importance. However, our current level of understanding is extremely limited. Much of the literature on niche conservatism 1s essentially phenomenological in nature, reporting correlations between species distributions and various environmental attributes (“ecological niche models”). This provides an essential starting point but, according to Holt (2008), what we really need is a deeper mechanistic understanding of the factors that either constrain or facilitate niche evolution. He states that “this understanding requires one to take a highly integrative approach to science, as explanations for niche conservatism can reflect a wide spectrum of forces and constraints, from limitations on genetic variation (Blows & Hoffmann 2005), to tradeoffs emerging from how organisms are engineered from the gene to the whole phenotype (Hansen & Houle 2004), to the details of demography and spatial movement patterns (Holt & Gaines 1992, Holt 1996, Kawecki 1995), to the nexus of interspecific interactions (Ackerly 2003, Case et al. 2005).” (Holt 2008, p. 3). We sincerely hope that this atlas also serves as a tool to encourage research into these topics, as butterflies seem to be an ideal group of organisms to study. We know a lot about the species, they can be raised in the laboratory (genetic and functional studies of traits), they have short generations, they are popular and diurnal, and they are ectotherms (hence sensitive to thermal conditions). They also typically have close interactions with other species (host plants, predators, parasitoids; e.g, van Nouhuys & Hanski 2004, Anton et al. 2007, Schweiger et al. in press), which makes the interspecific dimensions of their niches amenable to quantitative modelling (e.g., Mouquet et al. 2005, Johst et al. 2006). Thus Holt (2008) suggests that these traits collectively make butterflies potentially highly useful in developing a deeper understanding of the phenomenon of niche conservatism, which not only would be a satisfying intellectual endeavour tn its own right, but also of vital importance for conservation (see chapter E.3, page 658f.). Biodiversity Risk Assessment Our study has also shown that biodiversity risk assessment to environmental changes is heavily based on species modelling for current and future conditions (e.g. Segurado & Araujo 2004, Thuiller et al. 2003) and conservation planning for biodiversity (e.g. Araujo & Williams 2000, Araujo & Williams 2001, Araujo 2002). The first vulnerability assessments of European biodiversity were undertaken in a global change context, but the challenge is now turning these broad-scale assessments of vulnerability into probabilistic assessments of risk at the regional (e.g. national) and local scales at which mitigation strategies must be developed. 655 656 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies E.2 Butterflies as indicators of environmental change Butterfly indicator developments Government representatives at the 2002 World Summit of Sustainable Development pledged ‘a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010’. ‘The commitment of the EU to protecting biodiversity is even stronger by aiming at halting biodiversity loss by 2010 (Balmford et al. 2005, Gregory et al. 2005). Butterflies may be useful as biodiversity indicators for reporting on the development towards the EU 2010 target. Unlike most other groups of insects, butterflies have considerable resonance with both the general public and decision-makers (Kiihn et al. 2008a). Butterflies are also relatively easy to recognize and data on butterflies have been collected for a long time and by many voluntary observers. The method of monitoring butterflies is well described, extensively tested and scientifically sound (Pollard 1977, Pollard & Yates 1993). As a result butterflies are the only invertebrate taxon for which it is currently possible to estimate rates of decline in many parts of the world (de Heer et al. 2005, Thomas 2005). However, butterflies can only be regarded as good biodiversity indicators if it is possible to generalise thetr trends to a broader set of species groups (Gregory et al. 2005). There is still some debate on how well butterflies meet this criterion. Hambler & Speight (1996, 2004) claimed that this group 1s likely to experience greater declines than other organisms due to their herbivorous life strategies and thermophily, but Thomas & Clarke (2004) convincingly rejected both arguments. Based on a comprehensive review of studies into their life-history traits, relative sensitivity to climate change, and adjusted extinction rates, Thomas (2005) concluded that butterflies may be considered representative indicators of trends observed in most other terrestrial insects, which together form a major part of biodiversity. Trends per butterfly species can be combined into a unified measure of biodiversity. To achieve this, Van Swaay et al. (in press) followed Gregory et al. (2005) 1n averaging indices of species to give each species an equal weight 1n the resulting indicators. When positive and negative changes of indices are in balance, we would expect their mean to remain stable. If more species decline than increase, the mean should go down and vice versa. Thus, the mean of such an index 1s considered a measure of biodiversity change. The results of national butterfly monitoring schemes may be combined to create an indicator at a supra-national level (see also Henry et al. in press). Based on the procedure described for European birds (see Gregory et al. 2005), a preliminary erassland butterfly indicator has been developed (Van Swaay & Van Strien 2005). The countties covered were mainly from Western Europe. The results showed that average erassland butterfly abundance has declined by almost 50% during the last 15 years, which is most probably linked with the agricultural intensification in Western Europe (Van Swaay & Warren 1999, Gregory et al. 2005). The decline is much stronger than E. Outlook: Climate change and butterfly conservation the decline of the farmland bird indicator, which has fallen by 19% in the same period (Gregory et al. 2008). This corresponds with the findings in the UK where butterflies have experienced greater losses than birds (Thomas et al. 2004). The European Environmental Agency has already recommended the development of European butterfly indicators (EEA 2007a), and these may lead to indicators that are comparable to the farmland bird indicator, which has been adopted as a biodiversity indicator by the EU (Gregory et al. 2005). ‘The addition of a butterfly indicator would be valuable to complement the bird indicator to report against political targets (e.g. the EU’s 2010 target), because butterflies operate at smaller spatial scales and more closely represent insects. The grassland butterfly indicator offers the possibility to detect large scale effects of either abandonment of agricultural land (especially occurring in Eastern and Southern Europe) or intensification of agricultural practices, a process that has slowed in parts of Western Europe, but is ongoing in many other European regions. Butterflies as climate change indicators Recent climate change has already affected the distributions of many species (Hill et al. 2001, Walther et al. 2002, Parmesan & Yohe 2003, Wilson et al. 2005, Franco et al. 2006, Fickling et al. 2006) but future changes are likely to have even more severe impacts (Sala et al. 2000, Thomas et al. 2004, Uhuiller et al. 2005, Araujo et al. 2006, Broenniman et al. 2006). These impacts are often assessed with bioclimatic envelope models which relate the current distribution of species to climatic variables to derive projected future distributions under climate change (e.g. Huntley et al. 2004, Heikkinen et al. 2006). The restriction of studies just to climatic variables has been criticized by some authors (e.g. Davis et al. 1998, Pearson & Dawson 2003) and there have been calls for the consideration of other factors that determine species distributions such as dispersal, land cover, and biotic interactions (Guisan & Thuiller 2005, Ohlemuller et al. 2006, Ibanez et al. 2006, Heikkinen et al. 2006, Schweiger et al. in press). However, we decided to base the current atlas entirely on climatic variables in order to provide a complete overview of potential climate change impacts for a group of ectothermic insects which are expected to react relatively quickly on climatic changes. In addition to the grassland butterfly indicator, there is a good possibility of producing a climate change indicator for European butterflies that would summarise trends in species whose distributions may be most affected by climate change. Similar indicators are also in progress for European birds (Gregory et al. 2007). The development of the indicator can, among others, be based on the results of the present atlas, which highlights species for which we might expect changes within longer time periods. As the relationship between abundance and distribution of species ts well supported scientifically, we can test whether species that are expected to gain niche space actually increase in abundance within their core areas of distribution, and where there ate decreases in abundance towards the trailing (mostly southerly or low altitude) edge of distribution. 657 658 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies E.3 Climate change and butterfly conservation The results of this atlas show that climate change 1s likely to have a profound effect on European butterflies. Although some aspects may seem unstoppable, there are still some ways to mitigate some of the negative impacts. 1) Maintain large populations in diverse habitats In order to allow species to adapt and give them more time to evolve, we should adjust land use and management practices to maintain large populations of butterflies and create or maintain diverse microclimatic conditions which could mitigate climate change effects on the larger scale. There are many examples of how microclimatic conditions are able to support populations of butterflies in areas that are by macroclimatic standards far out of their climatic niche. Good examples are species like Lycaena helle, Conenonympha oedippus, Boloria eunomia and Boloria aquilonanis. We need to ensure effective conservation of existing protected areas and important habitats and manage them to maintain large, diverse populations. The deliberate creation of habitat heterogeneity within such sites may also give species scope to shift within their habitats and move to cooler microclimatic conditions. ‘To achieve this on the ground we need well resourced and targeted agri-environment schemes, and place biodiversity at the heart of forestry and land use policies. 2) Encourage mobility across the landscape We need to ensure that we reduce, and 1f possible remove, any barriers to dispersal in the landscape. Many butterfly habitats are now highly fragmented and we should place far more effort on habitat restoration and improving the links between habitat patches to give butterflies a chance to move and respond to climate change. We need to place far more emphasis on the conservation of whole landscapes and to build ecosystem resilience and connectivity — 1n particular in connection with the Natura 2000 network and its coherence. Well resourced and targeted agti-environment schemes are essential in delivering on the ground, together with enlightened planning policies. 3) Reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses There is a great opportunity to influence the general policy on reducing ereenhouse gas emissions (as generally described in the SEDG scenario; see chapter A.2, page 13f.). As we have mentioned in the methods, the results of our scenarios are not actual predictions and we should use them for what they ate most suited: to compare different overall futures. If we translate the overall E. Outlook: Climate change and butterfly conservation 659 pictures presented in chapter C.4 (page 629ff.) into action for conservation, the vast majority of species would have a more sustainable future under the SEDG scenario compared to the futures under GRAS. 4) Allow maximum time for species adaptation The results show us that the climate change risks for butterflies increase much faster after a certain lag phase. This could give us hope that if we take immediate action there is a chance to avoid some of the worst effects on the majority of our butterfly species — and most probably on other aspects of biodiversity! Our hope is that we can direct environmental change to encourage as much adaptation by natural selection as possible, which might contribute to the evolutionary rescue of species. Given the pace of environmental change we are inflicting upon the rest of the diversity on the planet, the living world needs all the help it can get (Holt, 2008) — and we hope that we can contribute to this through this atlas, particularly as a tisk communication tool. 5) Conduct further research on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity Further research is needed so that we continue to improve our understanding of climate change and its impacts on biodiversity. The findings will be vital to improve our adaptation strategies in the future. This study is an important step in understanding the impact on butterflies, but highlights the limitations of current models. In particular, we need to develop models for the approx. 150 species that have such restricted distributions that they could not be reasonably modelled using the current method. F ————— APPENDICES, REFERENCES AND INDEX 662 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Appendix 1 — Model performance 663 Appendix 1 Poros [ero [avo [eso [aro | a0 | seo 100 | RR Ca RC SIND I / STE SHAT RHA Se] NS | 5OOE | | GN | Ste | (NS 00] For NT || Ssh || NS" | 00 Ay 1G) BEG) S| ALG) AUG) NS NS 3 | INS 5 ENS NS eee abs | bene ea CO] 0 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 664 s]J29 potdnss0 Eu co redex Tro (xoqduros) (9Q8] “ANAOEL) vewosup sojqouTy (Q6LI “Uadsy) vemajog aojqonrzy (GOST ‘asdsy) aaagdua suusozy [SQ] ‘aH VHOS-HORIMAL] MaUMasd SUBGIOGIUTZ eer 698] AAONIAAV.LS Sapeouag dua suupq20qjupy oer (QGL] ‘SQUVNNI'Y) Saueuppins supqooqjuEy Rea (L881 ‘NOINA}) Zasvom vopydrT | 9Z1 (LL8L UAONIANV.LS) Yaqouodup vapudry | pZL (xofduros) 66] WAONISsRY Had / (BGLT ‘SAAVNNIT) sedouss vapydry | TI 66L] “Uaasy sounxan oyrdey | OTI QG/] ‘SAHVNNYY “ovgovu oyrdrg | 811 (SLT ‘SOaVNNIT) sumqopod sopyaq dt | OLT (QGL] SSAAVNNI'Y) o7odp suissvusng | pT (COLI ‘snioriavy)) sugaogd sumssvusvy | TY oO loo) — (QG/] ‘SQUVNNI'Y) audsomoum suissvusny | OTL (ZZ8I “IAVAOD) asusa vaqgu4a7 | BOT (SLL ‘[waTiowaainos)) vuaxtyod viqqud4a7 | QT (LOLI SSANVNNI'Y) Duan viqqud4a7 | FO (COLT ‘snIoniavy) sumppomsou sauasory | TOT (POST ‘DDASNVIWIOP) oymund souadary | (KOT (LLL “taasy) suunyds sapozgaQ | 36 (QGLT ‘SQHVNNI‘]) Ducdoo vuadsaty oO nN (GLLT ‘AHOUNEINALLOY) Hoan snoyauigy.| (LOLT ‘vaog) sagsauts snoyaulg | 76 (9081 “USINISHNASHOQ) yoauy suoyaud | 0 (67ST ‘NSO Supornyes sruypgqo04sajAvy | QQ (LLLI ‘sVTIVg) “oman suvyqar01gavy) | 98 Pav SSSSSCSC*i 665 Appendix 1 (QGL] ‘SQUVNNI'T) avaimvouns vuenal T (COST “HIMoMvy) odsip puanat] (GLLL ‘ea TiIonesetHos)) aaq vuavaT (TOLL ‘SQaVNNI']) svarygd vuanal T (LOLT ‘SQaWNNI'T) ayodog xtaagqou0y Lygy aria, vsoutavl xilsagqauory (GL ‘SQUVNNI‘]) ampgs X4ayPauory GOGT “AMA Seswaunavfy svyoy (8GLT ‘SANVNNI'T) yolg svyoD (OSL “WHasy) aacaqzosuga spy 07D (OSLI Wadsy) aopiuslu svyory OCR] “ANACHAA] 0770q SVY0D (SQL SAOWNHOND) Suar0u9 spyOy (SORT SUAS) aynua svyoy (QGL] ‘SAHVNNI‘Y) ouarynd svyoy (OSL “adasy) auomongd svy0D (xojdusos) (27. ] ‘snioniavy) esmpa / (GLI ‘SQaVNNI’]) ampydop vyuog (OO8T WANAOED) apyyr) yuo (L6OLT “MANaNE) aweuolag seer (8GL] ‘SANVNNI'‘]) 20 Susaig (R781 UAAAD) aera seat (QGL ‘SASVNNI'T) aga sada (TGQT “UMAVIN) Zape Svat (NOT AHONIGAVLS) aeadamsy Setar (QG/] ‘SQAVNNI') anoussndg Siar (QGL] ‘SQUVNNI'T) soarynus vuodE7 (POST MANINED) S207 aojqoury | cro | sso | coo | oor | 860 | ogo | 980 | (PPR WaVHOS-HORTaAp]) swapuns ouenat T | z0z._ | TEETER | CESS ERE |S SE + —_ N Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 666 667 Appendix 1 Sigs pentane | esses) |iezal tory issess enas eee ony (QZ6] ‘ALIN A) SesuafMoU DID | 00¢ | (C6L] ‘SQIORIAVY) SAUANDLLD DiI | 867. | (CLL) ‘faa rinweastatHos)) sasaap peau | 967. | (LZQT “ZIOHOSHOSY]) Déauin4s DID Ena (O8LT ‘Uadsy) wopamna vest Becca (SE8l AMZSCTVARLD) seq das suloqape (Q6L] SMANNON) symjiquo sulaqa J (ZEegy “tvanasiog) yabn suloqa (Q6L] ANNAN) “opunys suloqag (I8L1 SHOONS) waydo sulagag (6LLI SNASSVULSOUAG) “omoudoudauv sulaqaf J (LOL] ‘SQNVNNI'T) Sope sulaqarg. 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AUC > 0.75) HHR = very high risk (loss >85%; AUC > 0.75) HR = high risk (loss >70%; AUC > 0.75) R = risk (loss >50%; AUC > 0.75) LR = lower risk (loss < 51%; AUC > 0.75) PR = potential risk (any loss or gain; AUC < 0.76) LR with incr = lower risk with gain under full dispersal (AUC > 0.75) climate change risk categories 5 a= a “ S <= a0 — & 5s apie 2050 no dispersal 2080 full dispersal 2080 no dispersal Appendix 3 697 Table App. 3.2: Percentage of European butterfly species in different risk categories under different scenarios (excluding the PR-category) HHHR = extremely high risk (loss >95%; AUC > 0.75) HHR = very high risk (loss >85%; AUC > 0.75) HR = high risk (loss >70%; AUC > 0.75) R = risk (loss >50%; AUC > 0.75) LR = lower risk (loss < 51%; AUC > 0.75) LR with incr = lower risk with gain under full dispersal(AUC > 0.75) climate | climate change risk categories =| risk categories aon CS) EY (Yo species) RAS % Se eee HHHR LR total LR with incr Chmpeies) [BAMBI i) (o species) GRasy | 12| 41| tor] a] oz] oo (0 species) GRAS 1.6 6.1 63.9 17.6 2080 no dispersal (0 species) 698 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies References Ackerly DD (2003) Community assembly, niche conservatism, and adaptive evolution in changing environments. 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Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies abencerragus 254£ acaciae 228 achine 474£ actaca 582£ acteon 94£ adippe 350 admetus 332£ Admiral 388£, 446ff Admiral, Poplar 446f Admiral, Red 388f Admiral, Southern White 450f Admiral, White 448f aegeria 466 aetherte 426£ aethiops S24 agestis 296 Aglais 392 ££ aglaja 348 alberganus 584£ albicans 330£ alveae 36£ alcetas 246£ akiphron 198 alcon 274£ alexanor 120£ alexis 262£ alfacariensis 178£ alveus 18 amandus 314£ andromedae 60£ anteros 802£ anthelea 610£ Anthocharis 128ff antiopa 400£ Apatura 458 ff Aphantopus 502£ Apollo 110ff apollo \14€ Apollo, Clouded 110f Apollo, Small 112f Abporia 142£ aquilo 2B6£ aquilonaris 384£ Species index (of modelled butterflies) Araschnia 408£ arcania 482£ arethusa 604£ Arethusana 604£ arge STA£ argiades 242 arsiolus 248 argus 216 Argus 292ff Argus, Blue 802f Argus, Brown 296f Argus, Geranium 292f Argus, Northern Brown 298f Argus, Scotch 524f Argus, Silvery 304f Argus, Southern Mountain 300f Arrgynnis S44 f£ argyrognomon 280£ Arica 292 ff arion 268£ armoricanus 16£ artaxerxes 298f atalanta 388£ athalia 444£ aurelia 440 £ aurinia 420£ ausonia 138£ avis 2166 baeticus 44£ ballus 212£ bathseba 500£ baton 250£ bavius 256£ belemia 136£ bellargus 824£ bellieri BOE betulae 206£ Blue 230£, 234 £6, 306ff Blue, Adonis 324£ Blue, African Grass 236f Blue, Alcon 274£ Blue, Alpine 288f Blue, Amanda’s 314f Blue, Anomalous 332f Blue, Arctic 286f Blue, Baton 250f Blue, Bavius 256f Blue, Black-eyed 264f Blue, Chalkhill 326£ Blue, Chapman’s 316f Blue, Chequered 258f Blue, Common 318f Blue, Cranberry 282f Blue, Damon 338f Blue, Dusky Large 272f Blue, Eastern Short-tatled 244£ Blue, Eros 320f Blue, Escher’s 308f Blue, False Baton 254£ Blue, Furry 336f Blue, Glandon 284f Blue, Green-underside 262f Blue, Holly 248f Blue, Idas 278f Blue, Iolas 266f Blue, Lang’s Short-tailed 234f Blue, Large 268f Blue, Long-tailed 230f Blue, Mazarine 306f Blue, Meleager’s 322f Blue, Mother-of-peatrl 312f Blue, Osiris 240f Blue, Panoptes 260f Blue, Provencal Short- tailed 246f Blue, Provence Chalkhill 328f Blue, Reverdin’s 280f Blue, Ripart’s Anomalous 334f Blue, Scarce Large 270f Blue, Short-tailed 242f Blue, Silver-studded 276£ Blue, Small 238f Blue, Spanish Chalkhill 330f Blue, Turquoise 310f boeticus 230£ Boloria 364 ££ Species index 707 brassicae 144£ centaureae B4£ dorus 488£ Brenthis 358££ cerisyi 108 dorylas 310£ Brimstone 180ff Charaxes 456£ Dryad 584f Brimstone, Powdered 182f chariclea 372£ dryas 584£ Brintesia 806£ Chazara 608f duponcheli 124 briseis 808f chrysippus 618 edusa 160£ britomartis 442£ chrysotheme 174 egea 398F Brown 464£, 468f£, 504 €f, cinxia 422 embla 528£ S40ff, SSOfF circe 606£ Emperor 458ff Brown, Arran 510f cirstt T4£ Emperor, Freyer’s Purple 458f Brown, Autumn 556f cleopatra 184£ Emperor, Lesser Purple 460f£ Brown, Black 558f Cleopatra 184f Emperor, Purple 462f Brown, Bright-eyed 560f Coenonympha 476f£ epiphron 518 Brown, Dewy 564f Colias 162£f epistygne S42£ Brown, Dusky Meadow 506f = Comma, False 406f erate 166£ Brown, Large Wall 472f Comma 396ff, 406f Erebia 10££ Brown, Lattice 464£ comma 96£ ergane 192£ Brown, Marbled 554f Comma, Southern 398f eriphyle S14£ Brown, Meadow 504f Copper 186ff eros 820f Brown, Mnestra’s 540f Copper, Balkan 202f Erynnis 32f£ Brown, Northern Wall 470f Copper, Grecian 194f escheri 308£ Brown, Oriental Meadow 508f Copper, Large 190f esculi 226£ Brown, Ottoman Brassy 544f = Copper, Lesser Fiery 204f Euchloe 136f£ Brown, Piedmont 562f Copper, Purple-edged 200f eumedon 292£ Brown, Spring 542f Copper, Purple-shot 198f ennomia 304£ Brown, Stygian 552f Copper, Scarce 192f eupheme 134£ Brown, Swiss Brassy 546f Copper, Small 186f euphenoides 130£ Brown, Wall 468f Copper, Sooty 196f euphrosyne 366£ Brown, Water 550f£ Copper, Violet 188f Euplhydryas 410 Brown, Woodland 474f coridon 326£ euryale S12£ bryoniae 156£ cramera 294£ asi S86£ cacaliae 82£ crataegi 142£ Jarinosa 182£ Cacyreus 232 croceus 168f fatua 598 c-album 896f Cupido 238 ff Favonius 208£ callidice 158£ Cyaniris 806£ ferula 580£ Callophrys 214 ff cynthia 412£ Festoon 104ff Camberwell Beauty 400f damon 338£ Festoon, Eastern 108f camilla 448£ Danaus 618£ Festoon, Southern 106f candens 202£ daphne 360£ Festoon, Spanish 104f Carcharodus 36f£ daphnis 322£ Jidia 600£ cardamines 128 daplidice 160£ flocciferus 40£ Cardinal 346f decoloratus 244£ freija 8T4E cardui 390£ deione 434£ Jrigga 380£ carlinae T2f desfontainii 418f Fritillary 340f, 344f, 34866 410ff Carterocephalus 86 ££ dia 376£ Fritillary, Aetherie 426f carthami S6£ diamina 432£ Fritillary, Arctic 372f cassioides S48 didyma 430£ Fritillary, Asian 414f cecilia A98£ disa 580£ Fritillary, Assmann’s 442f Celastrina 248 dispar 190 Fritillary, Balkan 386f celtis B42 dolus 336£ Fritillary, Bog 364f Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies Fritillary, Cranberry 384f Fritillary, Cynthia’s 412f Fritillary, Dark Green 348f Fritillary, Duke of Burgundy 340f Fritillary, False Heath 482f Fritillary, Frejya’s 372f Fritillary, Frigga’s 380 Fritillary, Glanville 422f Fritillary, Grisons 486f Fritillary, Heath 444f Fritillary, High Brown 350f Fritillary, Knapweed 424f Fritillary, Lapland 410f Fritillary, Lesser Marbled 358f Fritillary, Lesser Spotted 428f Fritillary, Marbled 360f Fritillary, Marsh 420f Fritillary, Meadow 438f Fritillary, Nickerl’s 440f Fritillary, Niobe 352f Fritillary, Pallas’ 354f Fritillary, Pearl-bordered 366f Fritillary, Provencal 434f Fritillary, Queen of Spain 356f Fritillary, Scarce 416f Fritillary, Shepherd’s 382f Fritillary, Silver-washed 344f Fritillary, Small Pearl- bordered 370f Fritillary, Spanish 418f Fritillary, Spotted 480f Fritillary, Thor’s 378f Fritillary, Titania’s 368f Fritillary, Twin-spot 362f Fritillary, Weaver’s 876f galathea 568£ gardetta 486£ Gatekeeper 496ff Gatekeeper, Southern 498f Gatekeeper, Spanish 500f Gegenes 100 Geranium Bronze 232f glacials 614£ glandon 284£ Glaucopsyche 262f£ Glider 452ff Glider, Common 452£ Glider, Hungarian 454f ghycerion AB4£ Gonepteryx 180ff gorge 538F gracca 386 Grayling 586ff, 610ff Grayling, Alpine 614f Grayling, Balkan 602f Grayling, Baltic 616f Grayling, Delattin’s 594f Grayling, Eastern Rock 590f Grayling, False 604f Grayling, Freyer’s 598f Grayling, Great Banded 606f Grayling, Norse 612f Grayling, Rock 588f Grayling, Striped 600f Grayling, Tree 596f Grayling, White-banded 610f Grayling, Woodland 586f gruneri 132 Hairstreak 206ff Hairstreak, Black 220f Hairstreak, Blue-spot 222f Hairstreak, Brown 206f Hairstreak, Chapman’s Green 216f Hairstreak, False Ilex 226f Hairstreak, Green 214f Hairstreak, Hex 224f Hairstreak, Provence 212f Hairstreak, Purple 208f Hairstreak, Sloe 228f Hairstreak, Spanish Purple 210f Hairstreak, White-letter 218f Hamearis 340£ Heath 476f, 480ff Heath, Alpine 486f Heath, Chestnut 484£ Heath, Dusky 488f Heath, Eastern Large 480f Heath, Large 476f Heath, Pearly 482f Heath, Russian 492f Heath, Scarce 490f Heath, Small 494f hecate 362 hecla 170 helle 188 hermione 588£ hero 490£ hersamon 204£ Hesperia 96£ Heteropterus 84£ Hipparchia 586f£ hippothoe 200£ hispanus 828 hyale 176£ hyperantus 502£ Hyponephele 506f£ warus 318£ idas 218£ iduna 410£ ila 460£ ilicis QO4£ ines 518£ ino 308£ intermedia 414£ 10 3892£ Tolana 266£ zolas 266£ Iphichdes 116£ iris AB2E Tssoria 856£ jasius A56£ jurtina S04£ jutta 816£ Kirinia 464£ knysna 236 krueperi 146£ lachesis 570£ Laeosopis 210£ L-album 406£ Lampides 230E laodice 3854£ larissa 57 2£ Lasiommata 468f£ lathonia 356£ lavatherae 388£ leander 492£ Leptidea 122ff Leptotes 234£ levana 408£ Libythea 342£ ligea 910£ Limenitis 446 ££ Lineola 9O£ Lopinga 474£ /ucina 840£ /upina 508 Lycaena 186f£ Jycaon S06E machaon 118£ maera 472£ malvae 66£ malvoides 66£ Maniola 504£ mannit 148£ manto 516£ Map 408f marloyi 34£ marshall 2326 maturna 416£ medusa D82f megera 468 melampus S22 Melanargia 566 ££ melanops 264£ melas 558£ Mebhtaea 422 ff meolans 562£ metis 458£ minimus 238f Minois 584£ mnemosyne 110£ muestra DA0£ montana D54£ montensis 800£ morpheus B4£ morset 126£ myrmidone 172£ napi 194 nausithous 21 2f neoridas 556£ Neptis 45266 Nettle-tree Butterfly 342f nictas 804£ niobe 352£ nivescens B12£ norna 612£ nostrodamus 102£ Nymphalis 396££ occttanica 51T6£ Ochlodes 98£ oedippus 478£ oeme 560£ Oeneis 612 ££ onopordi 10£ optilete 282 Orange-tip 128f, 132 Orange-tip, Gruner’s 132f Orange-tip, Sooty 134f orbifer 5O£ orbitulus 2B8£ orientalis 42£ orton 258f osiris QAOE ottomana 194£ ottomana D44£ Painted Lady 390f palaemon 86£ palaeno 164£ pales 382£ pamphilus 494£ pandora 346£ pandrose 564£ panoptes 260£ paphia 844£ Papilio 118f£ Pararge 466£ Parnassius \10f£ parthenoides 438£ Peacock 892f petropolitana 470 pharte 520£ Phengaris 268f£ phicomone 162£ phlacas 186£ phlomidis 46£ phoebe 424f phoebus 112£ Pieris 144 ff pirithous 234£ Plain ‘Tiger 618f Pkebejus 276££ pluto 5386£ podalirius 116£ pohchloros 402 Polommatus 308 polyxena 106£ Pontia 158f£ populi 446£ pronoe 550 proto 52 prani 220f Pseudochazara 610£ Species index 709 pumilio \00E Pyrgus SOfE Pyronia 496 guercus 208£ rapae 150£ reali 122£ reducta 450£ rhamni 180£ rhodopensis AB0£ Ringlet 478f, 502f, 5126, 526ff, 548f Ringlet, Almond-eyed 534f Ringlet, Arctic 530£ Ringlet, Blind 520f Ringlet, Common Brassy 548f Ringlet, de Prunner’s 526f Ringlet, Eriphyle 514f Ringlet, False 478f Ringlet, Lapland 528f Ringlet, Large 512f Ringlet, Lesser Mountain 522f Ringlet, Mountain 518f Ringlet, Silky 538f Ringlet, Sooty 536f Ringlet, Woodland 582f Ringlet, Yellow-spotted 516f ripartii 334£ rivularis AB4£ roboris 210 roxelana 464£ rubi Q14£ rumina \0O4£ russiae SO6£ sappho 452£ Satyr 580ff Satyr, Black 582f Satyr, Great Sooty 580f Satyrium 218 ff Satyrus 580f£ Scolitantides 250££ selene 310£ semele 5925 semiargus 806£ senthes 602 sephirus 290 serratulae 68f£ sertorius 48£ sidae 58£ stlricolus 88£ Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies sinapis 122f Skipper 32ff Skipper, Alpine Grizzled 60f Skipper, Carline 72f Skipper, Chequered 86f Skipper, Dingy 32f Skipper, Dusky Grizzled 62f Skipper, Essex 90f Skipper, Foulquier’s Grizzled 80f Skipper, Grizzled 66f Skipper, Inky 34f Skipper, Large 98f Skipper, Large Chequered 84f Skipper, Large Grizzled 78f Skipper, Lulworth 94f Skipper, Mallow 36f Skipper, Marbled 38f Skipper, Mediterranean 102f Skipper, Northern Chequered 88f Skipper, Northern Grizzled 64f Skipper, Oberthtir’s Grizzled 76f Skipper, Olive 68f Skipper, Orbed Red- underwing 50f Skipper, Oriental Marbled 42f Skipper, Persian 46f Skipper, Pigmy 100f Skipper, Red-underwing 48f Skipper, Rosy Grizzled 70f Skipper, Safflower 56f Skipper, Sage 52f Skipper, Silver-spotted 96f Skipper, Small 92f Skipper, Southern Marbled 44f Skipper, Tessellated 54f Skipper, Tufted Marbled 40f Skipper, Warren’s 82f Skipper, Yellow-banded 58f Speckled Wood 466f Spialia 46 ££ spini 222 statilinus 596£ styx 552 Swallowtail 116ff Swallowtail, Scarce 116f Swallowtail, Southern 120f syhanus 98 syhestris 92 syriaca 590E Syrichtus S2fE tages 82 tagis 140 teleius 210£ tessellum SAE The Hermit 608f Thecla 206£ thersites 316£ thore 378£ Thymelicus QOfE titania 368£ tithonus 496£ tityrus 196£ Tomares 212£ Tortoiseshell 394f, 402ff ‘Tortoiseshell, Large 402f Tortoiseshell, Small 394£ Tortoiseshell, Yellow- legged 404f triaria 526£ trivia 428£ tullia 476£ Two-tailed Pasha 456f tyndarus SA6£ urticae 894£ Vanessa 888 ££ varia 436£ vicrama def virgaureae 192£ voleensis S94F w-album 218f warrenensis B2£ White 122ff, 136ff, S66ff White, Balkan Marbled 572f White, Bath 160f White, Black-veined 142f White, Dappled 138f White, Eastern Wood 124f White, Esper’s Marbled 566f White, Fenton’s Wood 126f White, Green-striped 136f White, Green-veined 154f White, Iberian Marbled 570f White, Italian Marbled 574£ White, Krueper’s Small 146f White, Large 144f White, Marbled 568f White, Mountain Green- veined 156f White, Mountain Small 152f White, Peak 158f White, Portuguese Dappled 140f White, Small 150f White, Southern Small 148f White, Spanish Marbled 578f White, Western Marbled 576f White, Wood 122f xanthomelas 404£ Yellow 162ff Yellow, Berger’s Clouded 178f Yellow, Clouded 168f Yellow, Danube Clouded 172£ Yellow, Eastern Pale Clouded 166£ Yellow, Lesser Clouded 174£ Yellow, Moorland Clouded 164£ Yellow, Mountain Clouded 162f Yellow, Northern Clouded 170£ Yellow, Pale Clouded 176f Zegris 134£ Zerynthia 104 ff Zizeeria 236